Defence Minister Peter Dutton and his assistant minister Andrew Hastie face one the most difficult decision-making processes yet faced by members of the Morrison ministry.
They are being advised to buy B-21 bombers but given the appalling equipment decision-making record of the defence department they need to carefully check on any advice they get from their senior public servants and their friends.
There are clear danger signs that this is set to be yet another appalling mistake to add to the Joint Strike Fighter/F35, submarine and frigate disasters.
In short, while the B-21 is set to be an excellent bomber aircraft, because the Joint Strike Fighter - F35 has not delivered what was promised, we no longer control the air with China, Indonesia and Vietnam set to have better aircraft. That may make the bomber a wonderful public relations exercise but a vulnerable target.
As I will explain below, Australia’s top ranking air defence analysts, Air Power Australia, are warning the two ministers that this is yet another blunder.
To help the ministers I will set out the cases for and against the B-21 but warn them that they need to check with people outside the defence “establishment” and be wary of advice from groups funded by those involved in making the JSF and B-21.
The case for the B-21 comes from the respected Marcus Hellyer writing in the “Strategist” publication. Here are extracts:
“The F-35A has an effective combat radius of about 1000 kilometres. That can be boosted to about 1500 kilometres with the use of expensive and vulnerable tanker aircraft. But even that doesn’t cover much of our neighbourhood. It’s also easily outranged by Chinese missiles—it doesn’t matter how good the F-35A is if it’s taken out on the ground or its bases are destroyed.
“One option that could deliver formidable long-range strike power well before the future submarines arrive are bombers.
“We flew bombers out of northern Australia during World War II against the Japanese to telling effect, and it was only a decade ago that the F-111, long a mainstay of Australia’s deterrent capability, was retired.
“The only real candidate for a crewed long-range bomber is the B-21 stealth bomber, currently under development in the US and planned to enter service late this decade. Remarkably for a developmental project, the B-21 seems to be roughly on schedule and on budget by leveraging the technologies used in earlier stealth aircraft projects. It’s using two F-35 engines, for example, but it will have three or four times the range of the F-35. That will allow it to reach far out into the Indo-Pacific, greatly complicating the planning of any adversary operating against us or our friends. It also means it can be based deep inside Australia, far from threats, and still not need to rely on tanker support”.
In the case against, Air Power Australia say that for the B-21 to be an effective weapon Australia must have air superiority. If the JSF/F35 had delivered what Lockheed Martin and the US government promised and gave Australia air superiority in the region, then the B21 would be an excellent purchase. The JSF/F35 problems are fundamental and have been revealed in the US data. Modelling clearly shows that the JSF/F35 is no match against the fifth generation Chinese aircraft and Russian aircraft being purchased by Indonesia and Vietnam.
If Australia had the F22 it would be a different story. Without air superiority even a so-called stealth bomber like the B-21 is very vulnerable. The failure of the JSF/F35 to deliver what was promised and required is the problem and buying a bomber does not solve it.
Sadly Australia’s JSF/F35 problem is also an American defence problem and as good allies and friends we must help them solve it.
The only solution is to harness the massive production capacity and assembly line facilities that are currently being used to make JSF/F35s to enable the F22 to get back into production.
An updated F22 would restore American air superiority and if we obtained that aircraft we would again rank in the region and could consider the B-21.
The Americans have the performance data which shows the JSF/F35 does not match the Russian and Chinese aircraft, but the politics in the US has prevented it being recognised and a solution found. Australia has a big role to play in helping the Americans recognise the disaster and set about overcoming it.
The key difference between the two cases is whether the B-21 needs fighter protection, given the calibre of the Russian and Chinese aircraft.
I don’t envy the task of Dutton and Hastie because it is extremely difficult to be a minister in a portfolio where your public servant advisers do not want to admit past mistakes. And for a government facing election admitting mistakes is very dangerous, particularly given the latest opinion polls.
But this is the defence of the nation in an increasingly hostile world. The first step in any solution is to recognise the problem.
More Coverage
Read related topics:Peter Dutton
Join the conversation
Qantas ghost flights penalty a ‘necessary sting’
The Federal Court has agreed a $120m settlement reached by the ACCC and Qantas will be an effective deterrent for future non-compliance with consumer laws.
Read more
Flight Centre to relaunch meetings arm amid global push
The ASX-listed travel business will relaunch its corporate meetings and events business to position it for global opportunities as Australian companies look to spend big on conferences.
Read more