Deeming has given Liberals the fuel to burn Pesutto. Who will dare to strike a match?

It’s been an unsparing 14 days for John Pesutto but as the defamation case brought against him comes to an end, his message is clear.

“We were all very realistic and sensible about this. It wasn’t my proceeding … and it will be over, basically, by Friday,” the opposition leader said.

Opposition Leader John Pesutto on day 12 of the trial.Credit: Joe Armao

That message was uttered at a media conference on Wednesday – his first for the trial – but it was really directed at the 29 men and women in the Liberal party room who are scheduled to return to Spring Street in 11 days, where they will pretend to be a united political outfit.

The case has split colleagues, given Labor ammunition and led to questions about whether Pesutto remains the right candidate to unite the party.

As with any time of leadership tension, it can be challenging to discern who’s telling the truth. It’s also important to be wary of the motivations of the detractors. But one thing is clear, this case has been one of the most destructive periods for the Victorian Liberal Party.

As Pesutto was reminded during a gruelling four-day cross-examination, he won the 2022 leadership ballot by only one vote and has never enjoyed a comfortable buffer of support.

But the next 11 days will perhaps prove the most crucial as to whether he can remain leader.

While the lengthy court case came as no surprise, MPs seem dumbfounded by its repercussions.

Only two MPs have truly been spared – Richard Welch and Nicole Werner – both of whom are new to parliament. Every other member of the party room has been dragged into this mess to some degree.

It’s cringeworthy stuff. Through evidence, the court has heard the leadership team thought party heavyweight Michael Kroger could be mobilised to sway two younger MPs – Brad Rowswell and Jess Wilson – to support expelling Moira Deeming. Upper house MP Wendy Lovell was meanwhile sent out to influence her colleague Ann-Marie Hermans over dinner.

Former leader Matthew Guy and former MP Louise Staley were privately pushing Pesutto to dump Deeming. And James Newbury’s anti-duck hunting stance, was – according to Deeming – threatening to blow up the Coalition.

Under oath, backbencher Renee Heath was forced to reveal she shared draft minutes of a party room meeting with Deeming as well as her colleagues Chris Crewther and Nick McGowan.

And upper house MP Georgie Crozier was forced to defend allegations she wasn’t sympathetic to Deeming’s need to get a blow wave because she herself wasn’t a mother.

At the end of the trial it’s questionable whether any of these titbits have swung a single vote, but the evidence has provided almost every MP with a reason to be angry, which is a problem for Pesutto.

At the start of the week, as Pesutto’s cross-examination dragged into a fourth day, it became clear that closing arguments may stretch into late October or even November.

This new timeline appears to have exposed the plans of Pesutto’s critics – and even enemies within his own camp – who had been confident the case would wrap up by the time Parliament was back on October 15, potentially presenting the opportunity for a leadership spill.

This revised schedule, on top of the litany of embarrassing evidence, is viewed as the motivation behind the silent assassins kicking off leadership talk during the week.

With barrister Sue Chrysanthou’s lengthy cross-examination scuttling that dream, they realised they had to mobilise if they wanted to keep the leadership spill dream alive when parliament returns.

The trial’s extension may have bought Pesutto time, but there remains a deeper and more embedded split in the party – between those who believe Deeming never should have faced punishment for attending the Let Women Speak rally and those who are convinced it was grounds for expulsion.

Some MPs who voted to expel Deeming now concede it may have been a tad premature, and evidence presented during the trial has only reinforced that view.

Even if Pesutto wins the defamation case, this will remain a sore point, particularly if the judge is critical of the motion in his findings.

The case has also presented another obstacle for Pesutto’s leadership after his deputy David Southwick was exposed for making a secret recording of a private meeting without letting his colleagues know.

That decision has made Southwick a target for a spill and potentially exposes Pesutto and the wider leadership team to a ballot.

At this stage, speculation that support for Pesutto has slipped remains just that. Until there is a vote, his numbers are untested.

There remains a strong belief among MPs that while there is no shortage of reasons to replace their leader, there is still some difficulty in finding an MP brave enough to bring on a spill motion.

Ultimately, power is not given away – it must be seized, and Pesutto is not going to walk away. But to remain in the role he has some work to do over the next 11 days.

Annika Smethurst is state political editor.

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