Aussie jabs on track to reach November target, new study says

A new study comparing Australia to Canada’s approach to Covid jabs has unearthed a surprising finding.

A comparison of Australia and Canada’s Covid-19 vaccination approach reveals there is “good reason” to be confident Down Under will achieve its 80 per cent target by mid-November, a new paper suggests.

More than one-fifth of eligible Aussies (those aged 16 and over) have been fully vaccinated and Doherty Institute modelling for national cabinet predicts 70 per cent will be fully vaccinated by November 1, climbing to 80 per cent on November 22.

In a new paper, The Centre of Independent Studies (CIS) says many doubts expressed about Australia’s ability to achieve the predictions are unwarranted, when considering the experience of other countries, particularly Canada.

The think tank compared the rollout in the two countries, given their similarities in area, population size, spread and systems of government in its paper entitled ‘90 days to freedom? Why Australia can learn from Canada’s vaccination success’, released on Wednesday.

The Canadian rollout did not gain strong momentum until May, affected by missteps and supply problems similar to those that have slowed Australia’s rollout, study author, CIS senior fellow and economist Robert Carling suggests.

However, by mid-August, 64 per cent of the total population was fully vaccinated.

Comparatively, Australia’s target of 80 per cent of the eligible population equates to 64 per cent of the total population.

Share of the population fully vaccinated against Covid. Source: Centre of Independent Studies report

Based on the Canadian example, Australia should be able to match Canada’s rollout, Mr Carling argues.

“On 14 August, 21 per cent of all Australians were fully vaccinated (26 per cent of the eligible population),” he says.

“Canada reached that threshold on 21 June and then took eight weeks to reach 64 per cent.

“If Australia could match Canada’s vaccination rate, we would hit the goals easily.”

To date, Australia has not been able to match the speed of Canada’s rollout, mainly because Canada has had plentiful supplies of the preferred Pfizer and Moderna vaccines since April and not relied much on the AstraZeneca vaccine.

However, with a surge in jabs in recent weeks, which are tipped to increase as Pfizer and Moderna deliveries ramp up during September, “that is when we should be able to match Canada’s rapid rollout”.

Australia’s vaccination targets are plausible, the Centre of Independent Studies says. Photo: NCA NewsWire/David Mariuz

“It is this expected enlargement of vaccine supply that makes it possible for Australia to reach the 70 per cent threshold in October and 80 per cent in November,” Mr Carling says in the paper.

“If we were making more effective use of the plentiful AZ vaccine right now, we could do even better.”

But he noted some risks to meeting the target if demand petered out before the threshold was reached.

For example, a recent Australian health department survey revealed 79 per cent of the population had been vaccinated or were likely to be. A similar recent survey in Canada showed 82 per cent were willing.

Therefore, incentives to coax people to achieve the 80 per cent target could be required.

Incentives could coax people to get the jab and reach targets. Photo: NCA NewsWire/David Mariuz

There are also risks associated with supply shortages and shortages of medical professionals to administer vaccines at a higher rate than currently.

“Governments should have been planning for the past year to mitigate these demand and supply risks but — given the lack of a sense of urgency apparent earlier in 2021 — we cannot be sure they have,” Mr Carling said.

Even if vaccination thresholds are met, there’s no guarantee restrictions will be lifted as set out in national cabinet’s latest plan, he adds.

“The biggest risk to the outlook is not the failure to reach thresholds for full vaccination, but that state governments will be excessively cautious in easing restrictions once the thresholds are reached,” he says.

As the 2022 federal election approaches, the risk of “aberrant” behaviour by some premiers would also increase.

“But every day normalisation is delayed, the costs are extremely high,” he added.