Victoria’s next premier hasn’t been thrown a hospital pass, but it won’t be easy

Daniel Andrews’ successor – odds are it will be Jacinta Allan after tomorrow’s party room vote – will inherit a huge political margin and will face an opposition that is ideologically riven and struggling against the demographic tide.

As such, Andrews’ decision to resign less than a year after the 2022 election is no hospital pass, unlike the transitions from John Cain to Joan Kirner in 1990 and from Steve Bracks to John Brumby in 2007.

The premier is likely to be replaced by his deputy, Jacinta Allan.Credit: Luis Ascui

Daniel Andrews had enormous strengths as premier. He was energetic, decisive, politically brave, tough and a brilliant political tactician who transformed the state.

It could also be argued he adopted the political philosophy practiced by Frank Underwood, the sociopathic master of political gamesmanship from the series House of Cards. Underwood called it “ruthless pragmatism”.

As opposition leader he was dismissed by detractors as “the guy who looks like an accountant and hunches”. How wrong people were.

No doubt, Andrews got a hell of a lot done. He built rail tunnels, roads and eliminated dozens of level crossings. He introduced bold social policy reforms. He helped steer the state through a once in a century pandemic and managed fires and floods. He won three elections, each one by more than the last.

But he was also a deeply polarising figure, with a tendency to leave a trail of wreckage in his wake. There was a distinct sense of ennui forming in the minds of many voters, particularly after his decision to scrap the Commonwealth Games not much more than a year after announcing the event.

So forceful was his personality, so dominating was his role in the cabinet, in many ways this has not been a “Labor government” per se, even if its policies have adhered to Labor values. Rather, it has been an “Andrews government”.

This could work as an advantage to his successor. Whoever it is, they might benefit simply because they are not Daniel Andrews.

This isn’t to say there aren’t some huge political challenges. State debt, already the highest in the nation, is expected to rise from about $116.7 billion in net terms currently to $171.4 billion – equivalent to almost one-quarter of the state economy – in four years. And that’s even after factoring in new levies linked to the government’s COVID Debt Repayment Plan.

That has left very little room for big new spending decisions – a financial and political constraint that will also be felt by the state opposition.

Already several big projects have been shelved, including the Airport Rail Link and the regional fast rail to Geelong.

All the while, Victoria continues to face significant social and economic challenges. Last week’s housing affordability statement – Andrews’ final big policy announcement – has created an expectation that houses will become more affordable.

Yet even if the government manages to deliver the 80,000 houses a year it has promised, this will only narrowly keep the state ahead of booming population growth. Tackling housing affordability is not something that will be easily fixed.

There is still much work to be done. Andrews’ plan to revive the State Electricity Commission hatched in the lead up to last year’s state election was terrific politics, playing to a growing sense that Victoria’s great experiment in privatisation in the 1990s has not always served the best interests of consumers battling soaring power bills.

Although few details were announced, the promise at the time was that the 4.5-gigawatt publicly owned renewable energy generator would drive down prices, help create tens of thousands of well-paid public-sector jobs and put profits back in the hands of the people.

With very little detail, the challenge for Andrews’ successor will be delivering on the rhetoric, particularly given the complexity involved in transforming the state’s electricity grid to handle a complex network of wind and solar generators dotted across the east coast grid.

Delivering on big projects such as the Suburban Rail Loop will also be tricky. The first stage alone, running from Box Hill to Cheltenham, was costed at about $34.5 billion. The actual cost of this, and other major project on the books, will almost certainly be far higher.

Andrews’ successor may not be facing a hospital pass, but it will now be a long hard run.

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