What the major parties need to fix before next November

One year out from the Victorian state election, both major parties are struggling to win the support of voters.

From cost-of-living strains, concerns about crime and a steady erosion of trust in public institutions, Labor enters the countdown with major projects to sell. But its incumbency also leaves it susceptible to an “it’s time” campaign.

For the Liberals, the party’s revolving leadership has created a reputation of instability and uncertainty about its vision for the future of the state.

Jess Wilson and Jacinta Allan.Credit: Stephen Kiprillis

To win, these are the five issues each party must address before Victorians vote.

LABOR

Deliver progress on housing

It has been more than two years since Labor unveiled its Housing Statement promising 800,000 new homes over a decade. Big on ambition and light on detail, Premier Jacinta Allan has thrown her weight behind the policy despite community backlash. Already, housing and property groups doubt whether the target is achievable under current planning settings. For a party that prides itself on equality, Labor’s social housing record has also been a glaring weakness.

Repair its megaproject reputation

The government’s defining feature for the past decade has been its “Big Build” agenda. The opening of the Metro Tunnel is proof Labor can deliver city-shaping projects, but cost pressures, shifting timelines and the sidelining of other infrastructure priorities have eroded public confidence. Ahead of election day, Labor needs to radically improve transparency on key projects such as the Suburban Rail Loop and Airport Rail Link. Locking in contracts, finalising station designs and publishing a realistic timeline could help Labor hold onto key seats in the outer north-west.

Prove crime reforms are reducing offending

Victoria recorded 483,583 criminal incidents in the 12 months to June 2025 – an 18.3 per cent increase and the highest number on record – with youth violence, aggravated burglaries and carjackings driving the spike. Labor has responded with tougher bail, sentencing and youth justice measures, but tougher laws rarely produce immediate results. Instead, they will likely need to deliver a response that also includes policing, courts, prevention programs and social supports to really shift the dial.

Learn how to campaign against Jess Wilson

Labor successfully exploited the chaos and disunity under former opposition leaders Matthew Guy, Michael O’Brien and John Pesutto. But Jess Wilson presents a more complicated picture. She is younger and does not fit the traditional leadership mould. Campaigning against a woman also narrows their attack lines: anything that sounds personal or patronising could easily misfire. Labor will need to successfully draw a contrast on experience and economic management rather than character.

Tackle debt

Victoria’s debt profile remains one of Labor’s greatest challenges. Net debt is expected to reach $194 billion by the end of the decade. To make matters worse, the Auditor-General says the government recorded an operating loss of $2.6 billion in the past financial year – $400 million worse than it budgeted for. For years, the Liberals have struggled to turn debt into a political pressure point, but Labor will need a more convincing economic narrative than it has offered to date. That means explaining which projects will proceed and how it will contain spending.

Jess Wilson secured the Liberal Party leadership in November.Credit: Simon Schluter

THE LIBERALS

Unity and discipline

The Liberal Party’s most enduring problem is not policy, but itself. Victorians have been introduced to five different opposition leaders in five years, and the churn has left the impression of a party more interested in fighting itself than Labor. Though Wilson’s leadership has, for now, quieted the factional infighting, the calm is unlikely to last. Looming preselection battles and courtroom sagas risk exposing internal rifts, and the party’s performance at the upcoming South Australia election could fuel further instability for MPs fretting about their seats. Managing egos, setting clear expectations and lifting underperforming shadow ministers will test Wilson, but if the party can’t show stability, voters will not bother listening to its pitch.

A credible economic plan

Rising debt offers the Liberals an obvious attack line, but voters have not been persuaded so far, and Labor’s record of delivering big projects will only make this argument harder to land. To shift the conversation, the Liberals need to connect debt to everyday consequences: higher taxes, reduced services or slower infrastructure delivery. Labor is also keen to frame Wilson as inexperienced and inclined to cut, so to be credible the Liberals will need a clear alternative plan that can be explained to families in key outer suburbs and that reduces spending without cutting into frontline services.

Housing

The Liberals cannot win if they pitch themselves as anti-development. Voters under 40 – already drifting away from the party – want more houses near jobs and transport. The Liberals need to present a housing plan that acknowledges this and offers a balanced, practical alternative to Labor. Opposing everything may win applause in Brighton, but it costs votes elsewhere. It’s a difficult balance for the Liberals to navigate, but will be key to their success.

Define and sell Jess Wilson

Wilson represents a generational reset, but the party has not yet explained why it replaced Battin – a former police officer from the suburbs – with a 35-year-old whose career has largely been inside political offices. Labor has moved quickly to frame the first term MP as inexperienced, so the Liberals must carve out a counter narrative. Wilson also needs to demonstrate she understands outer-suburban pressures and can speak credibly to communities beyond Kew.

Professionalise the party

By the time the election rolls around, the Liberals will have governed for only four of the past 25 years. So much time in the political wilderness has impacted the party’s organisational wing.

Campaigns have been under-resourced and poorly targeted, teal independents threaten inner-city seats and growth corridors remain stubbornly out of reach. A churn of state directors, poor candidate vetting and legal disputes have also done damage. Modern campaigns are won through good data, discipline and targeted messaging. Unless the Liberals overhaul the party machinery, they will continue to fall short even when momentum is on their side.

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