By Marc McGowan
We have busted out the crystal ball to make some early predictions for AFL clubs and players ahead of the fast-arriving new season.
That meant taking a stab at how the first five rounds might go, which is always fraught with danger, and assessing the pressure rating each team carries entering the 2024 campaign.
Every club has an element of pressure, but Collingwood have the least to prove after last year’s heroics, while on the other end of the scale, Hawthorn are in the early stages of a rebuild with little expected of them.
Adelaide star Jordan Dawson.Credit: AFL Photos
Adelaide
Club champion: Jordan Dawson
Breakout player: Josh Worrell
Point to prove: Sam Berry
Biggest early challenge: The dearth of key defenders, particularly with Nick Murray (ACL) sidelined until about mid-season. Jordon Butts has a huge role to play.
Pressure rating: 9
Record through round five: 3-2
The time has arrived for the Crows to make the top eight. Adelaide have not played finals since reaching the 2018 grand final and everything that happened after that. Matthew Nicks’ men led the AFL in scoring last year while winning 11 games and boasting a percentage better than all bar three rivals. They have a good blend of stars, experience and emerging youth, but the pressure will be on everyone if things go awry.
It is a big year for Brisbane Lion Cam Rayner.Credit: AFL Photos
Brisbane Lions
Club champion: Hugh McCluggage
Breakout player: Kai Lohmann
Point to prove: Cam Rayner
Biggest early challenge: Putting themselves in a strong ladder position to contend again while the likes of ACL victims Tom Doedee and Will Ashcroft recover.
Pressure rating: 7.5
Record through round five: 4-1
There is pressure on the Lions in the sense they played multiple finals in each of the past five years without winning a flag. However, making last year’s grand final – and going so close – was still a strong result and another step forward. Brisbane have one of the competition’s best playing lists without any obvious weakness, particularly since signing Doedee, who will make their defence even stronger once he is fit again.
Sam Walsh was a star for the Blues last season.Credit: Jonathan DiMaggio
Carlton
Club champion: Sam Walsh
Breakout player: Jesse Motlop
Point to prove: Harry McKay and Zac Williams
Biggest early challenge: Continuing the club’s momentum and avoiding another poor start, particularly with sky-high expectations and the potential of Jacob Weitering (calf) missing their season-opener.
Pressure rating: 9
Record through round five: 4-1
The Blues’ mid-season resurrection last year, which took them all the way to a preliminary final, removed a weight off coach Michael Voss’ shoulders and put some substance to their endless hype. There is still room for growth, and they would love a full season from injury-prone defender Williams, but they will have to handle extraordinary expectations from a supporter base that has not celebrated a premiership since 1995.
Magpies Nick Daicos and Ash Johnson last season.Credit: AFL Photos
Collingwood
Club champion: Nick Daicos
Breakout player: Finlay Macrae
Point to prove: Ash Johnson
Biggest early challenge: Avoiding the dreaded premiership hangover, which ex-Docker Lachie Schultz’s arrival should help.
Pressure rating: 6
Record through round five: 3-2
The reigning premiers have less pressure on them than any other club for obvious reason. Dan McStay’s ACL rupture was a blow, but Craig McRae will have fun with an attack including the likes of Norm Smith medallist Bobby Hill, Schultz, Jamie Elliott and Beau McCreery. The Daicos brothers, Jordan De Goey and Darcy Moore will pace the Pies again, but kids such as Macrae, Reef McInnes and Ed Allan will hope to be part of the ride.
Dylan Shiel will be a key figure for the Dons this year.Credit: Getty Images
Essendon
Club champion: Zach Merrett
Breakout player: Zach Reid
Point to prove: Dylan Shiel
Biggest early challenge: Dealing with crippling, but understandable, expectation after a horror fadeout last season – including losing their final two games by a combined 196 points – and the infamous drought without a finals win that dates to 2004.
Pressure rating: 9.5
Record through round five: 3-2
Arguably no club begins the season under the pump more. Second-year coach Brad Scott enjoyed a promising start to his tenure at Tullamarine, but it was a nightmarish finish – something the Bombers’ faithful have become all too familiar with. On paper, things should be different in 2024. Recruits Ben McKay, Jade Gresham and Todd Goldstein fortify a list brimming with promising young talent that also has a good mid-to-late 20s group.
Can champion Nat Fyfe return to his best?Credit: AFL Photos
Fremantle
Club champion: Andrew Brayshaw
Breakout player: Josh Treacy
Point to prove: Nat Fyfe
Biggest early challenge: Keeping the critics at bay, including those calling for coach Justin Longmuir to be sacked, amid a brutally tough opening five rounds.
Pressure rating: 8.5
Record through round five: 1-4
The 2023 season was not a complete wipeout, given Caleb Serong’s continued emergence, Luke Jackson’s stellar first year in purple, and Jye Amiss cementing himself as the club’s spearhead. However, winning only five of 12 matches at home last year sealed their fate in a tight competition – and that record needs to improve if Longmuir’s side is to return to the finals. The fixture gods did the Dockers few favours early in the campaign.
