‘ABV test’ threatens Australia’s mRNA vaccine push

It is not how we planned the post-Covid world but a much clearer picture of the way forward is now emerging. The next four months will be tough on children and a vast array of enterprises, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne.

We must not ignore these issues, but equally we must not ignore the fact that an “ABV” infection in parts of the Morrison government threatens our long term future as a regional virus control centre of excellence.

There is a high likelihood that by November-December we will have sufficient vaccines for all those that want to be vaccinated, including children. Vaccinating children is essential but will delay the percentage trigger points. The mental impact on younger people as well as worksite vaccinations and what is known as the “Balmain syndrome”, along with struggling enterprises, will be big issues in the next three months.

Claire Edler and Jacob Mahony get the AstraZeneca vaccine together in Melbourne earlier this month. Picture: David Caird

Given the looming availability of vaccines these are all issues that provide a real opening for prime minister Scott Morrison, health minister Greg Hunt, treasurer Josh Frydenberg and industrial relations minister Michaelia Cash to start clawing back some of the lead that opposition leader Anthony Albanese has established.

Sadly for the government and the nation, there are also signs of disintegration and panic deep in parts of government ranks. And that becomes dangerous for the nation when an election approaches.

If we look beyond the current crisis, we are now dealing with the first generation of vaccines, with much better vaccines still to be developed. President Trump poured vast sums into US companies like Pfizer and Moderna, who took a lead in the so-called mRNA technology and didn’t allow their knowledge to spread like AstraZeneca in the UK. Australia’s CSL partnered with AstraZeneca using conventional vaccine technology but, even without the Trump money avalanche, we are catching up to the Americans in mRNA technology. A pilot plant is imminent.

Vaccines are going to be important in every nation’s future and it is clear that we must have a strong, high technology-based vaccine development and manufacturing industry, or we will be at the whim of overseas vaccine players in subsequent generations of vaccines. Australia must develop the production and development capacity for mRNA vaccines and we are fortunate to have a global vaccine leader in CSL. The Victorian government has announced that it will help to establish a major plant when that is appropriate.

Middle-ranking CSL people met with Canberra government officials and were told there would be federal government support for such a project – provided it meets the “ABV” test. In all its global research, CSL had never heard of the “ABV” test. And then it came out: “ABV” stands for “Anywhere But Victoria”.

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews receives his second Covid-19 vaccine. Picture: Instagram,

For CSL, it makes absolutely no sense to have plants and skills away from its technology and skills base in Victoria but if Canberra showers CSLwith enough cash, there could be a case. And “ABV” may encourage Canberra to split our vaccine efforts. The hatred of Daniel Andrews runs deep in Canberra, and NSW and Queensland is where money can be well spent to gain votes. Neither Morrison, Hunt, Frydenberg nor Cash were involved but if they succumb to the ABV infection, the nation is headed for a terrible period as we head to the election because vote-buying won’t stop there. CSL is an enormous Australian-based global pharmaceutical operation – it has never experienced anything like “ABV” anywhere else in the world.

In preparing for a pathway forward it is clear New South Wales has lost control. Victoria would have gone the same way as NSW without the latest lockdown but it remains at a dangerous point. In both our most populous states the community is seriously questioning which is worse – the virus, or the impact of the control measures. Our problem is that if restrictions are lowered the hospital system will not be able to cope.

Our children are very vulnerable to the Delta variant so must be vaccinated but that delays the achievement of 70 or 80 per cent vaccination. If we were to confine our vaccination to those people aged 18 and above and have greater community mingling, then vaccinated parents, grandparents and friends will catch the virus but may suffer no symptoms. Unknowingly, they will spread the virus to unvaccinated children.

Our younger people are being given no hope and self-harm and even suicide rates are ranking with the virus in seriousness, particularly in Victoria and NSW. A vaccinated Scott Morrison needs to cast off the divisiveness of “ABV” and become a World War II, Churchillian-style leader using our vaccine skills and looming availability as his weapon. Then comes the workplace: Qantas CEO Alan Joyce and a few other private groups are unfairly incurring the wrath of unions and others for demanding that their staff be vaccinated.

Last week, Attorney-General Michaela Cash brought together a series of groups including SafeWork Australia, which is in contact will all the state-based SafeWork and WorkSafe bodies. I think it is likely that the more responsible WorkSafe bodies will look at their legislation and realise that work sites will be very unsafe for the unvaccinated.

A CSL worker rolls out a batch of the AstraZeneca vaccine. Picture: Getty Images

Just as occurs with children, vaccinated staff may well be infected and have no symptoms and pass that infection on to the unvaccinated. In NSW and Victoria I would expect in the next couple of weeks there will be some SafeWork/WorkSafe determinations on this subject.

Today, Balmain is an area where many affluent people are meeting in breach of lockdown restrictions and are open about it. It is unfair to isolate Balmain because not all residents in the area are involved and “Balmain syndrome” is prevalent in other parts of Sydney and Melbourne as the young upper middle class believe they are beyond Covid-19. If restrictions are going to be continued we will need to crack down.

Sydney has to find a way to get through its crisis until around November-December without overwhelming its hospitals and morgues. Victoria has to win its battle while easing restrictions in September and every state needs to keep the NSW virus from crossing borders. The damage in the next few months – both human and to some enterprises – will be severe, but by 2022 we will have developed the means to live with the virus and may be one of the global leaders in combating it.