Budget 2017: Turnbull’s strategic shift forces Shorten to change tactics

This budget is about a reversal of political fortune.

Going into budget Malcolm Turnbull was under pressure to change and perform; coming out of it, Bill Shorten is the leader under pressure.

Labor has lost its clothes to the Coalition and risks being exposed by cold, hard examination.

After the searing election campaign experience of almost losing government to a relentless Opposition Leader, the Prime Minister has finally reacted positively and politically.

Since the 2014 budget Shorten has exploited populism and distortion to obstruct the Coalition’s economic agenda and keep the ALP ahead in the polls under the banner of “fairness”.

Labor has been prepared to oppose almost anything in the Senate and build a reservoir of public grievance.

The Coalition was accused of not wanting to fund the NDIS, of failing schools under the Gonski model, not changing negative gearing and protecting the big banks. Turnbull’s political response was slow and confused, as his leadership drifted into grave risk.

If this budget fails he and Scott Morrison are in deep trouble. But this budget demonstrates a recognition of that threat and a strategic shift to force Shorten to adapt and readjust.

To the extent of using “fairness” as a hallmark of this budget the Coalition is seeking to finally undo the damage of 2014, resume contact with the voters and fight Labor on its own turf.

Labor’s obstruction policy on so many key issues is no longer viable, scares are being neutralised and reassurances on NDIS, Medicare and school funding are being written into law or put into “locked boxes”.

Shorten can continue to be negative and claim the measures are either simple lifts of Labor policies or don’t go far enough.

But if they are Labor policies, they must be supported; if they don’t go far enough they are at least a start; and if they are to be taken further where is the money coming from?

For the first time since the 2013 election, Labor is being forced towards a deep self-examination and to make a choice about fundamental direction and policy formulation.

What Shorten can’t do is to continue to carp and trade on negativity and grievance.

With a modicum of savings and a raft of revenue raising — for which Morrison blames Labor’s opposition in the Senate — the Coalition has injected the flavour of enough economic management to be able to claim the government is not just doing what Labor promised but more.

Labor’s response must be more than glib one-liners or another dose of negativity. There is going to be another budget next year before the election and a positive reaction to this one puts the pressure on Shorten from this morning.