By Peter Ryan and Jon Pierik
If the past few rounds have felt a touch flat, there might be a good reason, which we explore in our key takeouts from round 17.
Where have all the nail-biters gone?
After several seasons of cliffhangers every week, there have been just 18 matches (including a draw) decided this season by six points or fewer and not one of them since June 14 when Fremantle beat North Melbourne by a goal in round 15.
Close finish: Craig McRae has been able to relax a bit more this year.Credit: AFL Photos
That’s 25 consecutive games without such a cliffhanger. It’s the first time we have gone that many matches without a game being decided by six points or fewer since rounds 8-10 in 2022.
For pedants, we know the Dockers stretched the margin of their round 16 win over St Kilda to 12 points with a goal after the siren. In comparison to previous years’ R-rated thrillers, however, it was PG.
By comparison there were 31 matches (including draws) decided by a margin of six points or fewer up to round 18 in 2024.
Even the close-finish fanatics Collingwood have only been in three matches with margins six points or fewer this season after having nine thrillers in 2024, seven in 2023 and nine in 2022.
Those 2022-24 seasons were crazy, but the two-tier nature of the competition in 2025 was illustrated perfectly when the bottom nine teams met the top nine teams in round 17.
Sydney, last year’s grand finalists at home to Fremantle and returning to form, were the only bottom half team to beat a top-half opponent in a round which went to script.
Only one Thursday night match has been decided by a goal or less too, with the drama close finishes provide the most necessary element for creating discussion, intrigue and moments to celebrate hard.
With 14 wins needed to qualify for finals there should be plenty of desperate finishes in the final seven rounds. We need them. The winter hibernation has gone on too long. - Peter Ryan
Do scores win premierships? History says defences do
Thursday night, Marvel Stadium
Western Bulldogs defeated North Melbourne by 49 points
We said last week that it was not outlandish to think the Bulldogs could still make the top four, considering they have one of the easiest runs home, according to Champion Data.
They made the most of a banged-up North Melbourne on Thursday night, and also face Essendon, Melbourne and West Coast in the run home – an excellent run for this time of the year.
But what we really have been drawn to are the number of scoring options Luke Beveridge has at his disposal in the league’s highest scoring team, and how the complexion of their forward line changes when Aaron Naughton gets going.
Back in business: Aaron Naughton was in excellent touch against the Kangaroos.Credit: AFL Photos
Naughton is something of a lightning rod for criticism by Bulldogs fans. Held goalless by Hawthorn and St Kilda last month, there were public questions again, including by prominent commentator David King, around whether he would be better suited to playing in defence, a switch Beveridge has long eschewed. But Naughton’s five goals against the Kangaroos, four of which came in the second term when fellow tall Sam Darcy was well held by the emerging Will Dawson, highlighted why he is needed up forward. Naughton also had five marks for the term, and was the reason why the Bulldogs led at the main break.
He appears a far more dangerous weapon when Darcy is by his side. Since the latter’s return in round 14, Naughton has booted 12.5, leaving him with 31 for the season (Darcy has 29 for the season).
Naughton was instrumental in the Bulldogs scoring 100 or more points for the tenth time this season, including in their past four games. Their efficiency, as we mentioned against the Swans last week, is superb. From 66 inside- 50s against the Kangaroos, they had 34 scoring shots.
And what should be particularly frightening for opponents is that, outside Darcy and Naughton, they have 10 other players with double-figure goals, including Rhylee West (24) and former Blue Matt Kennedy (19). That’s the recipe of a team that could inflict some serious damage come September.
The only concern for the Bulldogs is their defensive profile is not where it was by the end of last season. They have conceded more points than any top eight team after 16 matches and gave away 78 points in the first three quarters against North Melbourne before tightening up. Work is to be done in that area. – Jon Pierik
Forget ‘eyes in’ motto, Vossy. Bring fresh eyes only
Friday night, MCG
Collingwood defeated Carlton by 56 points
After Port Adelaide’s loss to the Brisbane Lions on Saturday night, Ken Hinkley – who is handing over the coaching reins to Josh Carr at season’s end – was positive about the future and said he wanted to encourage his players to enjoy their football and lead them in a way that fosters that.
Carlton coach Michael Voss might feel as though he is in a different position to his former mentor, but his strong suit is, and always has been, his leadership.
Should Patrick Cripps (left) hand over the captaincy to Jacob Weitering at season’s end?Credit: AFL Photos
He needs to open the floor to understand what has stopped his team from playing four quarters of combative football and work with his most in-tune players to ensure he facilitates an environment they want to enter for the next seven weeks.
