Coronavirus: Airfares to soar as airlines lose middle seats

As airlines move to permanently ‘de-densify’ planes, passengers will pay a high price for the extra elbow room.

Airlines have already announced plans to ‘de-densify’ planes. Picture: Toby Zerna

Air fares could rise by 50 per cent when the lockdown is lifted as airlines adjust to a world in which fewer passengers can be squeezed onto planes.

Last week, carriers including easyJet, Wizz, Delta and American announced that they would ensure social distancing by removing middle seats from sale, a process known as “dedensification”. For easyJet, it means the number of passengers who can be squeezed onto an A320-200s will be cut from 180 to 120.

The loss of the dreaded middle seat has a cost attached because the era of cheap flights, enjoyed for the past 25 years, is only possible because of the high density passenger loads on planes. Competitive fares offer slender margins, and profit depends on volume.

In order to break even, low-cost carriers need to sell between 75 per cent and 80 per cent of seats on any flight, but removing the middle seats will reduce maximum load factors to 66 per cent.

John Grant, from aviation analysts OAG, said: “Such a significant cut in capacity per flight will certainly lead to an increase in average fares as demand picks up. The operating economics of the airline industry are wafer thin at the best of times so removing 30 per cent of available capacity will have an inevitable consequence.”

Currently, airfares are low but one industry source says they could rise by as much as 50 per cent. Cathay Pacific has returns to Sydney from $AU855 next January. Flights to Malaga in September start at $AU65 with BA and United flies to LA in October from $AU465, and the advice from the trade is to book now.

But who will? Not the transport secretary, Grant Shapps, who told Radio 4’s Today programme on Friday that he would not be booking a summer holiday, and probably not the tens of thousands of British travellers involved in increasingly bitter disputes with airlines, tour operators and agents over recompense for this year’s ruined breaks.

Under the package travel regulations (PTRs), customers are entitled to their money back within 14 days if their trip is cancelled. With cash flows severed, and unable to recoup funds paid to overseas suppliers, some firms have defied the law by delaying or even refusing reimbursements and offering so-called refund credit notes. These allow travellers to rebook a holiday at a future date or receive a government-guaranteed cash refund at the expiry date of the note.

The Association of British Travel Agents (Abta) argues that PTRs were not written for the current crisis, but the business secretary, Alok Sharma, has ignored pleas for their modification. The consequence, says Abta, is agents and operators going bust and “significant long-term damage to the UK travel industry”.

The Sunday Times