The Maroons are faster and flashier. But they have a weakness and Blues can exploit it

Just maybe, the State of Origin gods have smiled on NSW this week, because I don’t think coach Michael Maguire could have hoped for more suitable conditions in the series opener on Wednesday night.

When Maguire revealed his team last week, I looked at it and thought, “Gee, the Blues would love some rain and a wet surface”. The good news for them is, they’re going to get it.

The Accor Stadium surface is often slippery at this time of year. Throw in some wear and tear to the turf from the Matildas’ friendly against China on Monday night, and we will have a surface more suited to NSW’s power game than to Queensland’s faster and flashier outside backs.

But how do the Blues mastermind a game one win?

I reckon Queensland have one vulnerability not many people are talking about: Daly Cherry-Evans. The Blues need to unsettle him. The more tackles he makes, the less effective he will be in attack. As the dominant half for Queensland, Cherry-Evans will get 90 per cent of the good quality ball.

We know he is elite with the ball in hand, but the Blues have to direct a lot of their attack down the left channel because I think Cherry-Evans is susceptible to errors in defence.

NSW need to send their big boppers Daly Cherry-Evans’ way.Credit: Getty

Sometimes his spacing and decision-making is inconsistent. In game three last year, we saw what Cody Walker achieved in that part of the field. This time, it’s going to be the responsibility of Jarome Luai to run that side of the field, and he needs to get his back-rower one-on-one with Cherry-Evans as much as possible. Force him to make as many defensive decisions as possible. If there is a vulnerability there, expose it. Go back to it time and again.

Maybe Queensland’s captain and most experienced player is the one NSW should be trying to rattle.

I’ve got no doubt Maguire would have put somewhere between 60 and 70 per cent of his focus on NSW’s defence throughout the preparation. He has picked a team of scrappers and tacklers, which means Payne Haas has to play a huge role for NSW as their main metre-eater in the forward pack. Then, they have to defend like their lives depend on it.

NSW five-eighth Jarome Luai needs to have a perfect kicking game on Wednesday.Credit: Getty

It’s difficult to see NSW scoring more than 18 points. In the wet, you’ve got to be able to create opportunities with kicks. Nicho Hynes and Luai need to be close to 10 out of 10 with the boot if the Blues are to stand any chance.

It was so sad to see Dylan Edwards withdraw due to a quad complaint, but the big concern for me is Hynes’ calf. He just has to get through the game with a degree of control over where NSW are turning the ball over, and then let the likes of Haumole Olakau’atu and Hudson Young cause some damage from the bench. I’d love to see Young play through the middle and use his speed and mobility, similar to Anthony Watmough back in his day.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Joseph Suaalii and Zac Lomax swapping roles at centre and wing. I like Suaalii returning the ball from the wing, and I think Lomax makes sounder defensive decisions, which means he would be better suited to centre.

James Tedesco? Well, what do you say? If the pressure ratchets up or NSW are feeling the heat, he will be a cool head for them to lean on. In fact, I’ll go as far as to say he can be man of the match on Wednesday night. Wouldn’t that be a story.

Queensland have a huge advantage with their combinations in the playmaking areas. Cherry-Evans, Harry Grant and Ben Hunt have played so much football together, they have an understanding of how Reece Walsh likes to play, and Tom Dearden was sensational in his only Origin appearance a couple of years ago.

Payne Haas training with the Blues.Credit: NRL Photos

The slippery conditions will hamper their ability to move the ball laterally quickly, which might be in NSW’s favour.

But coach Billy Slater also has a very deliberate plan, choosing a bunch of lightweight, mobile forwards, with Reuben Cotter and Pat Carrigan leading the way.

Their X-factor might be Lindsay Collins. When you talk about Origin players, just watch some of his tapes. He scores tries, he saves them and he even had the audacity to outleap Tedesco for that famous sealer in the dying minutes in Adelaide last year.

There has been a lot of talk about Selwyn Cobbo’s inclusion on the bench, but I reckon it’s a masterstroke from Slater. He’s got middle forwards who can play longer minutes, and he has that insurance in case anything happens to his back line.

It’s a back line that would scare most rugby league coaches, but it’s also a back line that has errors in it, particularly around Walsh. NSW have got to find a way to exploit that.

The opening game of any series is usually a tight, low-scoring affair. I don’t expect this to be any different.

Maybe, just maybe, the Origin gods do come from NSW.

Joey’s tip: NSW by 4
First try-scorer: Liam Martin
Man of the match: James Tedesco

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