Geelong star Jeremy Cameron will be vital as the Cats look to rebound.Credit: AFL Photos
Geelong
Club champion: Jeremy Cameron
Breakout player: Jhye Clark
Point to prove: Brandan Parfitt
Biggest early challenge: Finding a way to maximise whatever the veterans have left to be a finals contender again, while keeping one eye on the future.
Pressure rating: 8
Record through round five: 3-2
The Cats are one of the most successful clubs this century, including winning a flag only two years ago, but they are at a fascinating juncture. They played catch-up from the get-go last year after dropping their first three games. There were genuine injury excuses, but an ageing list without as many top prospects as others is cause for pause. Some kids and mid-tier players will need to rise to the occasion to help the older stars get the job done.
Ever-consistent Suns gun Touk Miller.Credit: AFL Photos
Gold Coast
Club champion: Touk Miller
Breakout player: Joel Jeffrey
Point to prove: Alex Sexton
Biggest early challenge: There are no more excuses. The Suns have all the talent in the world, an elite batch of draftees from last year and a triple premiership coach in charge, so a slow start would be problematic.
Pressure rating: 9
Record through round five: 4-1
The Damien Hardwick hype train is at full steam, and both league and Suns bosses would love to see the former Richmond coach finally lead the fledgling club to finals. There will undoubtedly be some Tiger-isms instilled in Gold Coast’s players, but ultimately, they are the ones who will have to deliver. From Ben King to Miller, Noah Anderson, Matt Rowell and Jack Lukosius, the talent is there. Now the results finally need to follow.
Fast-rising Giant Tom Green.Credit: AFL Photos
GWS
Club champion: Tom Green
Breakout player: Ryan Angwin
Point to prove: Nick Haynes
Biggest early challenge: Capitalising on a friendly draw that has the potential to springboard their premiership assault. The narrative around the Giants could hardly be starker from 12 months ago.
Pressure rating: 7
Record through round five: 4-1
There was a suspicion across the league that Adam Kingsley was a coaching maestro, and the proof was in the pudding last year. GWS were an irresistible force once they adapted to how Kingsley wanted them to play, and there are genuine flag hopes in 2024. Toby Greene and Jesse Hogan unlock the Giants’ attack, but they terrorise opposition teams with their pressure, have a strong midfield, and a back line led by All-Australian Sam Taylor.
Jai Newcombe is among the best of the Hawks’ next generation of talent.Credit: AFL Photos
Hawthorn
Club champion: Jai Newcombe
Breakout player: Cam Mackenzie
Point to prove: Finn Maginness
Biggest early challenge: The potential of not having reigning Peter Crimmins medallist Will Day available for an extended period with a foot stress fracture.
Pressure rating: 6.5
Record through round five: 0-5
The Hawks have at least another season before the demand for results will come. They outperformed expectations last year under Sam Mitchell, and there is particular excitement about a young midfield group that thrived without Tom Mitchell and Jaeger O’Meara. That said, Hawthorn have a challenging start to the season – some games are certainly winnable – and judging progress might not be as simple as looking at the ladder.
Melbourne star Clayton Oliver.Credit: Getty Images
Melbourne
Club champion: Christian Petracca
Breakout player: Bailey Laurie
Point to prove: Clayton Oliver
Biggest early challenge: Blocking the constant noise, from Oliver’s situation to Joel Smith’s provisional drug ban, coach Simon Goodwin – pick your topic – and the back-to-back straight-sets finals exits.
Pressure rating: 9.5
Record through round five*: 3-3
The 2021 premiership was supposed to be the start of a Demons dynasty, but they failed to win a single final across the past two seasons as off-field issues and familiar ball movement and forward woes hurt them. Melbourne were still among the league’s best in that time, and no one would be surprised if they turned it on again in 2024. It would be a waste if this talent-laden group cannot win another flag – but the clock is ticking.
Luke Davies-Uniacke is a prolific ball winner.Credit: AFL Photos
North Melbourne
Club champion: Luke Davies-Uniacke
Breakout player: Colby McKercher
Point to prove: Callum Coleman-Jones
Biggest early challenge: Stopping the league’s best key forwards after Ben McKay’s departure, and with Griffin Logue (ACL) still recovering. Charlie Comben, Aidan Corr, Kallan Dawson and Toby Pink are the main options.
Pressure rating: 8.5
Record through round five: 0-5
There is little reason to believe the Roos will get out of the bottom two this year, but they added two more blue-chip kids – McKercher and Zane Duursma – and bolstered their depth in the trade period. There will be interest in Brayden George, too, after a pre-draft knee injury sunk his debut season. However, there are still too many holes in the line-up, particularly down back, and more time is required before they return to relevance.
