Train dispute and chauffeur scandals: NSW Labor takes a hit

NSW Labor’s primary vote has collapsed to 29 per cent – its lowest level since 2021 – after a rocky start to the year including a bitter industrial dispute with rail unions and a scandal involving misuse of ministerial drivers.

The state government trails the Coalition by nine points, although Chris Minns remains preferred premier with 35 per cent of voters, compared to Opposition Leader Mark Speakman, who is on 14 per cent.

The exclusive survey, conducted by research firm Resolve Strategic, also reveals that one-quarter of voters want the NSW government to stand its ground and refuse the rail unions’ demands, which include a one-off $4500 payment struck under the Coalition.

A little under a half of voters (43 per cent) think the government should negotiate a better deal with train drivers and guards, while only 16 per cent think NSW Labor should accept the rail unions’ ultimatum.

The government and the rail unions have been locked in an industrial battle for nine months, which hit a crisis point this month when talks broke down at the eleventh hour.

The following morning, hundreds of train drivers called in sick, plunging Sydney’s rail network into chaos and leaving commuters stranded on trains and platforms. The government took the unions to the Fair Work Commission, where it scored a win in that unions must halt all action until July 1 while parties resume talks.

As well as the ongoing train imbroglio, Minns lost his close ally and former transport minister Jo Haylen from cabinet this month after she resigned over a ministerial driver scandal.

Haylen was forced to quit the frontbench after it was revealed she used a taxpayer-funded driver to travel, with Housing Minister Rose Jackson, to a boozy lunch in the Hunter Valley on the Australia Day weekend.

Haylen also conceded she had used a ministerial driver to take her and her husband to the wineries on a separate occasion, but insisted she did work on that trip.

Resolve director Jim Reed said NSW Labor had taken a significant hit to its primary vote, probably in part because federal Labor was damaging the state party’s brand.

“Labor have rarely dropped this low in their primary vote, but it’s particularly unusual because the premier’s ratings for likeability and leadership are so high,” Reed said.

“When we delve into the comments, voters often praise his stances on antisemitism and housing, but we also find lots of criticism on federal Labor that appears to be colouring people’s views at a state level.”

The last time NSW Labor’s primary was as low as 29 per cent was in September 2021, when it was in opposition and Gladys Berejiklian was premier. When Labor defeated the Coalition in March 2023, it won with a primary vote of 37 per cent.

The Resolve survey was conducted between February 18 and 23, just days after Sydney was brought to a standstill when train drivers called in sick en masse.

Start the day with a summary of the day’s most important and interesting stories, analysis and insights. Sign up for our Morning Edition newsletter.