‘I’m flabbergasted’: Melton’s leading independent candidate buoyed by ballot draw

Melton Election Office - 16 days until Election Day

Independent candidate Ian Birchall’s campaign to snatch the seat of Melton from Labor received a major boost at Friday’s ballot draw.

The draw means Birchall will sit above both Liberal, Labor and another well-known independent in the order of candidates on the voting ballot, buoying his hopes of taking the electorate won by Labor for three decades.

Labor’s Steve McGhie (left) talks to independent Ian Birchall at the ballot draw for MeltonCredit: Jason South

Observers joined candidates Birchall, Liberal Graham Watt, Labor MP Steve McGhie, Freedom Party candidate Tony Dobran and independent candidate and local snakecatcher Jarrod Bingham at the pop-up election office in an industrial park in Melton on Friday at 1pm for the draw.

Birchall, who received 10.5 per cent of the vote in 2018 and missed out on winning the seat by 700 votes after preferences, said he was stoked with drawing second place.

“I’m flabbergasted, I thought I’d come out with number 12 again knowing my luck,” he said with a laugh. “I’ve got a Powerball ticket, I better go to the newsagents and check it.”

Melton Ballot Draw order

1. Paul Blackborrow (Shooters, Fishers & Farmers Victoria)
2. Ian Birchall (Independent)
3. Tony Dobran (Freedom Party Victoria)
4. Graham Watt (Liberal Party)
5. Richard Brunt (Family First Victoria)
6. Jason Spencer Perera (Independent)
7. Ashley Alp (Labour DLP)
8. Praise Morris (Greens)
9. Jarrod Bingham (Independent)
10. Steve McGhie (Labor)
11. Lucienne Ciappara (Health Australia Party)
12. Fiona Adin-James (Animal Justice Party)
13. Jasleen Kaur (New Democrats)
14. Samantha Donald (Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party)

Fourteen candidates have nominated for the seat, which has been labelled a target seat for Labor to try to hold in the face of growing disaffection with the party. Labor’s margin has fallen to 5 per cent, and the party’s popularity in working-class Melton has slipped at the two previous state elections.

The top spots on a ballot, which are randomly assigned by the Victorian Electoral Commission, are coveted by candidates in marginal seats such as Melton because they are believed to be advantageous for voters who donkey vote (simply number the boxes in ascending order down the ticket).

The rate of donkey votes in Victorian elections is not released by the VEC, but donkey voting in Australia in general is thought to hover about 1 to 2 per cent.

In Melton, the informal vote (votes that can’t be counted because they are incorrectly filled out or left blank) is high – about 10 per cent of all votes there at the 2018 election were disregarded as informal.

Early voting begins on Monday. Melton had been considered a three-way race between McGhie, Watt and Birchall, until late-entrant Bingham provided another strong independent option to the field.

Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Victoria’s Paul Blackborrow drew top spot, but the party only scored 0.69 per cent of the primary vote statewide in 2018 and has done no campaigning in the area, so he is not considered a serious contender for the seat.

Dobran, of the newly formed anti-lockdown inspired Freedom Party Victoria, drew number three on the ballot and said he was “extremely happy”.

“I would have taken that from the start,” he said.

Bingham, a local snake catcher and former Moorabool councillor who entered the race this week, said he was disappointed with drawing ninth place.

McGhie, who drew number 10 kept a poker face and said the draw “is what it is”.

The Liberal’s Watt, who has fourth place on the ballot, said he believed the draw was a good indication of a change of hands in the seat.

“Look I’d prefer if I was above Ian but in the scheme of things I think that having who I believe are probably the main contenders above the Labor Party means that we have a good chance of getting a representative here that actually cares about the area.”

The ballot paper draw is allocated randomly via a computer program developed by the VEC and has been used since 1999. Before that, ballot draws were conducted with wooden numbered balls pulled from a bingo barrell.

This story is part of our in-depth local coverage of the key seats of Melton, Hawthorn and Richmond at the November state election. The Morning Edition newsletter is our guide to the day’s most important and interesting stories, analysis and insights. Sign up here.