Why every Victorian should be celebrating a double interstate AFL grand final

Melbourne feels moribund this week. Yes, our premier event, our most sacrosanct of days – the AFL grand final – is proceeding in 2024 with no Victorian teams in it for the first time in 18 years. But this is not a cause for lament.

When the Brisbane Lions take on the Sydney Swans at the home of football this weekend, it will essentially be a FIFO event. The players, their teams, supporters, families and friends will all fly in and fly out, with one team taking the flag home.

The Sydney Swans will face the Brisbane Lions in the 2024 AFL Grand Final, bringing with it a major tourism influx.Credit: AFL Photos via Getty Images

If we think about it clearly, this is an opportunity. Because the flocks of Swans and prides of Lions that are set to descend on Melbourne in the coming days could give Victoria the huge jolt it so desperately needs by adding a big spending boost to the state’s flailing economy.

Not only have Brisbane and Sydney’s AFL teams beat us at our own game, they’re beating us economically, too. We could use a bit of their magic.

Right now, Victorian government spending is keeping the state from falling into recession, at a time when Victoria’s unemployment rate is the nation’s highest at 4.5 per cent. That’s materially higher than NSW at 4 per cent, Queensland at 4.2 per cent, and the national average of 4.1 per cent.

Over the past year, household spending growth across Victoria was the second-weakest in the nation at 3.9 per cent from July 2023 to July 2024, according to the Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Indicator. In Queensland and NSW, spending grew far more quickly, at 4.9 and 4.2 per cent respectively during the same period.

The most recent GDP figures also show Queensland is experiencing a surge in spending on recreation and culture (up 1.4 per cent over the past three months, compared to a fall of 1.4 per cent in Victoria). If the banana benders bring their big-spending ways to Melbourne, it could be a great long weekend for businesses across the city.

The MCG has a capacity of 100,000 and the AFL has allocated 35,000 seats to supporters of the two teams (not to mention all the corporate fans). Brace yourself for literal plane loads of Bloods supporters and Lions fans disembarking at Tullamarine.

Come Friday, Melbourne is set to be a city of revelry as supporters check into hotels, dine at cafes and restaurants, drink in pubs and bars, and step out onto the streets. It’s not quite an act of charity for a wealthy citizen of Kangaroo Point or Newtown to come to Melbourne and spend big on parmas and potato cakes, but it does help spread the wealth.

When Taylor Swift graced Australia with her Eras Tour in February, for example, the economic impact was so enormous that the national statistical bodies had to tweak their usual seasonal adjustment parameters to account for it.

The Sydney Swans will face the Brisbane Lions in the 2024 AFL Grand Final on Saturday, September 28.Credit: Getty

In Melbourne alone, where Swift played three sold-out shows at the MCG, and thousands also travelled from interstate for the event, the economic injection was estimated to be around $34 million per day.

And let’s not pretend that, despite our state’s absence on the field, Victorians won’t still fill pubs across the state come game day. In 2022, when the Swans faced off against Geelong, the spending impact of interstate and Victorians revellers during the grand final was estimated by the NAB to be $294 million.

Queenslanders in particular owe us one given the number of Victorians who have flown north and spent their hard-earned this year. Usually, it’s us heading up there, not the other way around. (Nobody who has ever been to Noosa will be surprised to hear that Victorians spent 15 million nights in Queensland last year, while Queenslanders spent only 7 million nights in Victoria, according to official tourism data). At the end of another icy Melbourne winter, it’s nice for Queensland to give a little back.

So come Saturday afternoon, as one team declares victory and carries the premiership cup home to rest in a northern state for another year, at least Victoria will have won something in capturing a bit of the economic upside the rest of the country has been enjoying for months.

Jason Murphy is an economist and freelance writer.

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