Warning as ACCC predicts gas shortfalls for Australia’s east coast

Millions of Australians could face gas shortages sooner than previously expected, the competition watchdog has warned.

Australia’s east coast could face chilling gas shortages a year earlier than previously predicted, the country’s competition watchdog has warned.

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) released it’s latest gas inquiry update this week, cautioning states and territories in the southeast may face a winter shortfall in 2025.

“While there is forecast to be an overall surplus next year, there is a risk of a shortfall in the third quarter when demand for energy is typically higher,” the report said.

Unless new supply is unlocked, or demand falls, the ACCC forecasts supply shortfalls to begin in 2027. Picture: NewsWire / Brenton Edwards

“Gas will also need to be sent from Queensland to southern jurisdictions (the Australian Capital Territory, New South Wales, South Australia, Tasmania, and Victoria) to avoid local shortfalls.”

The ACCC noted the two-year operation extension at Eraring Power Station in New South Wales has reduced the risk but their forecasts predict the east coast market could experience shortfalls “as early as 2027 unless new sources of supply are made available”.

“This predicted shortfall is likely to take place one year earlier than what previous reports have forecast, with the extended operation of Eraring Power Station improving the outlook for 2027 but not altering the fundamental trajectory of supply,” the report found.

The NSW Government secured an agreement with Origin Energy to operate the Eraring Power Station until August 2027 in May. Picture: Supplied.

The ACCC noted if new supply was not secured and demand remains unchanged, states and territories in the southeast would increasingly rely on Queensland.

ACCC Commissioner Anna Brakey said there was a “critical opportunity” for government to secure gas supply as liquefied natural gas export permits due to expire in the 2030s.

The report also found gas prices in the east coast market have continued to decline since mid-2022.

Last month, The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) warned gas supply may be inadequate to meet winter demand due to the recent cold snap, with pipelines from Queensland operating above capacity.

“Gas producers are doing everything they can to meet the heightened demand and to keep Australian households warm and businesses running,” Australian Energy Producers Chief Executive Samantha McCulloch said.