Messy power struggle gives ammunition to Pesutto’s Liberal enemies

Never ones to give their political opponents the space to flounder, the Victorian Liberal Party is reigniting decades-old factional tensions ahead of the party’s state council this weekend.

Dangerously close to appearing like a viable alternative in 2026, the party’s moderate and conservative factions – the latter of which has retained strong links to conservative, Baptist and Mormon churches – are in a messy power struggle for positions.

Victorian Opposition Leader John Pesutto will address divided Liberals at the party’s state council this weekend.Credit: Justin McManus

The factional muscle flexing comes at the worst conceivable time.

After almost a decade in the political wilderness, the Victorian Liberal party – through some hard work and good fortune, is no longer considered a rank outsider for the next state election.

A change of premier, the cancellation of the Commonwealth Games, mounting government debt and now the CFMEU scandal are weighing heavily on the Allan government.

A recent survey by Resolve, published in The Age, showed primary support for Labor has slipped 12-point drop in 10 months, giving the state government its lowest primary vote since Resolve started tracking it three years ago.

The Coalition’s primary support is now 10-points clear at 37 per cent, which indicates the two major parties would finish close in a two-party preferred contest.

But not even that is enough to unify the party.

In the parliamentary team, the most telling difference of opinion is whether the party should be in a better position with two and bit years until polling day.

A group of MPs, particularly those from the conservative flank and others with aspirations beyond their current roles, insist the party has wasted months feuding over its decision to dump Moira Deeming from the parliamentary team and that opposition leader should be further ahead.

There is also a broader fear among MPs that the finely balanced equilibrium that the party room has achieved in the past six months will unravel when Pesutto faces off against Deeming in a defamation trial in a little over seven weeks’ time.

Both these arguments hold some truth.

But the latest resurgence of infighting, which is threatening to damage the parliamentary team, exists primarily in the party’s rank-and-file with some grassroots members straying from rational dissent into outright destruction.

The broader Victorian party is bitterly divided on policy and personalities and only seem to agree on one thing – that their factional enemies “aren’t real Liberals”, something both sides insist.

The factional stoush is playing out in the race for party president and other administrative roles, sometimes against the wishes of some candidates who are attempting to remain faction free.

Broadly, conservative forces are rallying around carpet cleaner-turned MP-turned lawyer Graham Watt, who famously refused to stand for former Australian of the Year Rosie Batty when she addressed a historic joint sitting of the state parliament, as he attempts to take the party presidency from another former MP, Philip Davis.

More moderate types were up in arms this week when conservative rivals organised an online forum described as a way of helping members “become better informed” on Wednesday night.

The event went ahead despite numerous complaints that it could breach party rules by potentially influencing members on which way to vote. When the party’s rules are circulated you know things are getting messy.

The factional divide in the Liberal Party is nothing new of course, but its strong resurgence – particularly the inclusion of conservative religious groupings – has been driven by several factors, including the ongoing Deeming issue, the inability of conservatives to accept a moderate, Pesutto, as the party’s leader, and also the policy direction of the state team.

None of which bodes well for Pesutto’s leadership.

Pesutto can’t change his political stripes, he is a moderate. Pretending he is anything else would be disingenuous and potentially catastrophic for his re-election in Hawthorn.

Time is also ticking for the opposition leader to reach any settlement with Deeming, meaning it will be up to the court to decide the winner.

But the weekend’s state conference is also threatening to expose several policy disputes that can be used as proxy wars by Pesutto’s enemies within the parliamentary team.

Not long after federal opposition leader and nuclear energy champion Peter Dutton addresses the party’s rank-and-file, members will vote as to whether Pesutto’s team should consider lifting the ban on nuclear energy ahead of the 2026 election and walk away from its net zero commitments.

Support from the membership for the parliamentary team to change its stance will further expose the gap between the party’s leadership and its base, and hand Pesutto’s enemies another weapon to destabilise his leadership.

Annika Smethurst is state political editor.

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