Whether AustralianSuper returns to make another play for its takeover target Infratil largely depends on the outcome of the sales process of the $2.39bn wind and solar farm owner Tilt Renewables, say market experts.
The superannuation fund giant had its earlier $5.1bn offer for Infratil rebuffed.
The Australian and New Zealand-listed Infratil owns infrastructure assets like airports, electricity generators and telecommunications networks.
It owns a 65.6 per cent stake in Tilt Renewables and has placed that up for sale as part of its defence strategy.
Should a deal proceed, the thinking is that AustralianSuper is unlikely to win Infratil’s shareholders over, but if Infratil opts to hold the investment it could once again become a target.
Some believe AustralianSuper would return with another offer swiftly should this be the case.
Goldman Sachs is the Infratil defence adviser, but Lazard is working for Tilt and is involved in the sale process.
Suitors are being encouraged to make offers for the entire company, and the contest is expected to come to a head on March 12 when final bids are due.
Through to the second round are understood to be APA Group, advised by UBS, Canada’s CDPQ, advised by ICA Partners, ICG with Engie, advised by Azure Capital, and AGL Energy and QIC’s PARF entity in conjunction with existing shareholder Mercury Energy.
Citi is working with Mercury while Bank of America is helping AGL and QIC.
Most industry analysts believe APA is well placed, with better cost synergies than other bidders and an efficient balance sheet.
As an aside, AGL is reassessing its business model, which could lead to a demerger of its electricity business or asset sales.
Most expect Macquarie Capital to be on the ticket to help AGL assess transaction options.
Elsewhere, some are anticipating that things with takeover target Bingo Industries could heat up this week.
CPE Capital with Macquarie Infrastructure and Real Assets had offered $3.50 per share or $2.3bn for the skip bin provider and waste management operator before carrying out due diligence.
The thinking is that the consortium will lift its offer to about $3.90 per share, including franking credits.
Expectations are that Bingo’s major shareholder Ian Malouf and CEO Daniel Tartak will retain some ownership.
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