Coalition still in the running to control both houses

THE final makeup of Victoria's Legislative Council may not become clear for a fortnight.

THE final makeup of Victoria's Legislative Council may not become clear for a fortnight.

But the Baillieu government retains a serious chance of gaining control of both houses.

Counting continued yesterday, but the complicated preferencing system makes predicting final seat numbers in the upper house a day-to-day proposition.

Coalition upper house leader David Davis was loath to speculate on the final outcome in the 40-seat Legislative Council, in particular whether his government would be able to run legislation through both houses without the need for negotiation with the minor parties or independents.

"We will end up with either 19, 20 or 21 seats," Mr Davis said. "I personally think the most likely outcome is 20, but it's way too early to say. It's inherently unpredictable how the sequence will fall in these preference flows."

The Northern Metropolitan, Western Metropolitan and Northern Victorian regions are where most doubt remains over final numbers. The Country Alliance and the Liberals in Northern Victoria are close but the Liberals' sitting member, Donna Petrovich, looks likely to hold her seat.

And in Western Metro, sitting Greens member Colleen Hartland looks in some trouble, which would see the last two spots go to Labor and Liberal.

This means the remaining undecided seat in Northern Metro could determine whether the Coalition has 20 or 21 seats, the latter enough for an outright majority.

Manningham councillor, journalist and shareholder activist Stephen Mayne is in a tight contest for the fifth and final seat, which could also fall to either Labor or the Liberals.

The ABC's election analyst Antony Green has Mr Mayne ahead when the current count is matched against preferences. But Mr Mayne says if the Greens' proportion of the vote builds by a small amount he would lose to the Liberal candidate. But if the Greens poll an even bigger proportion, Labor would win.

If he does win, and holds the balance of power in the Legislative Council, Mr Mayne, a media adviser to former Liberal treasurer Alan Stockdale, says he wouldn't do an overall deal for his vote. "It would be issue by issue. There would be no grand bargain," he said. "I want economic growth. I'm a low-tax, pro-growth guy, but also a social progressive."

But Greens Legislative Council member Greg Barber said the upper house counting was far too unpredictable for anyone to take winning for granted just yet.

"Four years ago it took the best part of 2 1/2 weeks to all be sorted out," Mr Barber said.

"I'd say to Stephen Mayne and everyone else who's waiting on the counting they ought to go fishing for a couple of weeks."