This was published 5 months ago
Opinion
Thought Islamic State had been destroyed? Think again
Rodger Shanahan
Middle East and security analystFor many, the threat from Islamic State ended in the dusty Syrian town of Baghuz in 2019 when the remnants of the organisation finally succumbed to the campaign waged against them by the US-supported Syrian Democratic Forces.
But the attack on the Crocus City Hall in Moscow and Islamic State’s subsequent claim of responsibility is a reminder that the group continues to have strategic reach and has retained the ability to conduct mass casualty attacks against targets outside their countries of origin.
Saidakrami Rachabalizoda, a suspect in the Moscow attack in which 130 people were killed, appeared in court with facial injuries and a large bandage on his ear.Credit: AP
Islamic State wasn’t eradicated in Baghuz even if their pretend caliphate was. The organisation has, little by little, partially recovered and in its atomised form has become increasingly active. It has significant territorial control and hence freedom of action in Africa. But for the West, what goes on in Africa is generally of little interest, so Islamic State’s role there has gone largely unnoticed.
Islamic State’s west African campaign is a success story even if it remains peripheral to the group’s main focus: which is consolidating its remaining foothold in the Middle East, as well as conducting attacks against foreign powers with whom it is in conflict.
There are estimated to be several thousand fighters remaining in Syria and Iraq. They continue to mount attacks against isolated Syrian government targets and against civilians in the vast desert region in the country’s east. However, the presence of US-backed forces in Syria and Iraq, and Russian-backed government forces in Syria, provides sufficient pressure on IS to limit their ability to plan or execute foreign operations.
Islamic State’s broader strategic goals, of gaining attention and kudos through attacks against its regional or Western and European enemies, are normally best achieved through its presence in areas where it has sufficient freedom of action to plan external attacks rather than focus purely on survival.
Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack on the Crocus City Hall.Credit:
That task at present appears to be handled by Islamic State Khorasan Province (IS-K), the group’s Afghan affiliate.
Although the Taliban are ill-disposed to Islamic State, the realities of Afghanistan and of Taliban capabilities and rule means that Islamic State has been able to establish greater freedom of action there than anywhere else other than perhaps Africa. Unlike Africa, however, the ease with which IS-K can enter Europe or elsewhere is markedly different.
Instances of Islamic State’s willingness to attack targets in Europe are becoming increasingly common. Two weeks prior to the Moscow attack, an IS-K cell was disrupted in Moscow as they planned an attack on a synagogue. A week earlier, a two-man IS-K cell was arrested in Germany with plans to attack the Swedish parliament building in retribution for the burning of a Koran during protests in that country. And in January, two IS-K operatives attacked a Catholic church in Istanbul, killing one man. None of the attacks have been overly complex; in Iran it involved the use of explosive devices but elsewhere small arms were the weapon of choice.
But in the modern era, where social media amplifies actions beyond their immediate impact, sometimes volume has its own attraction, so the number of attacks can be as important as the quality.
That being said, the significant death toll from the Moscow attack is testimony to just how much damage well-armed attackers can do in places of mass gathering that lack adequate security.
The withdrawal from Afghanistan notwithstanding, media reports that the US provided intelligence to both Iran and Russia about potential IS-K attacks in their countries before the attacks occurred would indicate that Washington has retained the ability to monitor some of Islamic State’s intentions even if it has a limited ability to respond to them at source.
The IS threat now is qualitatively different to the one posed by it during its height. Its loss of territory has meant that the allure of travelling to the caliphate is no longer something that attracts foreign nationals.
But it has demonstrated that it retains the intent, and the capability, to conduct external operations against the types of targets that it has focused on in the past: In Iran and Russia, places of mass gathering; in Istanbul, a church; in Moscow, a synagogue.
The head of ASIO Mike Burgess advised that Sunni violent extremism represents the greatest religious extremist threat in Australia in a speech earlier this year. And while our role in the anti-IS coalition and place in the Western alliance generally makes us a target, and expatriates or travellers may get caught in the wrong place at the wrong time, Islamic State’s external attack planners find countries such as the United States and Australia much more challenging to plan attacks against than regional or European countries.
But the recent attacks should be a reminder to the public at large that while the threat from Islamic State has been greatly reduced, it nevertheless remains.
Dr Rodger Shanahan has appeared as an expert witness in Australian terrorism cases and is the author of Islamic State in Australia. As an army officer, his operational experience included Lebanon, Syria and Afghanistan.
Get a weekly wrap of views that will challenge, champion and inform your own. Sign up for our Opinion newsletter.