Two inconvenient truths plague the Suburban Rail Loop, and Victoria’s leaders

The comparison couldn’t be more stark.

In August, two former NSW Liberal premiers – Dominic Perrottet and Mike Baird – joined the current premier, Labor’s Chris Minns, to celebrate the opening of a multibillion-dollar metro rail project in Sydney.

From left: Former NSW Coalition premiers Dominic Perrottet and Mike Baird, with Premier Chris Minns and Transport Minister Jo Haylen at Barangaroo metro station in Sydney.Credit: Dean Sewell

Even though the project had once been the subject of a bruising political contest, Minns not only gave credit to a string of former Coalition premiers for its delivery, he even posed for selfies with his political opponents onboard one of the trains.

Now, I present this hypothetical scenario: It’s a warm spring day in 2035. Former Victorian Labor premiers Jacinta Allan and Daniel Andrews are joined by the then Liberal premier (Pesutto? Battin? Groth? Wilson? Take your pick) to travel underground from Cheltenham to Box Hill on the new Suburban Rail Loop, patting one another on the back for delivering a city-shaping project.

Excusing the fact this scene relies on a number of hypotheticals – including a Coalition victory and the first stage of the SRL being completed on time – it’s difficult to imagine such political consensus being achieved in Victoria.

Currently, the political fight over the SRL is heating up as both major parties bicker about the future of the project, and whether Victorians want it at all.

If you ask Allan, the SRL is “strongly backed by Victorians”. Announcing a second signed tunnelling contract for stage 1 of the project last week, she said, “[Victorians] have told us that this is a project that they want and need us to get on and deliver.”

That very same day, only a few suburbs away, Opposition Leader John Pesutto called for the project to be paused, claiming it is something nobody wants.

“No one supports it except Premier Allan and [Transport and Infrastructure] Minister Danny Pearson. Even senior members of her own cabinet have expressed reservations about this project and don’t want it to proceed,” he claimed.

Removing the political rhetoric, it is possible that these two opinions can be true simultaneously.

In Allan’s defence, while the Suburban Rail Loop may have been cooked up behind closed doors, Labor has since taken it to two state elections, including the party’s 2018 landslide victory.

Polling also suggests the loop is popular. Ahead of the 2022 election, a survey by Resolve Political Monitor conducted exclusively for this masthead found the majority of Victorians (53 per cent) supported the project, compared with just 18 per cent who opposed it.

In September, The Age gauged the project’s popularity again. While support had slipped to 43 per cent, backers remained a larger cohort than the 27 per cent who opposed it.

Political strategists believe this shows two factors are at play: firstly that the orbital rail project has the support of Victorians who will directly benefit from it, and those who may not use it every day but have been told for six years that it will be built and don’t want it taken away.

However, surveys also suggest there is some political ground to be gained in redirecting SRL funds to other projects. For example, when Resolve Political Monitor asked whether the rail loop should be a priority, support for the project dropped to just 16 per cent. Fifty-three per cent said they’d prefer a rail line connecting the airport.

This two-truths narrative goes some way to explaining why Liberal MPs at a state and federal level are walking a fine line when it comes to the future of the project. Instead of calling for it to be scrapped entirely, Pesutto (and most of his state and federal colleagues) are insisting it be paused until the government starts to pay down its debt.

This position acknowledges that while the Liberals think there are better uses for taxpayer cash, taking away a promised project and tearing up contracts would be problematic on election day.

It also goes some way to explaining the internal backlash against Liberal MP Dan Tehan, who found himself in the firing line from Coalition colleagues this week when he called for the project to be scrapped.

While it may be politically expedient for Tehan, who had a scare in his rural seat at the last federal election, to champion a policy under which the billions allocated for the SRL are redirected to fixing regional issues, calling for the rail project to be cancelled will probably make it harder for his colleagues in the inner-city electorates of Higgins, Deakin and Menzies to win back or retain their seats.

But it’s not just the Liberals grappling with the right policy pitch for the Suburban Rail Loop. Labor MPs – state and federal – are also concerned about Allan’s determination to push ahead with the pricey project in these fraught economic times.

The concern primarily comes from MPs who represent seats in Labor’s traditional heartland in Melbourne’s west and north and who fear the project will further fuel resentment in their seats, where voters are feeling neglected.

Ultimately, electoral success will require both parties to embrace these two inconvenient truths.

Annika Smethurst is state political editor.

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