The team looked tired and broken from playing a contested brand over many years, and they have stopped believing it can work. Their ball movement was awful against the Magpies. Their effort in the second and third quarters was way below par.
Voss’ greatest assets right now are a senior core of Jacob Weitering, Nic Newman, George Hewett and Sam Walsh who can give an unvarnished opinion on what is needed on the field.
Skipper Patrick Cripps is obviously a key, but he seems so wounded he might be better off taking direction for once rather than being called on to give it, adopting a subservient leadership approach for the remainder of the season and just focusing on keeping the group connected.
Assuming he remains, as he should, the warrior Cripps should consider handing over the captaincy at season’s end to Weitering. Scott Pendlebury did so with grace at the end of 2022 and has continued to excel since that point.
And Voss needs to take every opportunity he can to play younger players who will be there next season, and try other, more senior players in different roles with Zac Williams move to the middle a good start.
Ashton Moir showed signs of his talent against Collingwood and Matt Carroll’s run along the Shane Warne Stand wing in the third quarter was a glimpse into his ability. Harry O’Farrell was exposed, but his lack of strength can be rectified over time, and the VFL team won again with both Camporeale boys impressing.
The players can’t do what Voss wants them to do right now after 82 matches of brutal football. The coaches need to find each player’s strength and let them go after it for the final seven rounds regardless of results.
That doesn’t mean ignoring competitiveness. That will be judged, but the players need to be fresh to bring their competitive best for four quarters. Right now, they have a bad case of the mid-winter Blues. - Peter Ryan
More antagonistic Suns are starting to shine
Saturday afternoon, Marvel Stadium
Gold Coast beat Essendon by 41 points
Gold Coast would have lost this match to Essendon last season. They would have definitely lost it the year before. Challenging them for three quarters away from home would have been enough for them to wilt.
But with more mature stars Noah Anderson and Matt Rowell in the middle and two players inside 50 – one reliable in Touk Miller, the other a future star in Bailey Humphrey – the Suns kicked 6.3 (39) to 0.1 (1) in the final quarter. The 38-point gap was the biggest final quarter margin in their favour in the club’s history.
Matt Rowell put in a typically hard-nosed display against the Bombers.Credit: AFL Photos
Even better, they are not altering their ways at centre bounces because of a knee-jerk AFL ruling which threatens to suspend Matt Rowell if he inadvertently touches an umpire. It’s healthy to hear as the Suns have been the “how high do we need to jump?” club in relation to the AFL for too long.
Of course the AFL’s financial support is necessary, but the Suns need to adopt a public position of club-first in all their public utterances, and Hardwick’s criticism of the new ruling and Rowell’s steadfast refusal to change the way he sets up at a centre bounce despite the idle threat of a suspension if he touches an umpire in play is a good sign the club is maturing.
Maybe it is the recession the Saints had to have
Saturday night, Marvel Stadium
Hawthorn defeated St Kilda by 20 points
Saints coach Ross Lyon employed then-treasurer Paul Keating’s famous quote in 1990 to convey to the club’s supporters a message that the club’s decision to temporarily go back to go forwards would eventually pay dividends.
That strategy is appropriate and consistent with Lyon’s utterances since he took over from Brett Ratten, who was in fact (despite president Andrew Bassat’s words at the time Ratten was sacked) doing a very reasonable job with the list he had.
What Bassat also said at that time, though, was that the club needed to “have a stronger crack at getting the foundations right”.
That’s why the Saints’ decision to end their alignment with Sandringham to have their own standalone team is a significant part of their restructuring as they look to get the best out of what is now a promising crop of youngsters.
Star young Saint Alix Tauru will excite fans for a decade.Credit: Getty Images
What is at stake was obvious on Saturday night. Alix Tauru’s first-quarter tackle and third-quarter mark were brilliant enough for Saints supporters to thank, rather than boo, departed free agent Josh Battle. Tauru was the player they chose using the compensation pick received for losing Battle.
They have obvious talents in Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera and Marcus Windhager, who they must re-sign, and Mitch Owens, but there are also players who could yet be excellent, consistent AFL players with the right development program. Max Hall, a rookie pick, was excellent, while Darcy Wilson and Liam Henry have shown their talent but need intensive work to become consistent AFL performers.
Tobie Travaglia is also promising, and when they get Max King and Mattaes Phillipou back fit and firing they will match it with Hawthorn soon enough, particularly if Tom De Koning, even at a price beyond what ruckman are worth, joins them.
But, amid all that, they should pause, too, and pay more credence in public forums to the excellent job their skipper Jack Steele has done to keep things together while such change was occurring. He laid 15 tackles against Hawthorn and his leadership role has been underrated. - Peter Ryan
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