LNP set for bittersweet Qld success

LNP set for bittersweet Qld success

Queensland voters are set to give the Liberal National Party a belting on Saturday, but it's likely to hold on to power.

The polls across the state are on a knife-edge three years after the LNP annihilated Labor, leaving it with just seven seats.

An Essential Research Poll on Thursday showed the major parties 50-50 on a two-party preferred basis.

Pundits are predicting a swing of 8-13 per cent to Labor, with the opposition set to pick up between 15 and 30 seats.

Professor Geoff Cockfield, of the University of Southern Queensland, says that sort of swing is more than just a natural correction.

He says voters will judge the LNP on its performance, which has been unconvincing as well as misleading, such as with public sector cuts.

"There will be a fair bit of disillusion and a bit of backlash going on," he told AAP.

Professor Clive Bean, of the Queensland University of Technology, said there was "a complex conglomeration of reasons" behind a swing.

But he said voters' appraisal of Premier Campbell Newman's leadership would be crucial.

"He's had trouble with the compromise and the subtle nuances that are required to keep voters onside," Prof Bean said.

"Then there's the various policy decisions that haven't been popular and the government's handling of various important groups like the judiciary and the medical profession.

"I don't think that goes down very well."

A good measure of how much the swing will be the fault of the government's performance can been seen in Labor's campaign strategy.

Rather than presenting her alternative vision for the state, Opposition Leader Annastacia Palaszczuk has simply highlighted the Newman government's missteps and opposed any "asset sales".

The opposition seems to have accepted it's not going to win this time, and will more likely make a more serious tilt for government in 2018.

The biggest scalp Labor is likely to claim is Mr Newman's seat of Ashgrove in inner Brisbane, which he holds by a margin of 5.7 per cent.

The premier refuses to accept the LNP will hold on to government if he loses his seat.

But he seemed to be panicking in the dying days of the campaign, desperate to make any gain in popularity at the opposition's expense.

Mr Newman suddenly cancelled his tour of marginal north Queensland seats after Ms Palaszczuk forgot the GST rate on live radio.

"That would suggest to me that (the LNP) think there's a bit of a problem there," Prof Cockfield said.

Mr Newman's loyal cabinet ministers won't admit there's a succession plan, but Prof Bean says there will likely be a bloody leadership battle in the LNP on Sunday.

"It's in the lap of the gods, but we'll probably have a new premier next week," he told AAP.