The seats to watch in WA this federal election

Labor has grown increasingly confident of its electoral chances in Western Australia, which helped deliver it a majority government in the 2022 election.

While it’s unlikely Labor will retain the entire 7 per cent statewide swing it received in the post-COVID poll, internally the party is confident it can defend the four seats it won at that election, which saw the entire Perth metro area turn red, bar Andrew Hastie’s Canning in the south.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen, James Brickwood

Despite this, with the inclusion of new well-resourced teal independents and the Liberal party throwing the kitchen sink at seats like Curtin, Tangney, Pearce and Bullwinkel, we are set for a series of epic political showdowns.

Moore: 0.9 per cent (Liberal)

Strongest candidates: Ian Goodenough (Liberal-turned independent incumbent), Vince Connelly (Liberal), Tom French (Labor), Nathan Barton (independent)

Meta ad spend: Ian Goodenough (90 days: $1.4k, 7 days: $0), Vince Connelly (90 days: $17.7k, 7 days: $4.4k), Tom French (90 days: $17.2k, 7 days: $1.5k), Nathan Barton (90 days: $8.8k, 7 days: $1.3k).

This northern suburbs seat stretches from Currambine to Karrinyup. Incumbent Ian Goodenough decided to stand as an independent after a bruising preselection battle with Liberal candidate Vince Connelly. Goodenough, who was linked to the Christian right of the WA Liberals, has held the seat since 2013.

There has been no love lost between Goodenough and the Liberals, and party insiders are worried about where his preferences will go, given he isn’t instructing his supporters who to vote for after him.

Labor’s Tom French came achingly close to knocking Goodenough off in 2022, making Moore the most marginal seat in the state. Climate 200-backed independent and psychologist Nathan Barton could also jumble preferences in this must-win seat for the Liberals.

Canning: 1.2 per cent (Liberal)

Strongest candidates: Andrew Hastie (Liberal incumbent), Jarrad Goold (Labor)

Meta ad spend: Andrew Hastie (90 days: $36.9k, 7 days: $13.7k), Jarrad Goold (90 days: $6.7k, 7 days: $2.6k).

Former SAS soldier Andrew Hastie has held this southern metro and Peel seat since the 2015 byelection triggered by the death of former member Don Randall.

Hastie held the seat by 11.6 per cent at the 2019 election, but that margin was decimated in 2022 when it went back to Labor by 8 per cent to 2.4 per cent.

A redistribution of the seat, which takes in more of the safe Labor territory in Brand, saw his margin drop to one of the lowest in the state.

Labor’s Jarrad Goold has not been mounting a large campaign, but the margin is thin enough that Hastie, who is also shadow defence minister, has been forced to focus on local issues this campaign.

Hastie copped flak for being missing during major defence policy debates during the campaign, but was front and centre when opposition leader Peter Dutton joined him in Perth late last month to announce a promise to lift defence spending to 3 per cent of GDP.

Curtin: 1.3 per cent (independent)

Strongest candidates: Kate Chaney (independent incumbent), Tom White (Liberal)

Meta ad spend: Kate Chaney (90 days: $250.1k, 7 days: $15.1k), Tom White (90 days: $45.5k, 7 days: $5.9k).

Of all the battleground seats in WA, Curtin is holding the most attention, encompassing the wealthy western suburbs where climate change has raged as a major issue for several years.

Climate 200-backed Kate Chaney is attempting to create history again to defend her 2022 victory, while the Liberals have pulled out all the stops by selecting former Uber executive Tom White to take her on.

Both candidates have likely spent north of $1 million on their campaigns. Chaney’s changing positions on issues like live sheep export and the North West Shelf extension have led to extreme media focus, which prompted her to accuse Seven West Media of a smear campaign.

White quit his job as chief executive of Uber in South Korea to run for Curtin. He told WAtoday earlier this week he had “no plan B”.

Tangney: 2.8 per cent (Labor)

Strongest candidates: Sam Lim (Labor incumbent), Howard Ong (Liberal)

Meta ad spend: Sam Lim (90 days: $17.1k, 7 days: $2.4k), Howard Ong (90 days: $41.4k, 7 days: $6.8k).

