Macquarie buying more Origin Energy shares throws spotlight back on AustralianSuper

Macquarie Capital was buying up more shares in Origin Energy, headed by Frank Calabria. Picture: Britta Campion / The Australian

Macquarie Capital was buying up more shares in Origin Energy on Tuesday, leading some to conclude AustralianSuper was in the market increasing its holding.

The Australian-based investment bank has worked for the country’s largest superannuation fund for its last two raids on the takeover target and the understanding this time among those in the market is that AustralianSuper is trying to block Origin’s $16bn buyout deal by gaining enough shares to get to 19.9 per cent.

On Monday, it lifted its holding to about 16.5 per cent after increasing its holding by just over 1 per cent weeks earlier.

AustralianSuper has reiterated its plan to vote against the Brookfield and EIG buyout proposal for Origin Energy on November 23.

The bidders are planning to launch a takeover bid for Origin in the event that the scheme vote does not succeed with a minimum acceptance of 50.1 per cent.

Origin Energy shares closed on Monday up 1.5 per cent to $8.78 and closed on Tuesday at $8.50.

Should AustralianSuper get to 19.9 per cent, as appears to be the case, a buyout by way of a Scheme of Arrangement vote looks to be effectively dead.

To succeed, there needs to be 75 per cent of voted shares in favour of the offer.

The offer for the scheme of arrangement is $9.53 a share, equating to a market value of $16bn.

A takeover would be more costly from a funding and tax perspective, but the closer it is to the $9.53 per share offer price, the greater chance it has of success.

The plan for Brookfield and EIG was for Brookfield to take Origin’s energy retail business and EIG to take its APLNG gas business.

Should it gain a share of over 50 per cent in the business, it would then hold enough power to push through a break up of the business.

Some had earlier thought that time was running out for AustralianSuper to amass more shares, as any acquisition of more stock to block the vote needed to be carried out by before next week.

Brookfield and EIG are advised by Citi, JPMorgan and UBS on the deal that AustralianSuper believes undervalues the company.