Japan’s prime minister is fighting for his political life after election rout

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s snap election gamble has blown up in his face.

Voters meted out severe punishment to his Liberal Democratic Party coalition in the parliament’s lower house elections on Sunday, stripping it of its majority as dozens of seats fell, and leaving no party with a clear mandate to govern.

The political wipeout, the LDP’s worst result since 2009 when it lost power, may spell the end of Ishiba’s leadership before it truly began, just a month ago.

Shigeru Ishiba, who secured the leadership of Japan’s ruling LDP last month, is already facing the potential end of his prime ministership after an election rout on Sunday.Credit: AP

The LDP, its junior coalition partner the Komeito, and other opposition parties now have 30 days under the Japanese constitution to cobble together a government from the new make-up of the parliament, the National Diet.

Professor Satoru Mori, an international politics specialist at Keio University in Tokyo, said while it was likely the LDP, as the largest bloc, would still form part of the next governing coalition, Ishiba’s leadership was unlikely to survive the fallout. The messy negotiation process to form government will require the selection of a new cabinet and prime minister capable of securing the endorsement of the majority of the lower house.

“The LDP and Komeito party may still choose a leader, but Ishiba may not get the approval of the majority of the Diet. This means that every time they try to pass a bill in the Diet, they have to negotiate and deal with the opposition party on an issue-by-issue basis,” Mori said.

The LDP has governed Japan for almost all its post-war history, and has become a political force dominated by family dynasties, and men aged in their 50s and 60s who have spent careers climbing the internal hierarchy.

This election was a referendum on the LDP’s failure to dispel voters’ concerns about a slush fund scandal that embroiled the party’s top ranks last year. For Ishiba, it represents a miscalculation, a savage response to his calling an election just eight days after taking office on October 1. He replaced outgoing prime minister Fumio Kishida, who himself bowed out in the face of diabolical polling over his handling of the slush fund scandal.

“People expected fundamental reform of the LDP but all the measures were half-hearted. They did not completely expel those involved in the slush fund affair. Ishiba didn’t represent genuine renewal, and that’s one of the big reasons why this was the result,” Mori said.

Outgoing prime minister Fumio Kishida.Credit: AP

Before Sunday’s vote, the LDP had a majority in its own right. But this collapsed as counting continued late into the evening, leaving the LDP and Komeito with a combined 215 seats, well short of the 233 required to form a majority. Two cabinet ministers and Komeito’s leader lost their seats.

The main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, rode a wave of support to win 148 seats, up from its previous 98. Other smaller parties could also be part of the negotiations.

The yen plunged to a three-month low on investor uncertainty over possibly weeks of political machinations and horse-trading to form a new government.

For his part, Ishiba conceded the drubbing was “very severe”, telling Japan’s public broadcaster NHK on Sunday: “I don’t think we were able to gain the public’s understanding.”

CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda has already signalled that a fight for the leadership could be on the cards.

The rate of the yen against the US dollar displayed on an electronic stock board outside a securities firm in Tokyo on Monday. The yen fell to its weakest level in almost three months after Japan’s ruling coalition failed to win a majority in parliament at the weekend’s election. Credit: Bloomberg

“If it comes to a situation where we must compete for the prime minister’s job, it’s only natural to go for it,” Noda told Fuji TV.

Tobias Harris, who runs Japan Foresight, a political risk advisory firm in Washington, said one possible outcome was for Ishiba to stay on as a caretaker prime minister in the short term if the parties could not agree on a consensus candidate.

“Whether or not [he] resigns as LDP leader today, it seems unlikely that he will survive to lead a new government as prime minister, the losses being significant enough to make it difficult for him to escape responsibility,” Harris said in a note to subscribers.

Yoshihiko Noda, head of Japan’s Constitutional Democratic Party, has signalled a fight for the leadership is on the cards. Credit: Bloomberg

But with voter turnout hovering at about 53 per cent, replicating the trend of below 60 per cent in the past four general elections, there is clearly a deep public malaise towards the country’s political class.

“These election returns suggest that Japan’s longer-term political crisis is far from over. Lower turnout suggests that almost a majority of voters remain so dismayed by their choices that they are choosing to stay home instead of vote,” Harris said.

Get a note directly from our foreign correspondents on what’s making headlines around the world. Sign up for our weekly What in the World newsletter.