The ladder lies. These are the true indicators of finals form

At this time of year, the ladder lies.

Nine teams are still in the hunt, but how they’re building – or scrambling – towards September tells a different story.

Some look off. Have they peaked too early? Others are rising to the occasion, thriving in big games and building real momentum. And a few haven’t been tested in weeks.

Contenders: The ladder has nine teams in the hunt, but it doesn’t tell the full story.Credit: Aresna Villanueva/Getty Images

The ladder can’t show you that. If you want the smarter read, you have to watch what teams are doing now, and why.

Building the best 23

Right now, only Collingwood and Brisbane – maybe Geelong – are positioned to manage their players smartly. The Pies, half a game clear on top, are clearly prioritising freshness over form. This past month has proved it: Patrick Lipinski and Brody Mihocek managed, Scott Pendlebury used as sub. They’re willing to sacrifice a win if it means getting the bigger picture right. But with two losses in a row, they now need to be careful not to flirt too much with their form.

This is where their early season wins pay off. With the oldest list in the comp and key injuries, Collingwood will fall back on their experience in these moments. Jordan De Goey? They need him in September, not in round 20. Billy Frampton, Jeremy Howe and Dan Houston – they’ll take the time they need. Experience is where the Pies hold a trump card.

Craig McRae has been resting Pies players given their buffer at the top.Credit: Getty Images

Fremantle welcomed back arguably their best line-breaking midfielder on Sunday, Hayden Young, against the Pies, with captain Alex Pearce still to return. It was a timely boost that only strengthened the Dockers.

Speaking of depth, keep an eye on Hawthorn. It was exciting to see the return of Mitch Lewis against Port Adelaide, with Changkuoth Jiath, Jack Scrimshaw, Max Ramsden and Luke Breust all lining up in the VFL. Josh Weddle and Will Day are also edging closer to return, while Mabior Chol was rested with soreness. That kind of internal pressure drives standards. It’s clear Sam Mitchell is still figuring out his best side, and no one is safe. That uncertainty is keeping the Hawks hungry.

Defensive identity

Finals footy is brutal: contested, chaotic, and relentless. The best teams know now is the time to tighten up defensively – and test their systems under pressure.

Collingwood and Adelaide are elite at restricting scores, both from stoppage and turnover. It starts up the ground – forwards and mids swarm, forcing rushed entries. Defenders win one-on-ones, set up behind the ball, and squeeze territory. It’s connected, high-IQ footy.

Meanwhile, the Bulldogs should be on high alert. Now sitting one game behind eighth-placed Gold Coast, they’ve conceded more points than any other team in the top nine, despite boasting the league’s highest-scoring attack. Their offensive firepower is clear, but it’s defence that wins premierships.

Right now, they’re losing over half of their one-on-one contests in defensive 50, a clear sign the ball is coming in too hot and too often. That’s not sustainable come finals, when games tighten up and scoring dries up. You can patch defensive issues in-season, but pressure always finds cracks.

The Bulldogs score heavily but need to tighten their defence.Credit: AFL Photos

Over the next few weeks you’ll see teams are also rehearsing their game modes – the tactical switches that control momentum. Think tempo shifts, kick-mark, boundary plays, skinny-side set-ups, or throwing a forward behind the ball late. It all gets tested now so that, hopefully, it will be second nature when it counts.

Chris Scott keeps evolving Geelong’s gears. One week they have 165 marks in a slow build-up game. The next, they play direct and daring. Their ability to adjust to the opposition makes them dangerous, but the round 18 loss to GWS showed they’re not quite humming yet. Expect more tinkering in the weeks ahead.

The best teams know these tactical shifts must come from their on-field leaders, not coaches. That’s what separates the serious contenders from the pack.

Dress rehearsals

Much has been made of Geelong’s soft run home, but is it really the advantage it’s made out to be? A soft draw doesn’t always prepare a team well for finals. If anything, it can rob them of the chance to become battle-hardened. The expectation is to win, and win well – and that kind of pressure can be deceptive. It might improve your ladder position, but it doesn’t forge the grit needed in September.

Is Geelong’s soft run home really an advantage?Credit: Getty Images

But for a team like GWS, simply trying to consolidate its position, a softer fixture is gold. Their win over Geelong in round 18 kept their season alive. Every winnable game builds momentum, and momentum builds belief.

Friday night’s clash between Brisbane and the Bulldogs was massive – and so was the finish to Collingwood’s loss to Fremantle. These were finals dress rehearsals: high-pressure, contested, and played with high stakes. Games like these expose flaws and test systems. A statement win sends shockwaves – and that’s exactly what Fremantle and Adelaide delivered, laying down the law against fellow top-eight contenders.

Gold Coast did it in round 18. They brought fierce, forward-half pressure that unsettled Collingwood – and it worked. That was no fluke. They played with the intensity needed in big moments. And it told the rest of the comp: “we’re not just here to compete”.

Still, they stumbled against Adelaide on Sunday – a reminder of just how hard it is to back up finals-like footy week in, week out.

Brisbane play four of the final top eight teams in the next five weeks. Their fixture is brutal – Suns, Pies, Freo and the Hawks. It will either forge them or fry them. The same goes for the Hawks, who have Adelaide, Collingwood and the Lions.

You can’t simulate finals intensity on the training track. You can’t smash your teammates three weeks out from finals. You need real-game exposure. If you don’t get it? The first final hits like a truck.

A constant fight

Every game for the top nine has the power to reshape both the top four and the eight. Even Sydney, sitting 10th, are applying pressure. And don’t be fooled – the ladder can hide as much as it reveals.

Take Gold Coast. They’ve played one fewer game, with a catch-up match still to come against the wounded Bombers. That gives them more flexibility than a glance at the ladder shows. For everyone else, it’s survival mode. No luxury of load management. No room for slip-ups.

The Suns have a game in hand on the rest of the contenders.Credit: AFL Photos

Teams either win the games they should, or stack pressure on themselves into the next week. The Bulldogs felt that after their loss to Adelaide, and now it’s compounded after falling to the Lions.

Hawthorn would’ve felt it, too, after slipping up against Freo. They responded with a strong win over Port.

Who knows, that final spot could be decided in round 24, with a cluster of mini elimination finals. At this stage of the season, every miss carries consequences. There’s no room left to stumble.

But there’s a cost to playing high-pressure footy for five straight weeks just to scrape in. What’s left in the tank when you finally get there?

That’s the risk. These teams aren’t just fighting to simply make the finals – they’re fighting to arrive in one piece. Whether their energy holds or burns out could decide their whole finals series.

Crunch time

This is the stretch that separates the good from the great.

Having been part of three premiership campaigns, I know this is when leaders matter most.

Margins shrink. Stakes rise. And while there’s still time to tweak and improve, the best teams are already asking: Where are the cracks, and how do we fix them? What are our strengths – and how do we harness them?

Yes, luck always plays a part. But ladder position matters. Finishing high saves energy in September – home finals, the finals draw you land – these things shape your path. And they can be the difference on the final day.

Whether you’re resting stars, testing tactics, or just hanging on, it all shapes what happens next because the ladder doesn’t always tell the truth. But the next six weeks will.

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