Voters ‘lukewarm’ on Allan’s housing density push but support making it easier to subdivide land

Voters feel “lukewarm” about the Victorian government’s push for higher-density housing, but a majority support making it easier for landowners to subdivide their land and build townhouses, new data shows.

The findings are contained in the latest survey by Resolve Political Monitor, conducted exclusively for The Age, which also placed Opposition Leader John Pesutto ahead of Premier Jacinta Allan as the preferred premier for the first time.

Premier Jacinta Allan has announced policies aimed at approving affordability through increased supply, including boosting supply in 50 new activity centres in existing suburbs.Credit: Eddie Jim

While 57 per cent of those surveyed backed changes that would make it easier to subdivide land, paving the way for more townhouses, voters were less convinced by Allan’s policy to build higher-density housing in 50 designated “activity zones” – urban centres near train and tram stations.

The density policy so far has the support of just 42 per cent of Victorians – 37 per cent opposed it, and the remaining 21 per cent are undecided. Labor voters are the most supportive of the plan, at 56 per cent, while 50 per cent of Coalition voters are against and 20 per cent are undecided.

The opposition remains sceptical of the density push and has criticised the government over a lack of consultation in its planning reforms.

While overall, more voters favoured the policy than opposed it, Resolve director Jim Reed described support for higher-density housing near stations as “lukewarm”.

But he pointed to NSW as a jurisdiction where voters had become increasingly attracted to higher-density housing once “they are reassured on what this looks like and are given the opportunity to have their say”.

In December 2023, the NSW Labor government preemptively published a list of areas it would target for higher-density housing as part of a broader plan to build 45,000 new homes by 2027. As part of the policy, the NSW government also amended planning controls in 400-metre zones near 31 train stations across Sydney, the Hunter and Illawarra.

Three months after the policy was announced, the increased density push won support of 43 per cent of NSW voters. Since then, support has continued to rise: 50 per cent of voters backed the Minns government’s signature density reforms in June.

With 49 per cent of “uncommitted voters” backing the density drive, Reed said it would be up to the Allan government to continue to sell its policies to the electorate and reassure voters that they would work.

“The Victorian government have recognised an important issue and are attempting to solve it with a package of measures, and that’s to their credit. The question remains about whether the electorate has enough trust left in them to let it roll out.”

As part of Allan’s tenure-defining housing push, the state government also flagged overhauling the planning system to encourage more two-lot subdivisions and the construction of townhouses.

Victorians were once allowed to subdivide their land without a building permit, but this was banned by the Kennett government in 1993.

The government will consider abolishing permits for subdivisions, or introduce permit exemptions based on meeting certain criteria. It may also decide to simply make decisions on subdivisions faster, within 10 days, down from 60 days or longer at the moment.

The government will consult industry groups but plans to implement the subdivision changes in April 2025.

According to the survey findings, 57 per cent of the respondents backed changes that would once again make it easier to split blocks of land, paving the way for more townhouses in existing suburbs.

Overall, Labor voters (69 per cent) were most supportive of the subdivision plan, which will be conditional on a review that will advise the government on the best way to restore subdivision rights into planning laws.

There was a high level of support for the plan from uncommitted voters (64 per cent) compared with committed voters.

Reed suggested that Victorians favoured streamlining subdivisions because it benefited the landholder and was at their discretion.

“By definition, [the policy] turns NIMBYs into YIMBYs, and hopefully increases supply without necessarily increasing building heights,” he said.

YIMBY Melbourne leader Jonathan O’Brien said overall the results showed Victorians were open to supporting Labor’s housing overhaul and also pointed to Sydney as an example where voters had shown a willingness to embrace density changes.

Jonathan O’Brien, from the YIMBY group (Yes In My Back Yard), says Victoria needs more homes where people want to live.Credit: Penny Stephens

“Victorians know we need more homes – that’s why there is such broad support for the policies that will get us there,” he said.

He said up-zoning around train stations “makes sense” and would give Victorians more options for where and how they wanted to live.

“This policy is the fundamental building block for a walkable, sustainable, liveable city for all.”

The latest survey results, which coincided with the Allan government’s housing blitz, also shows a modest lift in Labor’s primary vote, although the Coalition maintains a 10-point lead in primary votes.

While The Age does not publish a two-party preferred result, Reed said the latest results put the Coalition narrowly ahead of the government on the measure.

On Wednesday, Allan dismissed questions about the RPM results, insisting she was instead focused on everyday Victorians.

“I’m focused on people. I’m focused on the Victorian community, and I’m particularly focused on those people in the Victorian community, younger Victorians who can’t find a home right now, who need the government focused on them.”

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