Initial AUKUS review ‘rewritten to reflect Trump’s support’

Washington: The Pentagon’s initial review of the AUKUS pact had to be rewritten to conform with US President Donald Trump’s enthusiasm for the agreement, three sources said, indicating ongoing scepticism within the US Defence Department about the deal.

The long-awaited review, which has now been handed to the Australian government, the White House and members of the congressional armed services committees, endorses the concept of AUKUS while recommending changes to put it on its “strongest possible footing”.

But the Pentagon’s initial position was more sceptical, according to three sources with knowledge of the matter, and the document had to be reworked to accord with the Trump administration’s support for the deal.

US undersecretary of defence for policy Elbridge Colby, who is an AUKUS sceptic, led the review.Credit: Bloomberg

The review was led by US undersecretary of defence for policy Elbridge Colby, a declared AUKUS sceptic, who has expressed fears that the agreement will sacrifice US nuclear-powered submarines with no guarantee about how they will be used in a regional conflict with China.

The sources differed on how strongly the Pentagon diverged from the White House. One person said the initial review was knocked back twice, requiring substantial rewrites, while another said it was a “back-and-forth” process, similar to any departmental document.

One person said Colby’s “contempt” for AUKUS was “still visible in the review”.

The Pentagon did not intend to make the review public, a spokesman said.

Democratic congressman Joe Courtney, who is on the House of Representatives armed services committee and co-chairs the Friends of Australia Caucus, said the review affirmed the existing timeline of the AUKUS deal, including the sale of three Virginia-class submarines to Australia, starting in 2032.

“The report correctly determined that there are critical deadlines that all three countries have to meet,” he said. “Therefore, maintaining disciplined adherence to schedule is paramount.”

That statement reflects concerns that the United States is not producing enough submarines to honour its commitments to Australia, and that Australia has not developed the workforce and skills to manage a nuclear submarine program.

Friends of Australia Caucus co-chair congressman Joe Courtney.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

The White House referred questions to the Pentagon. In a statement, Pentagon chief spokesman Sean Parnell said: “Consistent with President Trump’s guidance that AUKUS should move ‘full steam ahead’, the review identified opportunities to put AUKUS on the strongest possible footing.”

Trump dispelled doubts about AUKUS when he met Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in October, strongly committing to the Joe Biden-era deal and declaring it should be expedited rather than abandoned or curtailed.

But even in that meeting, US Navy Secretary John Phelan said there were ambiguities about elements of the agreement that had to be sorted out.

While in Washington, Albanese acknowledged there would have to be changes to AUKUS, but he would not comment on what they were.

The United Kingdom has also noted the disunity within the Trump administration about AUKUS.

At a parliamentary hearing on Tuesday, Conservative MP Jesse Norman said it was wrong to assert there was “absolute clarity” about AUKUS from the US.

“We know that Bridge Colby had severe concerns irrespective of the White House, registered those, was pushed back, and is now having to do a new report,” he said.

British Defence Readiness Minister Luke Pollard responded by saying the conversations he was having with the US about AUKUS were positive and that Trump’s endorsement of the deal was “very helpful”.

Donald Trump and Anthony Albanese at the White House in October.Credit: AP

The agreement requires the president of the day to sign off on selling the submarines to Australia.

The finalisation of the Pentagon’s review, which took nearly six months, comes days before Defence Minister Richard Marles and Foreign Minister Penny Wong travel to Washington for annual talks with their US counterparts, known as AUSMIN.

Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy told reporters in Adelaide: “This report has essentially confirmed what President Trump said in his historic meeting with Prime Minister Albanese: that AUKUS is full steam ahead, and we’re getting on with it … We will engage constructively with its findings and recommendations on how to improve AUKUS even further.”

Conroy said boosting US submarine production rates would be difficult, and the government was “realistic and clear-eyed” about the challenges involved.

The rate of Virginia-class submarine production has languished at about 1.2 boats a year, well below the two or 2.3 boats needed for the US to fulfil its AUKUS commitments.

Courtney said Congress was due to sign off on additional funds for the maritime industrial base in coming weeks, building on more than $US10 billion ($15 billion) invested in the industry since 2018. Australia is also contributing $US3 billion in cash to the US submarine industrial sector, at least $US1 billion of which has already been handed over.

“The [Pentagon’s] report reaffirms that Congress and our Australian allies must continue that effort to achieve the goals of AUKUS,” Courtney said.

Expanding the submarine workforce, supply chain and production facilities were critical to meet the US’s own fleet needs and those of Australia, he said.

The USS North Dakota, a Virginia-class submarine of the type Australia would acquire under the AUKUS deal.

Courtney also said the AUKUS agreement had now survived changes of government in all three member countries.

Marles yesterday confirmed the Australian government had received the Pentagon’s AUKUS review and that it was working through its contents.

Marles and Wong are due to meet with War Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Monday, US time, for the AUSMIN talks.

Sophia Gaston, a foreign policy analyst and an AUKUS expert at King’s College in London, said the Trump administration’s approach to AUKUS reflected its broader instinct on alliances.

“It’s about creating a mutually reinforcing uplift to national capability and competitiveness,” she said. “The review’s conclusion will unleash a new narrative that modernises the pact with a stronger emphasis on pace and delivery.

“The question is the extent to which all three governments are willing to pull the levers to deliver ‘AUKUS full fat’ rather than just ‘AUKUS lite’.”

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