BusinessNow: Live coverage of financial markets and companies, plus analysis and opinion
The local market is in danger of closing below the 100-day moving average.
- Giants set for $23bn coal boost
- Banks, Coca-Cola weigh on ASX
- New Chinese owner for Genworth
- Kohler on the property crash
- Goldmans values Alinta at up to $5.19bn
- Zenitas to raise $30m via placement
- Bravura IPO priced
Welcome to the BusinessNow blog for Monday, October 24.
7.28pm:More SMSFs are in property
Rosemary Steinfort
Self-managed super funds have made some very interesting — and revealing — changes to their asset allocation as reported by the ATO in the five years to June 2016.
The falling allocation to cash is of close to 3 per cent and an increase in geared investments classified as “limited recourse borrowings” of over 3 per cent are the most significant moves. Investment in property has remained reasonable static.
But, the data categories of the ATO may not tell the full story regarding where SMSF investors are directing their funds. Read more.
7.09pm:Don’t bank on battery power
Matt Ridley
If only we could store electricity many of our energy problems would be over, but we are miles away from cracking that.
Batteries are no longer boring. Whether catching fire in Samsung Note 7s, being hailed as the answer to future electricity grids thanks to breakthrough chemical innovation, or being manufactured on a gigantic scale in Elon Musk’s gigafactory in Nevada, batteries are box office. And though battery technology is indeed advancing by leaps and bounds, there is a considerable quantity of balderdash being talked about it too. Read more.
6.43pm: Rate cut chances overlooked?
David Rogers
It’s a big week for financial markets, with Wednesday’s CPI data likely to determine whether or not the Reserve Bank cuts interest rates again next month.
With core inflation remaining well below the RBA’s target zone, the market now could be attaching too small a probability to a November rate cut, even though base effects caused by last year’s slump in energy prices should prevent further deterioration in the inflation rate.
Economists expect the average of core inflation measures monitored by the RBA to creep up to 1.55 per cent for the September quarter, versus 1.5 per cent in the June quarter. But even though the RBA has already cut rates twice in response to the inflation slowdown at the start of the year, anything lower than 1.5 per cent is bound to reinvigorate rate cut bets — it’s just a question of degree.
Indeed the risks around the CPI release may be a bit asymmetric. Read more.
6.19pm:European stocks push upwards
European stocks pushed tentatively higher in opening deals on Monday, after an edgy session earlier in Asia, as investors mulled the US interest rate outlook.
In initial trade, London’s benchmark FTSE 100 index gained 0.4 percent to 7,049.15 points compared with Friday’s closing level.
In the eurozone, Frankfurt’s DAX 30 rose 0.3 percent to 10,743.87 and in Paris the CAC 40 also increased 0.3 percent to stand at 4,551.73 points. AFP.
5.41pm:Tokyo stocks close higher
Tokyo shares edged up Monday after a see-saw session, with some investors keeping to the sidelines ahead of Japan Inc’s latest earnings season.
The benchmark Nikkei 225 index recouped earlier losses to end up 0.29 per cent, or 49.83 points, at 17,234.42. The Topix index of all first-section shares rose 0.17 per cent, or 2.32 points, to 1,367.61.
“We’re lacking a clear sense of direction as more and more shares move on earnings,” said Tomoichiro Kubota, a senior analyst at Matsui Securities in Tokyo.
“It’s difficult to say exactly how much effect it’ll have on the overall market, but this week we’ll keep being shaken this way and that by individual earnings,” he told Bloomberg News.
Nintendo tumbled 4.82 percent to 23,970 yen, losing more ground after Friday’s 6.54 percent drop as investors appeared unimpressed by a sneak peek at its long-awaited new games console.
AFP
5.33pm:Aussie dollar edges back
The Australian dollar has fallen against its US counterpart as markets await the release of key inflation figures later this week.
At 5pm (AEDT) on Monday, the local unit was trading at US76.25 cents, down from US76.38c on Friday. Read more.
5.09pm:Healthcare injury continues
Daniel Palmer
Australia’s leading private hospital operators Healthscope and Ramsay Health Care are reeling for a second straight session, as analysts readjust expectations following the release of a weak profit outlook from Healthscope on Friday.
