Only a small amount of the buying activity by Macquarie Capital in Origin Energy was linked to AustralianSuper on Tuesday night.
With Macquarie – AustralianSuper’s broker – in the market, some suspected the group was moving from a holding of 16.5 per cent to 19.9 per cent. But it is understood the acquisition of more shares was less than that.
Yet now some are wondering whether Origin Energy’s suitors, Brookfield and EIG, call off the scheme-of-arrangement vote next week as proxy votes start coming in and will offer the consortium an idea as to whether the proposal will succeed.
The nation’s largest superannuation fund is opposed to the bid.
It is understood that the suitors will lob a takeover offer and buy shares on market to get to more than 50.1 per cent if the vote fails.
For a buyout to proceed via a scheme of arrangement, more than 75 per cent of votes need to be in favour of the transaction.
Origin Energy shares closed on Wednesday at $8.57. The offer for the scheme of arrangement is $9.53 a share, equating to a market value of $16bn.
A takeover would be more costly from a funding and tax perspective, but the closer it is to the $9.53-a-share offer price, the greater chance it has of success.
The plan for Brookfield and EIG was for Brookfield to take Origin’s energy retail business and EIG to take its APLNG business.
Brookfield and EIG are advised by Citi, JPMorgan and UBS.
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