A formula for the future of the Middle East, Ukraine and Europe has been mapped out
President-elect Donald Trump’s promise to sort out Ukraine before he is inaugurated on January 20 can now be widened by incorporating the Middle East.
World economics is set for a fundamental change.
In remarkable timing, two weeks before Christmas, on the steps of the restored Notre Dame cathedral, a linked formula for the future of the Middle East and of Ukraine-Europe was mapped out. The English and French reports from Notre Dame tell us that Trump, French President Emmanuel Macron and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky agreed on the basis of a settlement that would be put to Vladimir Putin. But the conversations went much further.
And as has happened so often in past global crises, economic issues in the countries involved offer a pathway out of seemingly unsolvable quagmires.
That’s certainly the case in Syria, Ukraine, Russia and Iran.
As I pointed out last week, 40 per cent of the Russian economy is devoted to the Ukraine war, which is in stalemate.
Just as the Syrian economic disaster brought down its dictator, Bashar al-Assad, economics could bring down Putin.
And if Putin does not understand the potential relationship between the economy and the survival of many dictators, he now has the former dictator of Syria in Russia to explain what can happen.
The details of a settlement that would be put to Putin were not released but clearly Russia takes key parts of Ukraine’s Donbas region and probably gets security over Crimea and is able to restore its naval presence in the region. Ukraine will need security.
Zelensky pulls out of Russian territory and the slaughter of tens of thousands of North Korean troops stops. Will Putin agree? The alternative is the danger of nuclear war in Europe. There is a good chance that with the Russia- Middle Eastern strategy in tatters, agreement can be reached.
Macron may be important in the negotiation.
The fall of Syria means Hezbollah and Hamas can no longer be supplied by Iran, and given Iran’s economic mess, it would always have struggled to keep supporting its proxy fighters.
This is a complete victory for Israel and its Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.
The hostages and the Hamas settlement will be in the headlines but at the cathedral the strategy of Trump may have been to encourage Macron to help sort out both Ukraine and the Middle East, instead of focusing on France’s own difficulties.
From the non-English media reports from Notre Dame, it would seem that the basis of the Trump/ Netanyahu/Macron plan for the Middle East involves five strategies.
• Iran has suffered a potential regime-changing event in its defeats but, at least initially, there will be no attempt to overthrow the regime in Iran.
• Iran must not have nuclear power. Its ballistic missiles pose a risk to the Gulf countries and Israel. They will be dismantled by negotiation or force. Iran is also in an economic mess and the fall of Syria threatens the regime’s survival. It may be a perfect time to give the regime a choice. Iran will need to instruct its Hamas proxy to release the hostages.
• Remaining Iranian proxies in the region in Iraq and Yemen must go the same way as Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria.
• A formula will be worked out between Trump’s people and then Saudi Arabia will bring with it around 12 Middle Eastern countries.
• Part of the plan will be the restoration of the shocking Syrian economy, which may take priority over Gaza. The Palestinians are not liked in many areas of the Middle East.
In Syria there is, of course, the normal shouting that comes with rebel uprisings, but Abu Mohammed al-Golani, leader of the Islamist rebel alliance, and his supporters are well educated and know they cannot rebuild Syria without help from other Middle Eastern countries, along with the US and Europe.
Although Turkey has provided some finance for the rebels, it is not strong enough to fix the Syrian mess where large numbers of buildings destroyed in the 2011 civil war are still in ruins. And Syrian agriculture is a fraction of its former self, when it was the centre of Syrian prosperity. As has happened in Russia, the Syrian dictator suffered from massive falls in his currency and high inflation.
The new leader of Syria must bring that under control and he can’t do that without outside help, which he will get as part of a wider Middle Eastern formula.
In the end, what happens to Gaza may be decided by Israel’s Netanyahu, who at the moment arguably has the most powerful military force in the region.
The great vision of the Middle Eastern optimists is that Israel will provide the technology; oil-rich countries will provide the money; and Syria and perhaps some of the Palestinians will provide the labour to restore the Middle East. With that comes stable oil prices. Trump and his mate Netanyahu will take the credit.
Our government is totally out of touch with what’s happening in the Middle East and got caught up in the need to preserve local seats where Islamic groups have a greater voter force.
It’s a very dangerous time to play on the international field with such motivations.
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