The sell-off wasn’t quite as intense on day two, although Healthscope (HSO) had shed 5.88 per cent by the close of today’s session and its peer gave back a further 4.55 per cent. Read more.
4.36pm:Stocks close in the red
The Australian sharemarket has begun the week in the red as losses in crude prices through the Asian session weighed on energy stocks and the healthcare sector continued to be hampered by a soft trading update by Healthscope on Friday.
At the close, the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index retreated 21.8 points, or 0.4 per cent, to 5,408.5, while the broader All Ordinaries index dipped 24.8 points, or 0.45 per cent, to 5,489.1.
The healthcare space slid the most, retreating 1.9 per cent through the session, largely due to the negative influence of Healthscope and its peer Ramsay Health Care.
A surprise profit warning from the former wiped 19 per cent from its shares Friday, with a further 5.9 per cent stripped today, while Ramsay shed a further 4.5 per cent on top of a 6 per cent dive on Friday. Read more.
4.10pm:Whirlpool ‘dumped faulty goods’
Ben Butler
US whitegoods giant Whirlpool offloaded more than 3000 faulty products in Australia, including ovens, refrigerators and washing machines, by misleading its local distributor about how often they failed, a court has heard.
Australian company Castel Electronics claims Whirlpool lied about how often products broke down in negotiations over distribution because executives knew the truth was a “deal breaker”.
The lies were part of a plan, Project Phoenix, to revitalise Whirlpool’s ailing Oceania division, which was losing $1 million a month, the Federal Court heard.
Court documents show that among poor-quality goods transferred to Castel after it became Whirlpool’s Australian distributor three years ago were the Cabrio washing machine, which used twice as much water as advertised, “sometimes emitted smoke from the underside”, and had a failure rate of 84 per cent, as well as faulty ovens and fridges. Read more.
3.29pm: Inghams backers shake off doubts
Backers of the $1.3 billion-plus poultry producer Inghams Enterprises float continued to shake off suggestions that the deal may struggle to gain support on Monday, as they maintained that the investment banks behind the initial public offering were tipped to scale back orders from retail investors.
It comes as bids on the IPO by retail brokers are due tomorrow. Read more.
2.34pm:Half of ‘innovative’ companies, aren’t
It’s been a prime ministerial buzz word for months but if you don’t know what “innovation” actually means, you’re not alone.
Almost half the Australian businesses who rate themselves as innovative actually aren’t, according to research from Commonwealth Bank, which says many firms are mistaking improvements for innovation.
The bank says 82 per cent of firms believe they are innovating but that only 44 per cent are doing so, according to standards recognised by the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development).
“For example, if you take a very highly innovative global firm like Apple, when they’re launching a new iPhone, launching a new colour range or changing the basic dimensions of the phone would be an improvement,” Commonwealth Bank business and private banking group executive Adam Bennett said. “But when you’re introducing Siri or a brand new operating system, that would be what we classify as an innovation.” Locally, the same applies - albeit on a smaller scale.
“If you took an accounting firm, an improvement might be changing the way you pass information between yourself and your customer,” Mr Bennett said. “But if you implement a new cloud-based accounting platform that fully automates and integrates the client and the accountant, that would be what we would define as more of an innovation.”
The OECD-recognised Oslo Manual defines innovation as introducing something new or making a significant improvement in one or more of business processes, products and services, organisational structure, and marketing practices. The innovation is assessed at being either new to firm, new to market or new to world.
CBA, which released the preliminary findings of its Unlocking Everyday Innovation report on Saturday, said South Australia is the most innovative state or territory with 51 per cent of businesses surveyed being what the bank calls “innovation active”. AAP
2.18pm:Medibank Private says ‘no cigar’
Private health insurer Medibank Private no longer has any investments in tobacco companies.
The private health insurer says had shifted $170 million of investments in international shares to a new tobacco-free investment fund launched by State Street Global Advisors.
Medibank’s policy of excluding investments in tobacco companies has now been implemented across its entire $2.4 billion investment portfolio. International equities was the last remaining area where the policy had to be applied. Read more.
