Australia must prepare for Hong Kong exodus

Protesters march in Hong Kong in a rally against a now suspended extradition law. Picture: Getty Images

All Australians need to understand that that we are going to be an integral part of the “end game” in Hong Kong.

All of us were stunned at the enormous number of Hong Kong residents who came to protest last weekend. The organisers say two million people turned up. Police said it was 338,000. So, let’s say it was one million --- 10 times the capacity of the MCG.

If we were stunned, just imagine what the reaction must have been among the inner circle of rulers who surround China’s President Xi Jinping.

My China-following friends say that almost certainly those at the top in China will have made two decisions -- first, this is a dispute that they must win for the long-term future of China which is to include a Hong Kong where the residents obey the same rules as those in Beijing.

And second, that 2019 is the wrong time to implement the long-term plan. President Xi is about to go to North Korea and there will never be a better time to do a trade deal with the US because President Donald Trump wants a deal as part of his re-election campaign.

China thinks long-term and so must Australia. There will be short term concessions made to settle the Hong Kong residents, but those concessions will not change the ultimate goal.

Those million plus people on the streets were not radical students but realistic Hong Kong families, most of whom knew they are buying time.

Like President Xi they will be preparing their own long-term strategies. Some will set their goal on going to the US and Canada. But most will look Down Under.

Many will study our rules and do everything they can to have an Australian residence where they can retreat to when China makes a push to take control of Hong Kong.

But most likely the majority will seek to come here (or the US and Canada) without advance strategic planning.

Some 30 years ago in 1989 after the Tiananmen Square massacre the late Bob Hawke, then prime minister, invited 40,000 Chinese students to stay in Australia. It changed the nation.

Scott Morrison or his successor will face a similar decision, but the number of people involved will be many times 40,000 and the change to the nation will be even more profound.

Just as we prepare for sudden emergencies our national government (and opposition) must prepare for the inevitable long-term consequences of one million plus people taking over the streets of Hong Kong.

Protesters march in Hong Kong. Picture: AP

China’s rulers now control the nation via an incredible social points system. A Tiananmen Square-style disaster in Hong Kong would endanger stability on the mainland. President Xi and those close to him are likely to implement their long-term goal in a way that is much smarter than the current clumsy attempt by the current local ruler Carrie Lam.

Here in Australia last year we saw China rap us over the knuckles for clumsy foreign policy mistakes. We saw ships carrying our coal unable to land and other measures that affected the nation’s bottom line.

I fear that just as we do not have the foreign policy skills to play a clever game in the current China-US trade war, we will be just as unsophisticated when it comes to the next round of Hong Kong disputes.

When the Morrison government was returned, we saw a big increase in Chinese buying of Sydney and Melbourne apartments. I think it would be stretching the bow too far to relate that buying to the current Hong Kong dispute.

But Hong Kong residents who understand the challenge the territory faces and who have sufficient capital will seek to buy real estate in Australia or Canada. They want somewhere to go should the going in Hong Kong get too tough.

Beijing may clamp down on money leaving Hong Kong or they might even encourage the affluent citizens of Hong Kong to have a way of leaving.

The rate of overseas Chinese buying Australian real estate during the remainder of 2019 will be an important litmus test for what is ahead.

The challenge in Canberra will be to find a way to take the migrants from Hong Kong while not enraging China to cut off our revenue base.

If we are smart, we can be part of the solution to China’s Hong Kong problem.

But we need to make sure that the apartments we sell to the Chinese are built properly.

In Sydney we have seen residents of two towers being forced to leave their home because of bad work. Most were Chinese.

We will have our own set of problems if we sell to the Chinese leaving Hong Kong apartments with shoddy workmanship.

Meanwhile the debate over migration is set to take on a new dimension.