ANZ job ads data the latest sign of stalling labour market recovery

The latest job advertisements figures for July are further evidence the labour market recovery has lost momentum.

Jobs ads in July continued to recover from the lows of April and May, but there is evidence the Victorian outbreak has weighed on the labour market.

Job ads recorded their second solid month of gains in July, although the pace of the recovery has slowed amid “worrying signs” on the impact of the Victorian lockdowns on the labour market, new data from ANZ shows.

Average daily listings in July increased by 17 per cent to 104,916, on a seasonally adjusted basis, after bouncing by more than 40 per cent in June from a low of around 63,500 in April and May – the darkest early days of the health crisis and associated social distancing restrictions.

But the number of monthly ads online and in print remains far below the pre-COVID level of around 150,000.

ANZ senior economist Catherine Birch also pointed to a slowdown in the pace of the job ads recovery in the second half of July.

“The second wave of COVID-19 cases and return to stage 3 restrictions in Melbourne and the Mitchell Shire have undoubtedly weighed on the recovery in labour demand so far,” Ms Birch said.

Ms Birch pointed to other “worrying signs”: the number of payroll jobs, as measured by the ABS, went backwards over the three weeks to early July, she noted, “and some industries that were less affected earlier in the pandemic, such as construction and professional services, may now be suffering lagged impacts”.

ANZ economists recently downgraded their forecasts for the economy this year as a result of the Victorian second wave of infections, “but the move to stage four restrictions in Melbourne and stage three in regional Victoria announced on Sunday worsens the outlook,” Ms Birch said.

“We think additional fiscal measures will be needed sooner rather than later to support households, workers and businesses through this very tough period.”

Josh Frydenberg this morning flagged he was considering easing eligibility requirements for JobKeeper 2.0, in particular in relation to which periods businesses need to have suffered falls in income to qualify for the wage subsidy program beyond September.