Port Adelaide gun Connor Rozee.Credit: AFL Photos
Port Adelaide
Club champion: Connor Rozee
Breakout player: Josh Sinn
Point to prove: Mitch Georgiades
Biggest early challenge: Much like the Giants – the team that ended their 2023 season – they need to make the most of an inviting draw to start this year. If not, the pressure will rise.
Pressure rating: 8.5
Record through round five: 5-0
Ken Hinkley scored a new two-year deal after the Power put together an excellent home and away season, only for them to suffer a disappointing straight-sets finals exit. Zak Butters and Connor Rozee are the team’s biggest stars, but they have guns on every line, from Todd Marshall up front to Aliir Aliir down back, while Jason Horne-Francis is one of the best young on-ballers in the AFL. Winning a final is a bare-minimum expectation.
Shai Bolton will be important to the Tigers’ fortunes.Credit: AFL Photos
Richmond
Club champion: Shai Bolton
Breakout player: Josh Gibcus
Point to prove: Jacob Koschitzke
Biggest early challenge: Adjusting to new coach Adem Yze’s game plan and finding the right structure up forward after Jack Riewoldt’s retirement.
Pressure rating: 7.5
Record through round five*: 1-5
There are many questions as the Yze era begins, and we will have to wait for the answers. Tom Lynch is set to carry a heavy load in attack off multiple foot surgeries, but swingman Noah Balta will offer support as he goes forward again. Dustin Martin will be vitally important as usual, particularly with Dion Prestia sustaining his latest soft-tissue setback in the pre-season. There are no gimme games early in the year for Richmond.
Saint Mattaes Phillipou is a star on the rise.Credit: Getty Images
St Kilda
Club champion: Jack Sinclair
Breakout player: Mattaes Phillipou
Point to prove: Hunter Clark
Biggest early challenge: We will learn plenty about the 2024 Saints in 50–50 battles with Geelong and Essendon in the opening three rounds. Two losses could point to a tough campaign.
Pressure rating: 8
Record through round five: 1-4
Compelling cases can be made for and against the Saints making September again, and they are one of the tougher teams to read entering the season. Ross Lyon has a strong track record and that counts for plenty. Max King, Sinclair, Callum Wilkie, Rowan Marshall and Jack Steele, plus young guns Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera and Phillipou, also offer optimism. But can Lyon get more out of the likes of Clark, Zak Jones and Tim Membrey?
Young Swans midfielder Errol Gulden had an eye-catching 2023.Credit: Getty Images
Sydney
Club champion: Errol Gulden
Breakout player: Matt Roberts
Point to prove: Brodie Grundy
Biggest early challenge: The Swans rallied from a tardy 3-6 start to reach an elimination final in 2023, after losing a lopsided grand final two years ago – but John Longmire will be desperate to avoid that fate again.
Pressure rating: 7.5
Record through round five: 4-1
This Swans list has all the makings of a flag contender, from Gulden, Isaac Heeney, Callum Mills, Tom Papley, Luke Parker, Nick Blakey and Chad Warner to experienced recruits Grundy and Taylor Adams. There is also lots to like about youngsters Logan McDonald, Braeden Campbell, Joel Amartey, Angus Sheldrick and Roberts. Memories of the grand final thrashing should be fading, and Sydney are poised to do big things.
West Coast forward Oscar Allen.Credit: AFL Photos
West Coast
Club champion: Oscar Allen
Breakout player: Harley Reid
Point to prove: Elliot Yeo
Biggest early challenge: Another tough season looms, but figuring out their exact direction and what that means for some of their older players will be crucial.
Pressure rating: 8
Record through round five: 0-5
Adam Simpson survived as coach when many doubted he would, but he has the challenge of his life ahead. Club legends Shannon Hurn, Nic Naitanui and Luke Shuey retired, leaving Jeremy McGovern, Andrew Gaff, Jamie Cripps, Yeo, and Jack Darling as the experienced heads. They are unlikely to ever add to their finals games tally, but will help mentor the next wave of Eagles, including No.1 pick Reid, Reuben Ginbey and Elijah Hewett.
Top Dog Marcus Bontempelli.Credit: Getty Images
Western Bulldogs
Club champion: Marcus Bontempelli
Breakout player: Sam Darcy
Point to prove: Jack Macrae
Biggest early challenge: Setting the tone for an improved season, including putting players – from Macrae to Caleb Daniel and Jason Johannisen – in their best positions to maximise their production.
Pressure rating: 9
Record through round five: 3-2
Luke Beveridge’s legacy was sealed once he led the Bulldogs to the 2016 premiership, and reinforced with the 2021 grand final appearance, but they underachieved the past two seasons. That period makes it hard to predict which version will turn up this year. Bontempelli is one of the competition’s best, and there are several other top-liners, as well as a bevy of promising key-position players. But it counts for little if they fail to perform again.
*Playing in the opening round.
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