1.52pm:Healthscope, Ramsay take a beating
Australia’s leading private hospital operators Healthscope and Ramsay Health Care are reeling for a second straight session as analysts readjust expectations following the release of a shock weak profit outlook from Healthscope on Friday.
The sell-off wasn’t quite as intense on day two, although Healthscope traded down around 6 per cent at lunchtime and its peer gave back a further 3 per cent.
Such moves have seen the former shed a further $230 million in value, while Ramsay has dropped another $500m.
The two companies had $1.5 billion wiped from their collective valuations on Friday as a “horrendous” September led Healthscope to warn its core hospitals unit might deliver zero growth this year.
Daniel Palmer
1.43pm:Rate cut hinges on inflation
Inflation data due this week will likely determine whether the Reserve Bank will cut interest rates 45 minutes before the Melbourne Cup next Tuesday.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to have risen 0.5 per cent in the September quarter for an annual rate of 1.1 per cent, according to an AAP survey of 14 economists.
Underlying inflation, which strips out the effects of volatile price movements, is forecast to have been at 0.4 per cent in the quarter and 1.6 per cent over the year.
Both annual figures sit below the central bank’s two to three per cent target band.
The Reserve Bank has been eagerly awaiting the September quarter inflation data to assess the impact of its two rate cuts this year on consumer prices.
AAP
1.20pm:Giants set for $23bn coal boost
An unlikely resurgence in the price of coal could deliver an $US18 billion ($23.6bn) boost to the four big mining groups listed in London.
Despite falling foul of increasingly stringent environmental regulations around the world, the unfashionable fuel has rebounded spectacularly this year, making it one of the best-performing commodities.
The leap in prices is on a similar scale to that after the Fukushima nuclear incident in 2011, which took place when China’s boom was in full flow. The rise in prices is down to the vagaries of Chinese policy. Beijing has ordered mines to cut back on production, which sent import prices soaring.
Few, if any, mining executives saw the move coming, but the price rise since the start of the year could deliver an $US18 billion boost to their revenue on the basis of the production forecasts for BHP Billiton (BHP), Rio Tinto (RIO), Glencore and Anglo American.
12.56pm:Banks weigh on ASX, Coca-Cola slumps
Australian stocks have seen a much sharper-than-expected fall today and there looks to be a real chance of closing below the 100-day moving average.
At just before 1pm the S&P/ASX 200 was 0.7 per cent weaker for the day at 5390.2 points, and earlier fell as much as 1 per cent despite the SPI 200 pointing to a flat session.
Big banks are weighing on the market ahead of their reporting season, with investors clearly expecting some kind of bad news … many expect those juicy dividends to be on the chopping block as mortgage margins remain under pressure.
CBA is 0.7 per cent lower for the day, while Westpac and ANZ are 0.2 per cent in the red and NAB is 0.6 per cent down.
In resources, BHP Billiton has given up 0.6 per cent, while Rio Tinto has lifted by that amount.
Healthcare stocks have been hit hard, with the sector down 2 per cent overall — CSL is 1.5 per cent lower, Cochlear has lost 3.8 per cent and Ramsay is 3.7 per cent down for the day.
Coca-Cola Amatil is today’s worst performing stock, with 6.2 per cent wiped off the share price following the company’s shareholder day on Friday and some words of warning from Deutsche Bank analysts about the stock looking full after a 27 per cent rise in three months.
12.20pm:Kohler: Is a property crash coming?
I have watched a friend try and fail to buy a small inner-city detached house as an investment property for two Saturdays in a row now.
The price whizzed past his limit each time and the house was knocked down for 20-25 per cent above the pre-auction estimate. Applause from crowd, happiness for vendor and agent, frustration for the underbidders muttering bait and switch.
In each case the house was bought by a family planning to live in it, not an investor. I’m guessing they don’t want to live far from the city and, with interest rates so low, they can afford to pay up for it.
But it has been a forceful demonstration that apartments and houses are two very distinct markets: the former is already in the midst of a hard landing; the latter is still white hot.
So, given that Australia’s economic engine has transitioned from mining construction to housing, there are two big questions for the economy next year: how hard will the apartment landing be? And to what extent will it affect the market for detached houses?
11.32am:New Chinese owner for Genworth
The parent company of ASX-listed Genworth Australia has been bought out by China Oceanwide in a deal worth $US2.7 billion ($3.55bn), writes Daniel Palmer.
