The Wisconsin election that will serve as a referendum on Trump and Musk

Milwaukee: A judge, a former politician and the head of the Young Republicans walk into a bar. No, it’s not the start of a joke – it’s a weeknight in Wisconsin, and there’s an election to be won.

The judge, Brad Schimel, is running for a seat on the state Supreme Court. The former politician, Scott Walker, was governor of Wisconsin when Schimel was attorney-general, and then appointed him to the bench. Now they’re in the crummy back room of a roadside pub 40 minutes west of Milwaukee, revving up the party faithful in the final days of the campaign.

Judge Brad Schimel at a campaign event at SteelTank Brewing in Oconomowoc, Wisconsin.Credit: Michael Koziol

About half the 50 US states elect Supreme Court judges. And even in states where these elections are technically nonpartisan, Wisconsin included, they are increasingly becoming highly partisan battles between Democrats and Republicans.

None more so than this one. It is by far the most expensive judicial election in US history, with more than $US81 million ($129 million) spent so far, according to the Brennan Centre for Justice. A huge chunk of that – more than a quarter, by most estimates – has been spent by the world’s richest man, Elon Musk, and groups connected to him, backing Schimel.

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel discovered one flyer distributed by Musk’s political action committee which promised Schimel “will support President Trump’s agenda”. “Together we won the White House,” the ad said. “Now it’s time to win the courthouse.”

Musk isn’t the only rich man tipping millions into the race. Liberal mega-donor George Soros has put at least $US2 million behind Crawford, and J.B. Pritzker, the billionaire Democratic governor of neighbouring Illinois, contributed at least $US1.5 million.

Speaking at a rally in the Wisconsin city of Green Bay on Sunday, Elon Musk wore a foam cheesehead hat popular with Packers fans before signing it and throwing it into the crowd, telling them the state’s Supreme Court election was important for the country and possibly the world.Credit: AP

But in some ways, the election is shaping as a quasi-referendum on Musk and his considerable, controversial influence in the Trump administration and modern America.

“We need to talk for just a minute or two about my opponent, Elon Musk,” Susan Crawford, the Democrat-backed candidate taking on Schimel, said at a Friday afternoon event in Kenosha, on the shores of Lake Michigan. Crawford is a circuit court judge who formerly worked for a left-leaning law firm.

The message from Crawford and the Democrats is clear: Musk is trying to buy a seat on Wisconsin’s Supreme Court, and, as Crawford told the crowd, “Brad Schimel has always made it clear that he will sell to the highest bidder”.

Why would Musk care so much? For one, Wisconsin has a law that stops car manufacturers, including Musk’s company Tesla, opening dealerships in the state; they must be run by third parties. Tesla is suing, and the case may end up in the Supreme Court.

Judge Susan Crawford at a campaign stop in Milwaukee. She is backed by the Democratic Party of Wisconsin.Credit: AP

There are also federal matters at play: Democrats say the congressional district boundaries in Wisconsin are heavily gerrymandered, and this could be revisited by the Supreme Court.

But Ben Wikler, the chair of the Democratic Party in Wisconsin, says there’s a bigger picture for Musk: he is so invested in the race that if he loses, his perceived power will collapse.

“Right now, Republicans all think that Elon Musk is their force field,” Wikler, who recently ran for chair of the Democratic National Committee, says. “They can do things that are hideously unpopular and Musk will buy the general election for them so they don’t have to worry about voter backlash.

“But if Brad Schimel loses and Susan Crawford wins, it’ll become clear that the fury that he’s provoking is more powerful than the money that he can pour in to help his friends.”

Brad Schimel’s campaign bus outside Milwaukee, Wisconsin.Credit: Michael Koziol

At the Kenosha event, Crawford and Wikler barely mentioned Trump. And it was Musk, not the president, who featured heavily on the placards of protesters who gathered outside the brewery as Schimel and Walker rolled into town on their “Save Wisconsin” campaign bus.

Inside – surrounded by dart machines and a pool table and an American flag bearing the Pledge of Allegiance, taped to the wall – Schimel recounted how Donald Trump called him to offer his endorsement.

“He said: Brad, what do you think about activist judges?” Schimel told the crowd of about 50. “I said: Mr President, the whole reason I’m in this race is to end the reign of activist judges.”

Trump pledged Schimel his full support. “Then he suddenly says, ‘Here, talk to Elon’,” recalled Schimel, who found himself on the line with the world’s wealthiest man. “Elon wasn’t expecting that either.”

Wisconsin Supreme Court candidate Brad Schimel (in blue jacket) talks to the media after a rally at the American Serb Memorial Hall in Milwaukee.Credit: AP

After the call, Trump posted the endorsement on his Truth Social website. “Brad Schimel is running against Radical Left Liberal Susan Crawford, who has repeatedly given child molesters, rapists, women beaters, and domestic abusers ‘light’ sentences,” he wrote.

“She is the handpicked voice of the Leftists who are out to destroy your State, and our Country – And if she wins, the Movement to restore our Nation will bypass Wisconsin.”

The Badger State has voted for the winning president at each election since Barack Obama in 2008, though the past three have been close: just a margin of 20-30,000 votes. In the campaign, Trump and Kamala Harris visited constantly. The Republican National Convention was held at the Fiserv Forum in downtown Milwaukee.

People here are used to political campaigns, but they’re also tired. The television advertisements are constant. There are signs for Schimel or Crawford in front yards and shop windows. When this correspondent arrived in Milwaukee, a small plane was flying over downtown pulling a banner that said: “Go home Elon. Vote Susan.”

Wisconsin voter Anna Miller, 30, says the environment has been tense since Donald Trump’s election victory in November.Credit: Michael Koziol

Anna Miller, a 30-year-old engineer, received handwritten postcards in the mail asking for her vote. “I’ve never gotten that before,” she says outside a polling place near City Hall, where she voted for Susan Crawford.

Miller says the environment has been tense since Trump’s victory. “[There’s] a tension that seeps into a lot of different conversations, whether it’s with family or even colleagues, in places that you wouldn’t normally discuss politics,” she says.

“Because it’s Wisconsin, you have to be very cautious about what you say because people could have been deep into both sides, and you don’t know which side they’re on.”

The stakes in this judicial election are high. Whoever wins on April 2 will give the Supreme Court a 4-3 majority, liberal or conservative, with the power to make important decisions on state law, including whether to reinstate a centuries-old abortion ban.

Musk held a rally in the Wisconsin city of Green Bay on Sunday night, local time, where he handed over two $US1 million cheques to people who had signed his “Petition in Opposition to Activist Judges”.

Initially, Musk promised to pay the money to people who had voted (for Schimel, presumably) but he changed course after concerns this would breach state law (“That is a felony in Wisconsin, you’re not allowed to buy votes,” Wikler says).

Wisconsin’s Democratic attorney-general unsuccessfully sought an injunction against the financial handout. Ironically, the case was first randomly assigned to none other than circuit court judge Susan Crawford, who quickly recused herself.

On stage on Sunday, Musk autographed a cheese-shaped hat and told the crowd the Wisconsin Supreme Court election was also important for the country and possibly for the world.

“The reason for the cheques is it’s really just to get attention,” Musk said as he handed a $US1 million novelty cheque to Nicholas Jacobs. “When I do these things, it causes the legacy media to kind of lose their minds. And they’ll run it on every news channel.”

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