Coronavirus: Labor unrest grows as Daniel Andrews botches crisis management

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews. Picture: Daniel Pockett

At the end of last week an almost unthinkable event took place – a number of Victorian ALP government members counted the numbers to mount a challenge to the disastrous leadership of premier Daniel Andrews.

They got close but in the end the numbers were not there and now everyone is complete denial. Two forces drove the numbers canvass. The horror of the ALP’s political polls (confirmed by the Liberals) shows a 20 per cent swing against the Andrews government. If the Victorian swing extends to the local council election next month – as seems likely – then a generation of ALP up and comers will be wiped out. And secondly, a large number of well meaning human beings, who are also ALP Victorian politicians, know they have to tell their children and grandchildren that, unlike politicians in any other state, via their bad policies and woeful administration they caused or contributed to the death of hundreds of people.

It’s a terrible personal burden.

Andrews is a political dictator who comes across as a strong leader. But, sadly, he is not a chief executive who weighs up the view of many groups before making a decision. Like all dictators Andrews relies more on his gut instincts than advice from others. Business people who attend the Andrews advice committees say he rarely listens. In the latest Victorian aid package the payroll tax deferral will scare the banks. Prior to COVID-19, the best example of Andrews disregard for commercial outcomes was in the infamous gas bans where somehow gas that did not require fracking got mixed up with the fracking bans. The fact that the bans on Victoria’s immense non fracked gas reserves sent gas prices and energy costs through the roof just didn’t register.

When the daily infection rate exceeded 700 Andrews was right that the only way to bring the rate down was via harsh isolation.

But what frustrates ALP members is that they now know that provided a series of co-ordinated alternative strategies are introduced there is absolutely no need for prolonged harsh restrictions that will send the state into recession for many years. The alternative strategies have been successful in other states and will work in Victoria. But as so often happens with dictators once they are headed in a direction nothing will change them.

The alternative strategy starts with a series of measures that Victoria should have embraced from day one. Testing must be widespread and cover people without infection as well as those with infections. A big proportion of those who contract COVID-19 ---particularly younger people---do not have symptoms but pass the infection on to others. And the results of testing must be conveyed fast — not the old five to eight days delay that sent infections skyrocketing and killed countess people.

And at the same time there needs to be a proper contact tracing system.

A number of business people plus some the genuine ALP politicians who actually went into the Victorian contact tracing system a month or two ago were shocked. It was like going into a 20th century facility with antiquated methods. It has improved but the NSW system should be put into Victoria and fast.

The disastrous quarantine systems have been well documented, and again improvements have been made but there is still a long way to go.

Undertaking those three measures is the first step to not requiring a severe shut down. And if they are not implemented then when restrictions are eased infections will rise again. The ALP members who were doing the counting understood the danger.

But then there are a series of other strategies that are required. In particular its necessary to divide the task of controlling the infection.

The first differential is the difference between capital cities and regional centres. To be fair Andrews understands this issue. But even in regional Victoria there still must be intensive testing and contact tracing.

The second division is the nursing home and aged care facilities. This represents a huge chunk of Victorian deaths and is a problem that is basically confined to Victoria because all the other states have learned from the early NSW problems. In all states except Victoria the state and the commonwealth are working well together. What’s important in monitoring the overall infection rates is that the age care figures be kept separate. To the extent that the problem is in aged care the state does not need to be shut down so severely.

In terms of infection rates, it is people in their 20s, 30s and 40s where the infection rate is at its highest boosted by those without symptoms. But death rates are dominated by people aged above 70 although there is a significant number dying in their 60s. So rather than shut down the whole state there needs to be restrictions on the intermingling of younger people and older people. Younger people mixing with older people will need to be tested far more. Again, this does not require shutting everything down.

A number of government members have discovered that in Dubai before people can board an aeroplane they must have undertaken tests at least three days before. And further testing is undertaken as they board the aircraft and later. That sort of regime has the potential to not only get our aircraft moving again but allowing more people to attend the Boxing Day test and the Australian Open and other major events.

What we have learned from other countries is that driving the infection rate down to very low levels doesn’t actually work unless the procedures outlined above are adopted.

In theory if Andrews adopted a scheme akin to the one set out above there would be no need to dump him. But it is extremely difficult for dictators to change direction.

That’s why it is likely that in due course the numbers will be counted again.