Australia’s serious air defence weakness

Australia has a serious concealed air defence weakness, writes Robert Gottliebsen.

The turmoil in the US over the Joint Strike Fighter/F-35 has confirmed that Australia has a serious concealed air defence weakness, remarkably similar to 1939.

Given the uncertainty to our north this is arguably the greatest threat facing the nation. Accordingly we need our best ministerial talent in the defence portfolio.

Leaving aside other widely publicised issues, Linda Reynolds is a new minister tackling a serious national threat and needs a different post.

As we look for cabinet members with the required attributes, the two most obvious candidates for the role are Josh Frydenberg and Peter Dutton but both have vital roles in the current government.

China has understood our air defence weakness for some time which helps explain why President Xi Jinping does not respect us.

To understand the depth of our crisis, I have to take you back over the last decade when I wrote regularly about the problems of the Joint Strike Fighter (now called the F-35) under the guidance of Peter Goon and Carlo Kopp at Air Power Australia. Defence rejected the alerts.

Air Power turned out to be chillingly correct.

But in 2017 I did not pick up on the most serious scenario of all – a scenario that sadly has now become an actuality and requires a level of government application and international skills not required in any other ministerial portfolio.

Graphic: Air Power Australia

In 2017 Air Power Australia published the above diagram showing the performance capabilities of the major aircraft in our region.

Australia’s JSF/ F-35 aircraft and our Hornets (F/A-18A/G) can only operate at military combat levels of around 35,000 feet. The JSF by using its after burner facility can get above 50,000 feet but the fuel required to gain the extra elevation means that by the time it gets there the JSF is running short of fuel it is not combat ready.

By contrast the Russian Sukhoi aircraft (Su-35S, Su-57E) and China’s Chengdu (J-20B) are fully functional at 50,000 to 60,000 feet – indeed that’s what they were designed to do in combating America’s F-22. While the F-22 can also operate at that level, it is an older aircraft that has not been in production for some 10 years. Without upgrading it will struggle against the Chinese and Russian aircraft.

Defence Minister Linda Reynolds. Picture: Getty Images

In addition, there are less than 100 F-22s covering the whole world and there are none based in Australia. The 2017 scenario plays out this way. A convoy of Russian Sukhoi or Chinese Chengdu aircraft head to Australia (they might have been sold to another nation) with the intent of bombing Darwin, the Tindal air base and other targets in our north. The JSF and its software might have sufficient capability to avoid destruction from the aircraft flying above.

But the JSF/F-35 has a limited range and relies on support from the aerial refueller tankers and the E-7A Wedgetail aircraft. The Sukhoi or Chengdu aircraft flying above 50,000 feet can destroy the support aircraft below. That leaves the JSF exposed because it needs regular mid air refuelling.

The founders of the Tindal air base had learned from the Pearl Harbor bombing that it is dangerous to have your aircraft/ships in a concentrated area so they spread out the aircraft around the perimeter of the Tindal base.

But modern officials thought that was inefficient so they brought many of the aircraft together so making the base easier to attack.

America might have other weapons or techniques to combat the threats but on our own we are in a dangerous position.

When in 2017 Air Power put forward the above scenario the defence chiefs said they would do their own modelling and test it. The conclusions were immediately declared top secret and there they have remained. It is possible that the ministers who have been in defence were not told of his top secret risk evaluation. But now everything is coming out in the US. The trouble with not revealing bad news is that nobody then takes the necessary steps to do something about it.

F-35 fighter jets.

That’s why we require our top ministerial talent to link with Japan to convince the US to upgrade the F-22, bringing it back into production plus allowing us to buy it.

There is no time to develop a new aircraft and trying to fix the JSF problems will not work because it is the wrong shape. The parts production capacity that has been developed for the JSF can be converted to the F-22. The lobbying in the US for the JSF is enormous so this will not be an easy task. With a revamped and updated F-22 made available to Australia we would have a good measure of control over our air space.

It is significant that around the time we decided to make the defence danger a top classified issue we are also taking huge risks with the submarine contract and the frigates.

And an odd situation took place when Senator Jim Molan put the Air Power scenario to high ranking defence officials in the Senate. Their reply indicated they did not understand the ability of the Chinese and Russian aircraft to fly above 50,000 feet. It is possible that, along with the ministers, they did not know what was in the top secret document. I hope that is wrong. One of the few people in the parliament who really understands the defence problem is Senator Rex Patrick. His interrogation of top defence officials is essential viewing for anyone wanting to understand why the problem was never addressed. You can read more on that here and watch a full replay here.