A number of press commentators and politicians are confusing two very different JobKeeper issues.
The first is whether Treasurer Josh Frydenberg was too generous in his 2020 JobKeeper package and did not leave himself enough money to properly cushion the delta variant. He is unlikely to admit a miscalculation in public, but I suspect that if Josh Frydenberg had his time again he might have kept some JobKeeper money back for the next variation of the virus.
The second and entirely separate issue is whether the Senate of 2021 should break 121 years of tax information confidentiality in an effort to cause JobKeeper mischief by attacking family businesses and helping unions create a family business hit-list.
Let’s start with the overspending issue. It is very legitimate for an opposition of either party to attack the government of the day on such a matter, given the very large sums that were involved and the deficit accumulation created.
Although he has never said it in public I suspect that if Josh Frydenberg had his time again he would have stimulated at a lower level last year and kept more money for later variations of the virus. But that’s very much a hindsight judgment and ignores the crisis that was spreading around the world.
Over the decades I have had entrepreneurs and chief executives of large companies weeping on the phone as they were hit by major falls in asset values, including shares and property.
But March /April 2020 was very different. I am in touch with many smaller enterprises and I have never experienced such a widespread sense of anguish and hopelessness that captured the small and medium business community at that time. Some almost seemed suicidal.
I have no doubt that Frydenberg experienced the same phenomenon. JobKeeper was one of the most effective stimulation packages in the world because Frydenberg set clear rules and the Australian Taxation Office put its number one team on the job to implement those instructions. (That’s a lesson for many other areas of government) When you add the superannuation release and other measures it was a huge boost.
After Easter last year you could see signs of consumer response. And it gathered momentum so that wide areas of the business community, but particularly those involved in building appliances furniture etc, started to see turnovers that could not have been conceived back in March and early April, 2000. Few companies benefited more than Harvey Norman and it was very reasonable and good PR that he returned the money.
Many enterprises that received JobKeeper because of the March/April slump prospered in the second half of 2020 are now back on the ropes. But that period of prosperity has given them sufficient strength to struggle through until 80 per cent vaccination is achieved.
And Josh Frydenberg was very clear back in April 2020. Those who estimated their revenue fall would be reviewed by the ATO and might have to return the money if their estimates were wrong. Only those who legitimately experienced revenue falls of 30 per cent in the March /April 2020 criteria period were certain to keep their JobKeeper money.
Meanwhile the controversy will continue and it is a legitimate area of opposition criticism.
But the ALP’s attempt to destroy 121 years of Australian tax office confidentiality of information is in a totally different arena. If it succeeds the nation will need to live with the consequences for many decades.
Once that confidentiality tradition is broken there will be many more occasions where the Senate will exercise its power to force the release of material provided to the ATO in confidence. Indeed it threatens to further undermine confidence in the tax system.
Anyone could have determined what Harvey Norman received in JobKeeper and that applies to most other large corporations. Accordingly large corporations are not on the ALP Senate hit list. They want to uncover family businesses where unions have not been able to attack because there is there is not enough data and there are too many of them.
If the Senate forces the release of the confidential information the union movement will have 10,000 targets where it knows the approximate turnover from their JobKeeper receipts plus the number of employees. It’s manna from heaven for unions so the ALP is right behind the drive.
And as I commented earlier in the week, in local communities the family pub, newsagent /post office, real estate agent, successful plumbers, electricians who built up their business will have their personal affairs uncovered with an implication that JobKeeper was an ill-gotten gain that they should give back.
It’s true many of those businesses did benefit after the recovery in May/June and beyond but they are now suffering again. Some in the ALP are saying that disclosing JobKeeper and employee employment information is not covered under tax confidentiality. The Australian tax commissioner has clearly defined it as confidential information but I guess Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese can claim that he knows more about the subject than the commissioner.
Sadly it is becoming very hard for politicians to admit error.
Scott Morrison should have apologised for his actions in the Australia Post watches affair. Anthony Albanese is making a similar error in tax confidentiality release. Believe it or not politicians are human and humans can make a mistake. Albanese should demand that his senators adhere to the 121-year old convention and not use the current JobKeeper controversy to dig the boot into family businesses.