America’s unfolding double tragedy

Donald Trump’s refusal to concede defeat in the election is likely to have a corrosive and long-lasting impact. Picture: AFP

The double tragedy unfolding in the United States is like a horror movie that you can’t stop watching.

The two horrors – the blowout in COVID-19 cases and the collapse of national governance – are related, of course, but there is possibly more long-term damage being caused by the latter than the nearly 2000 deaths per day from the virus, as horrifying as that statistic is.

America’s 592 cases per day per million people is twice that of the next worst country, the UK, and seven times the global average, and there is no sign of that peaking or any reason to think it will.

With the incoming Biden administration being prevented from undertaking a normal transition, and unable to prepare to take over managing the pandemic on January 20, nothing will be done nationally until well after that. Goodness knows what the case numbers and deaths could be by the end of summer, or by the time a vaccine is widely available, whenever that might be.

It means the American economy is almost certainly in for a second recession in 2021 as state lockdowns and voluntary safety measures by a panicked population roll through the country.

Maybe a double-dip recession will be prevented by one or both of those messenger RNA vaccines that are being developed by Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna being rushed out before Christmas, but that seems a tall logistical order.

More likely the US dollar will weaken, leaving other countries like Australia grappling with a strong exchange rate, and even the US sharemarket’s blithe unconcern will have to break at some point, you would think, although it’s true that many of the biggest companies are beneficiaries of the “stay at home” investing theme.

The dreadful impact of COVID-19 on the US will hopefully be relatively short-lived, although they have been trying hard to prolong it by turning mask-wearing and other safety measures into a libertarian political issue.

An anti-shutdown protest in Columbus, Ohio. Picture: AFP

But the other American tragedy – the President’s sedition – is likely to be more corrosive and longer-lasting.

That’s right: sedition. It’s defined as conduct designed to incite rebellion against the constitution and established authority, which is precisely what he is doing.

But in many ways, Donald Trump’s behaviour isn’t the worst thing: it was well-flagged, unsurprising and pathetic.

The worst thing is the fact that one of the parties in this two-party state - the Republican Party - has given up all pretence of acting in the national interest and is openly interested in power for its own sake, and that of its donors.

It’s why we can only say that Trump’s attempts to overturn the election “probably” won’t succeed, even though Biden won more electoral college votes than he did in 2016. There seems to be no limit to what the Republicans will do, so we can’t be sure.

We’ve watched the party become basically Trump’s party, but now in enabling his refusal to allow a proper transition and worse, his attempt to persuade state legislatures to ignore the election and send Republican delegates to the electoral college in December, they are not only joining the attempted subversion of this election but also the idea of no taxation without representation.

That slogan energised the American Revolution against British rule. The Republican party is basically saying they want the taxation (of everyone but their donors of course) but not the democracy that goes with it.

They are setting a new low bar for right-wing parties around the world, and for future would-be American despots who could well be more competent and smarter than Trump (which wouldn’t be difficult) and are causing immense damage to institutions that could take years to fix.

For example, Trump has decapitated the Defence Department and installed sycophants, presumably with the idea that as things get ugly, he can deploy troops in the street to quell dissent.

Yesterday the New York Times reported that Trump’s political appointees throughout the public service are going to “extraordinary lengths” to prevent Joe Biden from rolling back his legacy.

“They are filling vacancies on scientific panels, pushing to complete rules that weaken environmental standards, nominating judges and rushing their confirmations through the Senate, and trying to eliminate health care regulations that have been in place for years.”

Trump supporters at a “stop the steal” protest in Atlanta, Georgia. Picture: AFP

There are even reports that Trump was keen to launch a strike against Iran, but was persuaded not to by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

And over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin joined in the wrecking party by refusing to extend an emergency lending program to the Federal reserve, and demanding that any leftover money be given back.

It’s true that not much money actually went out as a result of this program, so ending it might not make much difference, but the existence of that Treasury backstop gave banks confidence to lend when it was announced in early April and ending it looks like petty sabotage. Certainly the Fed reacted angrily and swiftly to Mnuchin’s announcement.

But America is not an oligarchy, is it? And its institutions and democracy will hold, won’t they?

And vaccines will arrive in the nick of time … won’t they?

* Alan Kohler is Editor in Chief of Eureka Report