What does Donald Trump’s election mean for the rest of the world?
Donald Trump will be returned to the White House having secured a far more convincing win than in 2016, perhaps with majorities in both houses of Congress, and with a mandate for radical change.
As a result, world leaders and institutions are bracing for a shake-up of the global order unlike any in modern history.
Now Donald Trump is on his way back to the White House the rest of the world is wondering what lies ahead.Credit: Matthew Absalom-Wong
So far, Trump and his allies, campaigning on an America First platform, have made their isolationist inclinations clear but have not yet laid out specific plans for their engagement with the world.
The international order
When Joe Biden succeeded Trump in 2020, his first foreign policy objective was to rebuild trust with US allies, some of whom felt betrayed by the Trump administration, which had threatened to pull out of NATO and which did withdraw from international agreements like the Paris Treaty on climate and the Iran nuclear deal.
Biden’s State Department sought to reassure America’s friends and allies that the Trump era had been an aberration. That is clearly now not the case.
Trump’s supporters believe his very unpredictability serves to extend peace because global actors fear his potential response to acts of aggression.
A more common view is that the imperfect “long peace” that followed World War II was maintained by a network of carefully fostered alliances – such as NATO – and adherence to norms maintained by the United Nations and its various agencies and related institutions, such as the World Trade Organisation, International Monetary Fund, World Bank and World Health Organisation.
Some Trump supporters have voiced contempt for the entire system, others advocate for only conditional support. The Project 2025 policy document drafted by Trump allies urges his administration to “end blind support” for global institutions.
“If an international organisation is ineffective or does not support American interests, the United States should not support it,” it says.
Global conflict
Trump will return to office during a period of conflict far more violent than during his first term. He declared during his victory speech that he would end wars rather than start them, but he has so far not articulated how he would do so.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been Europe’s first major state-to-state war since World War II. The US has led NATO’s response to the invasion, providing tens of billions of dollars worth of support in arms and finance to Ukraine while moving to isolate Russia diplomatically. US efforts have been opposed by Trump, who has boasted he would end the conflict in 24 hours if re-elected.
This has been interpreted as suggesting that upon inauguration, Trump would call on Ukraine to cede some of its territory to Russia. Ukraine insists it will not capitulate, while Europe remains determined to support what it sees as a bulwark against potential future Russian aggression.
Similarly, Trump has laid out no plan to help end the war between Israel and Gaza as it spirals into conflict with Iran and its proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon, though he has urged Israel to “get the job done” in Gaza. Israeli hardliners were quick to congratulate Trump on his re-election, with newly appointed Defence Minister Israel Katz posting on X: “Together, we’ll strengthen the US-Israel alliance, bring back the hostages and stand firm to defeat the axis of evil led by Iran”.
Trade and the economy
“To me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariff,” Trump told Bloomberg News last month, vowing to increase tariffs on all goods entering the United States to raise revenue and bolster onshore manufacturing.
Though their main purpose would be to increase the price of imports to protect local producers from foreign competition, importers would pass on the cost to US consumers, putting upward pressure on inflation levels that have only just returned to normal after COVID-19 policies and the first Trump trade war.
Trump has declared he would hit all imports with 10 to 20 per cent tariffs, but target China with far higher levies, probably sparking a trade war. Forecasters at Pantheon Macroeconomics project that a 10 per cent tariff would increase inflation by about 0.8 percentage points next year.
The International Monetary Fund’s first deputy managing director, Gita Gopinath, said broad use of tariffs could cost the global economy close to 7 per cent.
US inflation could be further compounded by Trump’s plans to detain or deport up to 11 million undocumented immigrants, many of whom work in low-paid jobs. This would probably force up labour costs and, in turn, US inflation, which tends to be exported due to the sheer weight of the US economy.
Climate
As Trump has dismissed climate science, opposes international treaty obligations and campaigned in support of the fossil fuel industry, his return to the White House will have a significant impact on global efforts to respond to the climate crisis.
His supporters want to end funding for agencies that study climate science, monitor emissions and back the development of clean technology.
These measures would mean the US fails to meet its current goals of reaching 100 per cent carbon pollution-free electricity by 2035 and a net zero emissions economy by 2050.
The Trump administration’s position will hit global climate efforts, too.
The next UN climate talks begin in Azerbaijan on Monday. The key issue is finance and how much the developed world is willing to pay the developing world to help it reduce emissions.
Should the Trump administration withdraw from the UN climate treaty process, the rest of the world is likely to continue in its efforts. However, without the co-operation of the world’s largest emitter and wealthiest nation, progress will be slower and the job more difficult.
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