A weaker Trump should mean a bolder resistance – including on Ukraine
Washington: If you feel the need to keep assuring people of something, that’s probably a sign it’s not true. So, when US President Donald Trump posts “the Republican Party has never been so UNITED AS IT iS RIGHT NOW”, as he did on Monday (AEDT), it does make you wonder.
Trump said ructions in the Republican Party were essentially limited to a trio of malcontents – Marjorie Taylor Greene, who has flagged her resignation, Kentucky agitator Thomas Massie and libertarian senator Rand Paul – as well as “a couple of other lowlifes”.
But that’s not entirely accurate. In the past few days, many Republicans were aghast at the proposed deal being offered by the Trump administration to Ukraine to end the war with Russia. They were not shy to condemn it.
Donald Trump says ructions in the Republican Party are essentially limited to a trio of malcontents.Credit: Bloomberg
Former Senate leader Mitch McConnell labelled it appeasement and a “capitulation” to Moscow. Bill Cassidy, a Louisiana senator, said it weakened the United States. Brian Fitzpatrick, a Republican congressman from Pennsylvania, called it “garbage” and “nothing more than Russia’s absurd wish list”.
Plenty are also confused by how the 28-point plan was put together – even more so after a group of senators, having been briefed directly by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, announced at a news conference that he told them it was actually a Russian document, not a US proposal.
Rubio quickly responded, assuring the world that was not the case. But it speaks volumes about the plan itself that numerous US senators from across the political spectrum were prepared to believe it was fundamentally Russian, not American.
The original plan has now, inevitably, begun to change – it was never something Ukraine was going to agree to. And it was never something that was good for the US, either, given how it hampered Ukraine, bolstered Russia and let Russian President Vladimir Putin off the hook just as Trump is applying pressure with additional oil sanctions.
Which left you wondering: Who is driving the bus? Is it Rubio, who emerged from talks in Geneva on Monday optimistic that progress is being made? Is it Trump’s envoy-for-everything Steve Witkoff? Or perhaps Russian businessman Kirill Dmitriev, with whom Witkoff drafted the 28-point plan?
It’s probably not Trump, who is growing impatient, beginning to lose his iron grip on the Republican Party and MAGA movement, and keen to prioritise domestic concerns. An adviser told The Atlantic magazine: “He’s simply tired of the war, of thinking about it and being asked about it.”
We now have 10 months of data on Trump’s attitude to this issue. While there have been dramatic shifts in his tone and position – recall his momentary optimism that Ukraine could keep fighting and win the war – overall, the president’s instincts have been consistent. They were evident back in February during that shakedown of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office.
In Trump’s view, Ukraine has not been sufficiently grateful for the US’s charity. It was somehow complicit in its own invasion by allowing it to happen (along with former US president Joe Biden). And it “doesn’t hold the cards” on the battlefield: true, for the most part.
Trump reiterated those points again on Sunday (Monday AEDT) as the talks in Geneva were under way. Ukraine’s leadership had shown “ZERO GRATITUDE”, he wrote on social media. And the war would not have happened if Kyiv (and Washington) had “strong and proper” leadership at the time.
These are Trump’s north stars on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, along with what seems like genuine dismay over senseless killing for little territorial gain, and exasperation that it is so difficult to resolve.
Putin will be hoping that the domestic political pressures on Trump, including a view from some America First types that he is spending too much time on foreign affairs, will play in his favour.
But it’s also the case that as Trump’s iron grip on the party starts to slip, Republicans who disagree with him are emboldened to speak louder – and act.
Some Republicans are now renewing their push to pass legislation that would impose crushing new sanctions, including a 500 per cent US tariff on any country that still buys Russian oil, among other measures.
Trump has resisted the full gamut of proposed sanctions, arguing it would undermine negotiations with Putin.
Republican senator Lindsey Graham, who led the push in the upper chamber, says it’s time to pull the trigger.
“Going after Russia’s oil customers is the way to push Putin to the peace table,” he said on the weekend. “It is imperative we move this bill through Congress as soon as possible to ensure an honourable and just peace in Ukraine.”
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