A third mistake by Victoria will mean it’s time for intervention

Police patrol in central Melbourne as the city faces an extension of stage four restrictions. Picture: Getty Images

The state of Victoria is in grave danger of making its third catastrophic mistake in dealing with COVID-19.

The first two mistakes have left the state in a perilous position, with widespread employment destruction and capital loss.

The bureaucrats and politicians might get lucky with their latest gamble but the odds are against them. It is becoming increasingly clear that the state and its bureaucracy simply don’t have the skills to manage a crisis of this magnitude. The task is made harder by the fact that the bureaucrats and politicians know their previous mistakes are the main reason for the Victorian crisis being worse than other states, so morale is low, compounding the dangers.

If the current set of strategies fail then the Commonwealth will need to look at all constitutional options to take control of the ailing state.

The first Victorian mistake - hotel quarantine - has been well publicised and is now the subject of a government-appointed inquiry. And that inquiry is clearly showing that nobody took responsibility in the quarantine/hotel operation so decision-making was simply passed from department to department. The bureaucracy broke down. I think the word chaotic is an apt description of the quarantine administrative process.

The unwillingness of anyone to take responsibility is multiplied by the fact that, if there is an occupational health and safety conviction, the minister and senior bureaucrats in the department involved are in danger of being charged with industrial manslaughter which carries a maximum $16.5 million fine and 25 years in jail.

The state is now paying a price for the bureaucratic and ministerial fear created by the industrial manslaughter legislation passed in November.

In situations like this fear can make matters worse not better.

The second past mistake has not been as well documented as the quarantine fiasco. Again it was caused by the lack of decision-making and administrative mistakes by the Victorian bureaucracy, which has become bloated by years of massive overrecruitment.

Some months ago, Victoria decided, correctly, to undertake a program of massive testing of the population, including those with symptoms and those without symptoms.

With the virus at an early stage of infection this was an excellent decision. But like the quarantine mess the system again broke down. The task of informing people who were infected was incredibly bureaucratic and infected people were not notified quickly enough.

Because they had not been notified of infection, many of those carrying the COVID-19 virus without symptoms thought they were free from infection and left their homes and infected more people. The mess was compounded because there simply were not enough contact tracing people to process the mounting infection rates that were discovered by the increased testing.

One of the great problems in curbing the infection rate in all countries and states is that a large number of people become infected with the virus but show no symptoms.They still pass it on.

And that’s why vast testing is required, supported by fast notification and enormous resources devoted to contact tracing. But now, although the known infection rate in Victoria is much higher than NSW, the Victorian testing rate is lower. This means that large numbers of infected people are spreading the virus despite the population movement restrictions. Obviously not everybody can be tested but vast testing and quick notification plus massive contact tracing works. NSW is seeing the benefits and it jumps on any outbreaks.

The Victorian strategy of trashing the economy but not testing those without symptoms is foolhardy. The commonwealth knows Victoria has insufficient contact tracing and other capacities and offers help. It is not known whether there is sufficient Victorian capacity to make sure those in home quarantine honour their obligation. Sadly the whole process has become bureaucratic, undermining the great work if individuals.

Victoria is currently undergoing a debate as to whether the current virus shutdown should be continued or should be substantially relaxed. I am not going to enter that debate except to say that Victoria can’t stand much more of the “medicine”.

Let’s for a moment assume the government is right that shutting down for a couple more weeks is the only alternative.

But as the state is not testing/contract tracing properly then, given the large number of infected people without symptoms, there is great risk that even if the infection rate falls it will rise again in the early stages of a relaxation.

Daniel Andrews, during Sunday’s announcement of Victoria’s path out of lockdown. Picture: Getty Images

I ran across the absurdity of the current Victorian strategy in July and my comment under the heading “Daniel Andrews must wake up or stand down” was eerily correct.

I had been contacted by a company with 300 to 400 employees where one had become infected. The company immediately reacted in accordance with the protocols and, as far as it could determine, those who might have had contact with the infected employee were tested and sent home for quarantine. Specialised cleaners were ordered for a deep clean. But just as important was the need to test the remaining employees because the direct contact estimations were a guess at best.

And so, the employees were sent to the local testing station but were told that because they didn’t have symptoms there would be no test.

Executives were forced to help employees tell lies to other testers to get the tests done. That disastrous testing policy is still is still in place and is the fundamental reason why the total shut down is “required”.

The damage to the state of Victoria and the nation of these errors is enormous.

If the current set of high-risk strategies does not work quickly or any lower infection rate is not maintained then the commonwealth needs to devise a strategy to intervene.