Iran has fired missiles in Israel. Why? What’s next?

For the second time in a year, Iran has launched missiles at Israel amid an escalation in the conflict engulfing the Middle East. So why has that happened, who are the players and what happens next?

Below is a quick run down of the fast-moving situation.

Why has Iran attacked Israel?

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it launched missiles into Israel on Tuesday (Wednesday AEST) in response to the assassination of two key figures – Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah last week and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the military operation was “a decisive response to the aggression of the Zionist regime”.

“Let Netanyahu know that Iran is not a belligerent, but it stands firmly against any threat … Do not enter into a conflict with Iran.”

The strikes were defended by Israel and the US and caused minimal damage and one death.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a post on X early on Wednesday: “Our action is concluded unless the Israeli regime decides to invite further retaliation. In that scenario, our response will be stronger and more powerful.”

Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran had “made a big mistake” and “will pay for it”. Israel Defence Forces (IDF) spokesperson Daniel Hagari said the attack had been serious and “will have consequences”.

These latest military and verbal shots fired by each side represent a significant escalation of tensions between the rival nations, and threaten to cause more bloodshed in the region.

Iran’s strikes came hours after Israel launched a ground invasion of Lebanon and less than a week after the assassination of Nasrallah. They followed shellings and pager and walkie-talkie explosions that killed several Hezbollah leaders and more than 1000 people in Lebanon. Experts said Iran would have felt the need to respond.

“If it didn’t do so, it risks losing a major ally in the region,” said University of Melbourne senior lecturer in political science Simon Frankel Pratt.

Deakin University professor of Middle East politics Shahram Akbarzadeh said the strikes were part of an ideological battle traced to the 1979 Iranian revolution, when Iran and Israel transformed from friends to enemies.

“Iran’s state identity is based on its anti-Americanism and based on challenging Israel for its occupation of Palestinian land,” Akbarzadeh said.

He said the strikes were driven by beliefs, reinforced by the war in Gaza, that the US was a global bully and Israel needed to be destroyed.

The Israel-Gaza war is approaching its first anniversary, and the death toll in Gaza has exceeded 41,600, according to the Gazan Health Ministry.

“Iran couldn’t ask for a better example,” Akbarzadeh said. “They’re bombing civilians in Gaza for almost a year, thousands of deaths, and the US has stood by and allowed Israel to carry on. ”

He said Iran had mostly outsourced its fighting against Israel to Hezbollah but agreed with the view Nasrallah’s assassination meant Iran had to act otherwise it would “look as though Iran was neglecting its leading role as the champion of the resistance movement”.

Who are Iran’s allies in the Middle East?

Non-state groups that make up Iran’s so-called “axis of resistance” include Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthi rebels in Yemen and Hamas in Gaza. These groups have their own domestic agendas and internal politics but are united by opposition to Israel and the US presence in the Middle East.

Houthis have historically never directly attacked the US or its allies, but this changed during the war in Gaza. Houthi strikes on shipping in the Red Sea, in support of Hamas, have caused economic ripple effects around the world.

Iran has provided military and financial support to Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, making the localised armed groups into powerful military organisations.

Akbarzadeh said terminology was important. “We have to be careful when we call them proxies – Iranian support for these groups doesn’t mean there’s a direct chain of command from Iran. They are quite autonomous. They can act independently of Iran, but they are very much aligned.”

Can Israel withstand the attack?

Pratt said the limited impact of the strikes showed Israel could “manifestly” withstand Iran’s attack. “I view this missile attack as a sign of [Iran’s] weakness, rather than strength.

“Iran has plenty more missiles to lob. But Israelis know they [have to] get to a bomb shelter. Most apartments have bomb shelters. They can get to one in a minute or less. Ballistic missiles take 10 minutes to reach Israel from Iran.”

Akbarzadeh agreed Israel could withstand Iranian strikes due to its outsized military capacity and powerful allies.