Tangney is the wealthiest seat south of the river and is firmly in the sights of the Liberals. Malay national, former dolphin trainer, and 2020 police officer of the year Sam Lim caused a huge upset when he ousted Scott Morrison lieutenant Ben Morton.

Internally, both sides of politics believe they can win. As one Liberal strategist put it, “we must have really different polling”.

The former blue-ribbon seat is vital for the Liberals’ efforts to get back into government or at least put it in striking distance at the next election.

Bullwinkel: 3.3 per cent (notionally Labor)

Strongest candidates: Matt Moran (Liberal), Mia Davies (Nationals), Trish Cook (Labor)

Meta ad spend: Matt Moran (90 days: $34.6k, 7 days: $8k), Mia Davies (90 days: $24.3k, 7 days: $8k), Trish Cook (90 days: $18.5k, 7 days: $2.7k).

Bullwinkel is the nation’s newest seat and takes WA’s number of MPs in the lower house to 16. Named after WWII nurse and POW Vivian Bullwinkel, it is a Frankenstein stitch-up of several seats and sites across the Perth Hills and central Wheatbelt.

The Liberals, Nationals and Labor all fancy they have a shot in the notionally Labor seat. The Nationals are putting up a fight with former state Nationals leader and opposition leader Mia Davies, who is expected to poll well in the Wheatbelt areas.

She runs against former journalist and army veteran Matt Moran who is tipped to win the seat thanks to a resurgence in the Hills seats of support for the Liberals, which saw state Liberal Adam Hort narrowly elected in Kalamunda at the state campaign.

Labor insiders are confident of their chances with nurse and Mundaring councillor Trish Cook, who has been alongside Prime Minister Anthony Albanese during virtually every visit he’s made during the campaign.

Bullwinkel is considered one of the metro/regional seats where the Keep the Sheep campaign will be most effective, given its links to agricultural areas.

Forrest: 4.2 per cent (Liberal)

Strongest candidates: Ben Small (Liberal), Sue Chapman (independent)

Meta ad spend: Ben Small (90 days: $15.5k, 7 days: $3.8k), Sue Chapman (90 days: $95.5k, 7 days: $13.9k).

WAtoday considers Forrest the biggest smoky of the election in WA. Ben Small is replacing retiring Liberal icon Nola Marino and in any normal election he would be a shoo-in to take the South West seat.

But the appearance of a well-resourced Climate 200-backed independent, in surgeon Sue Chapman, has shaken up the race.

Small’s camp is silently confident it can hold the place, but Chapman is throwing the kitchen sink at wresting it from Liberal control.

Pearce: 8.8 per cent (Labor)

Strongest candidates: Tracey Roberts (Labor incumbent), Jan Norberger (Liberal)

Meta ad spend: Tracey Roberts (90 days: $14.7k, 7 days: $2.3k), Jan Norberger (90 days: $53k, 7 days: $10k).

Pearce covers the far northern reaches of the Perth metro area from Two Rocks to Gnangara. It was one of four metro seats to fall to Labor in 2022 thanks in part to the profile of Tracey Roberts, the former Mayor of Wanneroo.

The Liberals are hopeful of an upset in this safe Labor seat thanks to the huge primary swings away from Labor in the three state seats that cover the electorate.

These swings range from 20-30 per cent and around 16 per cent on a two-party basis, which would mean an easy win for former Joondalup MP Jan Norberger.

Fremantle: 16.9 per cent (Labor)

Strongest candidates: Josh Wilson (Labor incumbent), Kate Hulett (independent), Amy Warne (Green)

Meta ad spend: Josh Wilson (90 days: $15k, 7 days: $6k), Kate Hulett (90 days: $65.4k, 7 days: $29.6k), Amy Warne (90 days: $342, 7 days: $172).

Fremantle is Labor’s second-strongest seat but the presence of Climate 200-backed independent Kate Hulett, fresh from nearly ousting sitting state Fremantle MP Simone McGurk, has made it one to watch.

Hulett has been preferenced third on the Liberals and Greens how-to-vote cards, meaning if Wilson’s primary vote takes a battering, she could stage an upset.

Pollsters think this is unlikely, however, given Hulett’s success at the state election came from a more concentrated and progressive area of Fremantle, while the federal electorate includes the suburban reaches of the City of Cockburn.

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