In the coffin of All Blacks rugby, the Bledisloe Cup is in play

Here’s a statistic for the dreamers and optimists: the All Blacks haven’t won a single Test in Wellington, where they play the Wallabies in the second Bledisloe Test this year, since 2018.

The Cake Tin has become a coffin for All Blacks rugby, the place they go to implode.

When Los Pumas beat New Zealand in Wellington two weeks ago, they did so scoring 38 points – the most the All Blacks have ever conceded in New Zealand.

It wasn’t supposed to be this way for the All Blacks under new coach Scott Robertson, but assistant coach Leon MacDonald wasn’t supposed to leave abruptly either.

His shock exit was announced on Thursday and despite Robertson’s best efforts to put out the fire, it followed some up-and-down performances from the All Blacks this year, Robertson’s own admission that the players weren’t playing how they had been training, and Damian McKenzie’s missed bus to the San Diego Airport (nothing to see here, said the All Blacks in a line no one is buying).

No one, with any degree of confidence, can predict what the All Blacks will deliver against the Springboks next weekend, and therein lies their problem – they have become an unpredictable team, now with an added spoonful of coaching disharmony added to the mix.

The All Blacks were looking for answers after conceding a record 38 points against Argentina.Credit: Getty Images

The Wallabies have their own issues, of course, but the sound of popcorn being munched on Thursday was coming from the Australian side of the ditch, as Wallabies fans sat back and watched the drama unfold in New Zealand with a sense of glee that it finally wasn’t happening in their backyard.

Joe Schmidt’s Wallabies might be a slow and steady affair, but that is preferable to press releases confirming “robust discussions” (i.e. blazing rows) between two members of the coaching staff as one heads for the exit.

For the Wallabies to be competitive in this year’s Bledisloe Tests they will need to look after their own business in Argentina in the coming weeks.

That will mean getting Taniela Tupou back to the encouraging form he was showing before a close family bereavement made him an understandable absentee for two Tests, and probably introducing a new cap or two.

Hamish Stewart deserves a crack at the Wallabies No.12 jersey.Credit: Getty Images

As colleagues Michael Atkinson and Iain Payten eloquently argued on the Inside Line podcast, Hamish Stewart has more than paid his dues and is deserving of a crack in the No.12 jersey, where he will offer his No.10 the value of his experience.

Incorrectly omitted in the first place, Josh Canham must also get some minutes in Argentina to provide the sort of mongrel that the Wallabies have tried to manufacture, with mixed results, from other sources across the first five Tests of the year.

But the harsh reality is that the Wallabies were always going to be reliant on the All Blacks coming back to them to put the Bledisloe Cup in play this year, which is why MacDonald’s exit was such a source of fascination for rugby observers when the news broke on Thursday.

The All Blacks, of course, are more than capable of going to South Africa and producing something special, given the quality of their individuals. But they have given the impression of an unsettled side this year, frequently tinkering with their selections and leaning on some players who won’t even be at the next Rugby World Cup.

The first Bledisloe Test, in Sydney on September 21, was always going to be laced with intrigue given that Schmidt will be coaching against players he knows very well, but if the Wallabies can display signs of real progress in the coming weeks in Argentina it will make the instability in New Zealand all the more relevant.

Sydney, of course, has been hard yakka for the Wallabies in recent years, but the Wallabies also have an opportunity in Argentina to reintegrate Brandon Paenga-Amosa, get some more crucial minutes into Angus Bell, and allow Carlo Tizzano to build on the highly promising start to his Test career: Fraser McReight’s injury really has been a blessing in disguise.

A Bledisloe upset would be a huge plot twist in this year’s rugby script, but look at where the money is going for next weekend’s Tests: punters reckon the Wallabies are a better chance of knocking over the Pumas than the All Blacks are of beating the Springboks.

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