Never take a seat for granted, says Allan after byelection victory

Premier Jacinta Allan has conceded no seat is safe after Labor sustained anti-government swings in the Mulgrave byelection to replace former premier Daniel Andrews in Melbourne’s southeast.

When almost 78 per cent of ballots were counted, Labor’s Eden Foster had received support from 40 per cent of voters and would be elected on preferences despite a collapse in the primary vote of almost 11 per cent.

Premier Jacinta Allan, right, with the member-elect for Mulgrave, Eden Foster.Credit: Wayne Taylor

“No government, no political party should take one single seat for granted, and that’s what we saw in Mulgrave,” Allan said in Noble Park, in the electorate’s south, on Sunday. The electorate also takes in the suburbs of Mulgrave, Noble Park North, Wheelers Hill and Springvale.

Allan shrugged off suggestions the swing was a reflection of her leadership after ascending to premier in September when Andrews stood down from parliament.

“The Labor team knew that it was going to be a challenge, we knew it was going to be a challenge because history tells us byelections are tough for governments, byelections are even tougher when the byelection is caused by the retirement of a long-serving leader. You’ve got to work hard.”

Foster was defending a healthy 10.2 per cent margin on a two-party preferred basis. Andrews retained the seat at the last election without relying on preferences after 21 years representing Mulgrave.

The Liberal Party did not pick up all the voters turning away from Labor but improved its primary vote with candidate Courtney Mann and was expected to make the seat marginal on a two-party preferred basis with preferences from independent Ian Cook.

Based on Cook’s performance at the 2022 election — coming in second on an anti-Andrews campaign — the Victorian Electoral Commission initially distributed preferences between Labor and Cook, which favoured Labor 56 to 44 per cent. The commission said it would conduct a full preference distribution from next Monday, and party sources expected it would narrow results between Labor and the Liberals.

The opposition had hoped to lift its primary vote to the mid-20s and there was some disappointment when it settled at 21.57 per cent, a 4 per cent improvement in the seat since last year’s state election.

But it vindicated the parliamentary Liberal Party’s determination to contest the seat, and Opposition Leader John Pesutto celebrated the result after a short and low-budget campaign.

“We achieved a lot in three weeks,” Pesutto told supporters on Saturday night. “We will do it next time, my friends. This is a part of our rebuilding as we approach the 2026 election.”

Cook received almost 19 per cent of first preferences. On Sunday, he said 30 per cent of his supporters put their second vote with Labor, “which is a message that has to go to the Labor Party”.

“The issues that I stood for really need to be addressed because their own voters are saying, ‘we don’t like what we’re seeing’,” he told reporters.

Cook had a partial victory last week in the “slug gate” saga, when the Supreme Court ruled former chief health officer Brett Sutton’s decision to shut down Cook’s catering company over an alleged listeria outbreak was invalid because procedural fairness was not followed. However, the judge did not award him damages.

His team complained last week that the VEC had failed to advertise the byelection adequately, and electoral commissioner Sven Bluemmel on Thursday acknowledged the number of early votes was below what was typically expected.

The Greens were attracting 5.92 per cent of votes, while the Victorian Socialists recorded 3.77 per cent, just ahead of Family First and the Libertarians.

Allan and Foster spoke at the Noble Park Aquatic Centre on Sunday to spruik the government’s ‘get active kids’ voucher program — providing $200 grants for children to pay for club membership, registration fees, uniforms or equipment — after the cost of living proved to be the issue on voters’ minds in Saturday’s byelection.

“[As] someone who grew up here, actually swam in these pools and learnt how to swim here, it’s so great to be back here as the member for Mulgrave,” Foster told reporters on Sunday.

The 42-year-old clinical psychologist and the mayor of Dandenong on Sunday said she did not believe the swing against Labor was stronger than expected and thanked the electorate for endorsing her to represent them in parliament.

Allan said she had exchanged text messages with Andrews following the result and that the former premier supported Foster in campaign material distributed across the electorate.

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