Genworth Financial — which controls 52 per cent of Genworth Australia following a float of its local arm in 2014 — announced the all-cash deal over the weekend.
The US-based group said the transaction would have no impact on the operations of its Australian division (GMA), although the deal will represent a change-of-control transaction.
11.20am:Cooper Energy buys Santos gas assets
Cooper Energy has agreed to buy Santos’s natural-gas assets offshore southern Australia for as much as $US62 million ($82m), driving up the exploration and production company’s output and bolstering its gas reserves, writes Robb Stewart.
For Santos (STO), it will mark an exit from offshore Victoria after it in March completed the sale of its interest in the Kipper gas field for $520 million.
Cooper (COE) it had signed a binding agreement to buy Santos’s gas assets off Victoria for $62 million in cash and a potential further payment of $20 million based on certain milestones for the assets.
11.00am:ASX unexpectedly slumps 0.9%
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 share index unexpectedly dived 0.9 per cent to a four-week low of 5379.5 in early trade.
A daily close below the 100-DMA at 5397 and the October 18 low at 5386.10 would be a concern.
Downside targets would be the 200-DMA at 5247 and the September low at 5192.2.
Broad-based falls were led by utilities, industrials, consumer discretionary, IT and healthcare.
Coca-Cola Amatil slumped 6.8 per cent to a two-month low of $9.41 after Deutsche Bank cut its rating to hold.
The broker was worried about recent share price strength and potentially higher costs.
Healthscope was down 4.6 per cent after a quarterly revenue drop was revealed last week.
Elsewhere, Whitehaven was down 3.8 per cent after hitting a 3.5 year high last week on coal price strength.
Meanwhile, high PE stocks including Domino’s, Cohlear, NEXTDC, Spark, Webjet and Aconex are getting clobbered.
Rio Tinto and Alumina are two of the few positive stocks in the top 200.
10.51am:Freedom Insurance to list on ASX
Freedom Insurance will launch onto the ASX in a deal expected to value the company at around $83.9 million.
Approximately 42.68 million shares will be offered to sophisticated and professional investors at $0.35, with bids due by midday on Thursday and trading is expected to commence in late November.
Pro forma net cash is $16.02m, while enterprise value is listed as $67.88m.
10.30am:Banks drag ASX down
The Australian sharemarket has slipped in early trade, weighed by weakness in the banks ahead the big four releasing trading updates over the next week-and-a-half, writes Daniel Palmer.
At the 10.15am (AEDT) official market open, the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index slid 17.7 points, or 0.33 per cent, to 5,412.6, while the broader All Ordinaries index dipped 21.7 points, or 0.39 per cent, to 5,492.2.
The big four banks were all in the red, with Westpac outperforming by inching down 0.1 per cent and CBA’s 0.4 per cent retreat trailing its peers.
Meanwhile, the major miners bucked the market trend, with BHP gaining 0.1 per cent to $23.06, Rio Tinto climbing 0.4 per cent to $51.17 and Fortescue advancing 0.3 per cent to $5.135.
10.00am:Join us for a live Q&A from 12pm!
Australian investors have been walking up a slippery slope this year: for all the speculation and effort the ASX 200 has only managed to gain around 2 per cent in 2016. It’s a flat market, but what can investors do to put some runs on the board?
Michael McCarthy, chief strategist at CMC Markets, is bringing some firepower to this week’s Markets Q&A on theaustralian.com.au.
Mr McCarthy — a more-than 30-year veteran of financial markets — will be taking questions alongside The Australian’s Markets Editor David Rogers and BusinessNow Editor Chris Kohler, on Monday between 12pm and 1pm.
But you don’t have to wait until then to post your comment — just go to the Q&A page, submit your question and tune in at 12pm for an answer!
9.39am:A big week of stock watching
The market may be heading for a quiet morning, but the week ahead is choc-full of key news.
The future of big bank dividends will be front of mind for investors this week, with NAB set to get the ball rolling on bank reporting season on Thursday.
JPMorgan analyst Scott Manning recently said banks might have reached a “line in the sand” moment on mortgage profitability.