“Israel has the most advanced military force in the Middle East, the most high-tech. Israel can withstand the combined forces of all Arab states if it comes to it.”

However, Akbarzadeh said the larger threat to Israel was the growing popularity of Iran’s anti-Israel ideology, which could mobilise attacks from militia groups in neighbouring countries.

“[Iran’s] message finds a receptive ear in the region. That’s what makes it strong, not its military hardware,” he said.

“This experience of Israel going into Gaza, fighting Hezbollah, fighting Iran, has made the state of Israel very insecure, and also a pariah state now in the international community.”

What is Hezbollah?

Hezbollah is a Shiite Muslim political party and militant group regarded as a terrorist organisation by Australia, the US, the UK and other Western nations.

It was founded during the 15-year Lebanese civil war (1975-1990) after Israel’s invasion and occupation of Lebanon in 1982.

In 1985, with the publication of a manifesto, Hezbollah pledged allegiance to Iran and vowed to fight the Israeli occupation of Lebanon and Palestinian territories.

The Lebanese civil war ended with the Taif Agreement, which aimed to replace violence with democracy. Hezbollah then formed a political party and won 12 out of 128 parliamentary seats in the 1992 national election.

Its popularity has grown over the years, to make it one of the most influential political forces in the country. Today, Hezbollah and its allies hold 62 parliamentary seats.

Under the peace agreement, Hezbollah was allowed to keep its military wing to fight Israeli occupation in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah also provides civil services to Lebanese citizens, such as social welfare, healthcare, and education, in some parts of the country.

Iran provides Hezbollah with weapons and financial support. According to Nasrallah in 2016: “Hezbollah’s budget, everything it eats and drinks, its weapons and rockets, comes from the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

When the Israel-Gaza war began, Hezbollah was quick to express support for Hamas and immediately began launching rockets at civilian and military targets in northern Israel.

The Israeli government evacuated roughly 100,000 citizens living near the Lebanese border, and Israel and Hezbollah have engaged in nearly daily rocket fire, which began as low-level but has escalated in recent weeks into a ground invasion of Lebanon. Israel’s attacks in Lebanon over the past two weeks have killed more than 1000 people, wounded more than 6000, and displaced more than 1 million residents, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry and the United Nations.

Hassan Nasrallah served as Hezbollah leader for 32 years, and following the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, he was briefly considered the most popular leader in the Arab world. Netanyahu personally ordered the strike that killed him and has claimed direct responsibility for the action.

What is expected to happen next?

Australian National University senior lecturer in international relations Alam Saleh said Iran’s attack was a sign that the balance of power in the region was shifting.

He said Iran was becoming more aggressive, and argued the strikes could mean it was preparing for a potential nuclear strike from Israel and adding impetus to the development of its own nuclear weapons.

“To survive, they will have to go nuclear,” he said.

Simon Frankel Pratt, of Melbourne University, disagreed and said the balance of power was still tilted towards Israel. He said the best-case scenario for the next steps would be a “cycle of increasingly smaller retaliations that will peter out”.

The worst-case scenario would be if Israel struck Iran’s nuclear facilities, leading to further escalation, he said.

“Then the US steps in, Iran makes good on threats to set fire to oil fields,” he said.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemned the “broadening conflict in the Middle East” and said: “This must stop. We absolutely need a ceasefire.”

Akbarzadeh said only the US could stop the conflict and push Israel towards a ceasefire. “No one else has the authority, the clout or the respect of players.”

However, he said this was unlikely and Iran’s strikes played “right into Netanyahu’s playbook”. He believes the Israeli prime minister has been looking for a reason to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities and drag the US into the conflict.

“The US is not going to stand by and see its significant regional ally – Israel – being attacked by Iran.”

He said extensions of conflict benefit Netanyahu.

“It will keep him out of prison. If he loses office, and becomes an ordinary citizen, there is a court case against him for corruption. He will end up in prison.”

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