Likely honours for impressive diversity of talent at host-free Oscars

Our film experts pick their favourites for top Academy Awards.

Rami Malek as Freddie Mercury in a scene from the Queen biopic Bohemian Rhapsody. Picture: Twentieth Century Fox

As a live event, the Academy Awards has started to look like a wounded beast gasping for breath. Faced with falling ratings, high profile stuff-ups and complaints about a lack of diversity, among other concerns, producers have tried to resuscitate the ceremony with new ideas — introducing an award for popular movies, moving categories into ad breaks, reducing the number of performances by musical nominees — only to reverse course after opposition. This year’s host, comedian Kevin Hart, stood down after old homophobic tweets went public.

He hasn’t been replaced. As a result, this year’s event, which kicks off at 12pm AEDT today, will be the first Oscars ceremony to take place without a host since 1989.

That year is remembered for a strange performance by Rob Lowe and Snow White, but among the films the night was dominated by Rain Man, which picked up four awards, including best picture.

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The recent dramas have distracted from an otherwise remarkable 12 months in film. From Roma to Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody to Cold War, BlacKkKlansman to Green Book, Hollywood also looks a lot more diverse than it has in recent years. Of course there are any number of subplots, including the success of Netflix (via Roma) and the disgrace of Bryan Singer (fired as director from Bohemian Rhapsody).

But eventually the smoke clears, and the films remain. So who will win?

Our film experts — David Stratton, Stephen Romei and Philippa Hawker — share their tips on the four main categories.

Best picture

Yalitza Aparicio in Alfonso Cuaron Roma.

David Stratton: I stand by my opinion that Vice was the best American film of 2018, but it’s unlikely to win. Roma is an exceptional film, but this Mexican production is also nominated in the foreign film category and is a shoo-in to win there. The Favourite would be my next choice, but this tale of 17th-century court ­intrigue seems to have had a mixed response. Spike Lee’s BlacKkKlansman is provocative, and could just possibly surprise us all. I think the Oscar will go to ­either Green Book or Bohemian Rhapsody.

Philippa Hawker: It’s hard to know which way the voters will go with best picture. Alfonso Cuaron’s Roma, a rich evocation of his Mexico City childhood, seems to be the frontrunner: Yorgos Lanthimos’s perverse period comedy-drama The Favourite is definitely in the mix. Black Panther, an ­imaginative superhero blockbuster that breaks some welcome new ground, is also a contender. Normally the choice lands somewhere between middling and ­bewildering; this year, anything could happen.

Stephen Romei: This is an odd Oscars and Faye Dunaway and Warren Beatty haven’t even laid their hands on an envelope yet. Of the 12 movies in the four categories we are considering, the best is Pawel Pawlikowski’s Cold War, a fast-burn, slow-burn, long-burn love story. But it’s not nominated for the main prize. I suspect the Oscar will go to the other foreign-language film, also in black-and-white, Alfonso Cuaron’s Mexico-set Roma, in part as a Hollywood stone lobbed at the wall that is ­Donald Trump. The possible upset, remembering that preferential voting is used only in this category, is Bohemian Rhapsody.

Best director

Stratton: Much as I like Adam McKay’s work on Vice, I think the award will go to either Spike Lee for BlacKkKlansman, one of the best films of his lengthy career, or to Alfonso Cuaron for Roma, with the latter possibly winning the support of voters troubled by the administration’s characterisation of Mexicans. Yorgos Lanthimos is an outside possibility for The ­Favourite. Interesting that out of the five nominees, only two are Americans.

Hawker: Alfonso Cuaron is a frontrunner for Roma, but he already has an Oscar (for Gravity). so maybe voters will take the opportunity to recognise Spike Lee, nominated for the first time for BlacKkKlansman. It would have been good if Marielle Heller had been nominated for her work in Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Romei: Pawlikowski for mine, but again I suspect it will go to Cuaron. Wouldn’t it be odd, though, if Pawlikowski won best director and Roma won best picture? Bruce Beresford would smile. Even odder would be Roma winning best picture and Cold War beating Roma to win best foreign-language film. Stranger things have happened.

Best actor

Stratton: Rami Malek is almost certain to win for his electrifying performance as Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody. His only challenge might come from Viggo Mortensen, who gives one of his best performances as the Italian-American driver in Green Book. Christian Bale ought also to be a serious contender for his impressive impersonation of Dick Cheney in Vice.

Hawker: Rami Malek might just as well have his name engraved on this one already: he has carried off every award for his perfectly competent depiction of Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody. Willem Dafoe’s quietly intense, carefully observed portrait of Vincent van Gogh in At Eternity’s Gate would be a more interesting choice, and it’s a shame that Ethan Hawke wasn’t nominated for his role as a priest riven by doubt in First Reformed — that performance is worth an Oscar.

Romei: My review of Bohemian Rhapsody on November 3 started with this: “When it comes to who will be named best actor at the 91st Academy Awards, put down the glasses. American actor Rami Malek must win for being Freddie Mercury …” Nothing has changed.

Best actress

Glenn Close in a The Wife.

Stratton: The firm favourite is Glenn Close for The Wife. The role of the subservient wife who is ­actually more talented than her husband is a great one for her and she’s splendid in it — plus she ­deserves a reward for a long and distinguished career. Melissa McCarthy is a delight as the real-life forger in Can You Ever Forgive Me? and Olivia Colman is also ­superb as Queen Anne in The Favourite, but this will almost certainly be Close’s year.

Hawker: Glenn Close — a seven-time nominee without a win — seems to be a lock for The Wife, in which she plays a woman har­bouring a lifetime of secrets and ambitions. But Olivia Colman is wonderful, hilarious and poignant as Queen Anne in The Favourite, and Melissa McCarthy does terrific, subtle work as writer-turned-forger Lee Israel in Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Romei: Glenn Close is the biggest bridesmaid in Oscar-land. The Wife is her seventh nomination. That puts her one behind Peter O’Toole, on whom the Academy, thinking better late than never, bestowed an honorary Oscar before he died. I don’t think they’ll wait that long with Close, so she should win. My vote, though, would be for Olivia Colman in The Favourite.

Join Stephen Romei and The Australian’s fashion editor Glynis Traill-Nash as they live blog the 91st Academy Awards today from midday at www.theaustralian.com.au .