The first team to stem the tide of tries will emerge victorious

The first team to install a “sea wall” defence to counter the surges of momentum in the modern game will win the NRL grand final.

It’s easier said than done. Momentum is such a powerful force that defensive-minded coaches, such as the Storm’s Craig Bellamy, are as hapless in stopping a tsunami of tries as King Canute was in holding back the tide.

The pendulum between attack and defence in today’s game has tilted strongly to the team with the ball, leading to some of the big scores each round. It’s partly to do with the players themselves: the ad lib ones, such as the Roosters’ young half Sam Walker, Brisbane’s Reece Walsh and even older ones such as Melbourne’s Cameron Munster.

Historically, the premiers tend to set the playing trend and the Panthers, winners of three successive premierships, have been led by an attack-minded pair of halves – Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai – and a ball-distributing lock, Isaah Yeo.

Earlier, when the Storm dominated grand finals, their attack was more structured, allowing the defence to anticipate it.

The NRL’s rules are also a major factor in creating momentum. After five seasons of adapting to changes in the six-again rule, the playing action is now at the attacking end of the field. When the repeat set rule was introduced in round 3, 2020, it was predictable the defence would deliberately concede ruck breaches on the first and second tackles.

Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai have ushered in a new era.Credit: NRL Photos

Lesser teams found it impossible to escape their half. Now, breaches for this, plus offside defence, result in a penalty when inside the 40-metre zone. Outside this territory, the referee rules repeat sets. It’s taken time for players and even referees to adjust.

The combination of the rule changes and player spontaneity has resulted in momentum becoming increasingly powerful. The number of tries scored is testament: 1009 tries at the end of round 17 in 2024 versus 968 to the same round last year, as sourced by Champion Data. Consider the sequence behind the lead boulder in the avalanche of NSW tries in the State of Origin match at the MCG.

The Maroons conceded a penalty in the seventh minute for a dangerous tackle, followed by a six-again ruling for being inside the 10 metres in defence. Then came another six again for a ruck infringement, followed by a NSW kick in-goal, forcing the Maroons into a goal-line dropout. With four successive sets of possession, NSW scored its first try after 10 minutes and 48 seconds, surfing momentum which resulted in a 34-0 half-time score.

The Maroons camp blamed the result on repeat sets, pointing out there were two in each half, with Queensland receiving their pair in the second half which they won 18-4. Referees aren’t accountable for repeat sets, as they are blown on the run. They reinforce the view of many that referees semi-consciously, or otherwise, act as choreographers.

However, momentum and six-agains feed off each other. A defensive team is likely to panic and breach the rules when a team is surging forward.

The NRL have added further force to momentum by stripping many stoppages from the game, thereby increasing ball-in-play time and adding to the attrition of the defence.

The NRL likes tries. They inevitably result in stoppages but they allow advertising breaks on TV, which means richer broadcasting contracts. The players have bought into the NRL’s rule changes which have forced play into the attacking 60 metres of the field. As NRL executive general manager of elite football, Graham Annesley points out, “There has been a decrease of total infringements inside the 40m zone over the last few seasons.”

Another factor in the pendulum tilting to attack is the change in tackling style. It began about 15 years ago when the first two players into a tackle were effectively taught to tackle the ball. So, any youngster watching NRL back then and who is now playing at the top level hasn’t been properly schooled in positioning his feet to execute the driving tackle below the ball we once admired.

A switch in momentum saw the Panthers sweep over the Broncos in last year’s grand final. The 2024 winner will be the team which surfs its momentum wave with tries but thwarts the opposition’s opportunities with a “sea wall defence.”

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