“Mortgage ROEs can’t really ‘afford’ to go lower than they are today without having an impact on dividend sustainability. To restore profitability pricing must be re-evaluated,” Mr Manning said.
“Either margins need to be maintained, or dividends will come under pressure.”
Following NAB, Macquarie will drop its half-yearly profit result on Friday, and next week sees ANZ and Westpac report full-year numbers, while CBA delivers quarterly results.
On top of the focus on banks, investors will also be keeping an eye on Tabcorp, JB Hi-Fi, Blackmores, Tatts, Bendigo & Adelaide Bank and Carsales, which all hold their annual general meetings this week.
And finally Wesfarmers will release its quarterly sales update on Wednesday, while Woolworths will do the same on Friday.
9.35am:Zenitas to raise $30m via placement
Healthcare company Zenitas is raising $30 million via a placement at $1 per share to fund the acquisition of five community-based healthcare businesses.
The company is selling 30 million shares through Bell Potter and Wilsons, which are joint lead managers and book runners for an initial public offering of Zenitas before the end of the year.
Zenita’s market value following the raising will be $44.8m.
Bridget Carter
9.15am:FIRB gives China green light in Vitaco bid
The proposed $314 million takeover of Australian pharmaceutical company Vitaco by Chinese interests has received approval from the Foreign Investment Review Board, writes Daniel Palmer.
The rare green light from the Turnbull Government for Chinese investment in 2016 comes after the controversial blocking of bids for electricity distribution group Ausgrid and cattle empire S. Kidman & Co.
Vitaco announced the planned sale in August, with its board lending unanimous support to a $2.25 a share bid from Shanghai Pharma and Primavera Capital.
9.08am:Bravura IPO priced at $1.65-$2.16 a share
Software solutions provider Bravura has priced its initial public offering at a range of between $1.68 and $2.17 per share as the Ironbridge Capital-owned group revises its earnings forecasts on the back of the falling British pound.
It comes as the group plans to raise between $194m and $228m, with vendor Ironbridge Capital to sell half of its interest.
Earlier, the range was $1.65 per share and $2.16 but the numbers were updated this morning, sources said.
The pricing range equates to between 10.4 and 12.6 times its forecasted annual earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation on an enterprise value basis.
With respect to forecasted net profit, the range is between 16.2 and 19.4 times.
It comes as it revises down its earnings prediction on the back of a dramatic move in the British pound and is now basing its earnings on a currency exchange rate of $1.60 to the pound sterling rather than $1.75 as previously predicted.
9.07am:Coca-Cola Amatil cut to hold — Deutsche
Coca-Cola Amatil has been cut to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank after a strong share price rally saw the stock overtake analyst expectations.
The company held an investor day to outline its strategy, and following a 27 per cent rise in three months analysts are proving hard to impress.
“Overall, there were no significant changes, which is probably a good thing,” Deutsche Bank’s Michael Simotas and Daniel Wan said.
“The company reiterated its ‘shareholder value proposition’. We continue to see merit in the modus operandi of delivering mid-single digit [earnings per share] growth and strong [free cash flow] generation. However, after a period of strong outperformance, the stock has surpassed our target price so we have cut our rating from buy to hold, with no changes to our earnings estimates or target price.”
CCL shares last traded 0.4 per cent higher at $10.10.
9.00am:Crown arrests could hit local operations
Fears are spreading among investors that convictions for any of the 18 Crown Resorts employees arrested in China last week could have implications for the company’s Australian gaming licences, writes Richard Gluyas.
The move came as it emerged last night that Matt Bekier, the chief executive of rival casino operator Star Entertainment had cancelled a planned trip to Macau.
Mr Bekier makes quarterly visits to Hong Kong to see the company’s joint venture partners, Hong Kong-based investors Chow Tai Fook and Far East Consortium.
8.55am:Broker rating changes
Coca-Cola Amatil cut to Hold vs Buy — Deutsche Bank
Macquarie Atlas raised to Outperform vs Neutral — Macquarie
Pulse Health cut to Hold vs Buy — Bell Potter
Santos raised to Neutral vs Underweight — JPMorgan
8.50am:Flat open tipped for stocks
Australian stocks look likely to ease into the week, with the local SPI200 pointing to a flat open and fair value suggesting a slight fall.
The lacklustre start to today’s trade will follow a flat week on the ASX 200, which saw a huge 15.7 per cent fall from Crown and 10.8 per cent drop from Star Entertainment after 18 Crown employees were arrested in China on suspicion of gambling crimes.
BHP Billiton is eye a slow start to the week, with the miner’s ADRs pointing to a 0.2 per cent rise at the open.
The iron ore price hasn’t done much to inspire resources investors in the last session — slipping 0.2 per cent to $US58.72, while the price of oil gained around 0.8 per cent.
8.42am:Goldmans values Alinta at $4bn-$5.19bn
Alinta Energy has been valued at between $4 billion and $5.197bn by Goldman Sachs.
Analyst marketing for the company begins today ahead of its plans to raise up to about $2bn for an initial public offering before Christmas.
Analysts from Goldmans have the equity value at between $3.2bn and $4.38bn, while the $4bn to $5.197bn range is on an enterprise value basis.
The valuation estimate equates to between 10 and 13 times its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation.
Meanwhile, UBS analysts estimate that the company’s market value is between $3.587bn and $4.115bn on an enterprise value basis and $2.775bn and $3.3bn on an equity value basis.
The UBS analyst range equates to between 9.5 and 10.8 times the company’s EBITDA.
Morgan Stanley’s pricing estimates for Alinta are between eight and 10 times its EBITDA, while those for Credit Suisse are between 9.2 and 10.3 times.
The energy provider is owned by various groups including TPG Capital and numerous hedge funds, which picked up the business in a rescue attempt after it almost collapsed during the global financial crisis.
The compelling aspect of the company is the high yield being offered, and capital has since been invested in the business.
However, while the West Australian retail division is a strongly performing operation, the portfolio has been described as an eclectic mix of assets, and the float is happening after failed attempts to sell the company this year for about $5bn in a trade sale and attempts
about a year ago for close to $6bn.
Bridget Carter
7.05am:Australian market set to open flat
The Australian market looks set to open flat after the Dow Jones and the S & P 500 closed little changed, as a record day for Microsoft and earnings from McDonald’s helped offset a fall in US energy and healthcare shares.
At 6.45am (AEDT) on Monday, the share price index was down one point at 5,402.
Locally, no major economic news is expected on Monday.
Instead, investors will be waiting for crucial inflation data on Wednesday.
“The major focus will be on Wednesday’s CPI and whether it will be on the RBA’s forecast track,” said Ray Attrill, global co-head of FX Strategy at National Australia Bank. “We expect it will be, coming with a likely kick in headline inflation, thanks to fuel and some food.”
Economists are mostly expect headline inflation for the September quarter to creep up to 0.5 per cent from 0.4 per cent last quarter.
In equities news, Super Retail Group has its annual general meeting scheduled.
In Australia, the market on Friday fell slightly due to weakness in the energy sector and a surprise profit warning from private hospitals operator Healthscope.
The benchmark S & P/ASX200 index dropped 11.8 points, or 0.22 per cent, to 5,430.3 points.
The broader All Ordinaries index fell 12.3 points, or 0.22 per cent, to 5,513.9 points.
AAP
6.55am:Iron ore hovers at six-week high
The iron ore price is managing to hold at its highest point in more than six weeks as it continues a two-week rally amid lacklustre shipments from Australia’s biggest producers, Elizabeth Redman writes.
Iron ore settled at $US58.40 a tonne in the most recent session, according to The Steel Index, unchanged from the previous day. The price has either risen or held steady for 10 straight sessions.
6.40am:Dollar slides against greenback
The Australian dollar is lower against the US dollar, with the greenback reaching an eight-month high.
At 6.35am (AEDT), the local unit was trading at US76.10 cents, down from 76.38 cents on Friday.
The US dollar rose to its highest since early February against a basket of currencies on Friday as investors increased bets on higher US interest rates, while a measure of world stocks posted its first weekly gain in four weeks despite some soft US corporate results.
It also was bolstered by comments from New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley that the Fed was prepared to raise US overnight interest rates, and by decreasing likelihood of Donald Trump winning the US presidency.
AAP
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