By Max Maddison
A review into the Liberal Party’s NSW 2023 election loss warned it cannot rely on the same rusted-on voters to win, while giving the ALP a “monopoly … on the future of the planet” and the “virtues of empathy and compassion” would undermine long-term success at the polls.
Eight months after Chris Minns claimed victory for Labor after 12 years of Coalition power, the NSW Liberal Party has yet to publicly release the review into the election loss. A chapter of the document, obtained by the Herald, reveals concerns about the party’s future electoral strategy.
The NSW Liberal Party election review found Labor’s cost of living narrative was vastly superior to the Coalition’s.Credit: Janie Barrett, James Brickwood
“Allowing the ALP to claim a monopoly on areas like the future of the planet, virtues of empathy and compassion, support of opportunity and aspiration for youth and migrants, is hardly a recipe for success,” the review warned.
“It is surely about how, not whether, we manage major subjects of contemporary public interest.”
With Liberal MPs briefed on the review in mid-October, the post-mortem blamed former prime minister Scott Morrison, internal party dysfunction and an “It’s Time” factor after three Coalition terms in power.
Led by former NSW premier Nick Greiner and former NSW MP Peta Seaton, the review commissioned Republican Party researcher and strategist Kristen Soltis Anderson to identify strategic issues confronting the party’s electoral prospects.
NSW premier Premier Dominic Perrottet on the state election day.Credit: Flavio Brancaleone
She found several issues with the way the NSW Liberal Party was approaching elections: primarily, a fundamental disconnect with Australia’s Millennials and Gen Zs, both of whom were breaking strongly away from the party, and an overreliance on rusted-on voters.
This trend was accentuated among young women, who were the less likely to vote Liberal, with only one in four women aged 18-34 voting Liberal during the 2023 state elections in seats contested with Labor or Teal candidates, post-election polling analysis undertaken by Crosby Textor showed.
Soltis Anderson argued the party could not rely on voters who said the main reason for siding with the Liberal Party was because they are “the party I identify with the most” or “I always vote for the same party”.
“Relying on habitual partisans alone makes winning a challenge, and finding a compelling way to bring new people to identify with the party is key for building a sustainable long-term majority,” she concluded.
A core challenge confronting the party was elevating “young, diverse and female candidates”, with Soltis Anderson identifying that the difference between the prominence of women in Perrottet’s ministry (22 per cent) versus Minns’ shadow ministry (48 per cent) was extensive.
The review noted the factional infighting that erupted over the Liberal Party’s Legislative Council ticket in the run-up to Christmas in 2022, saying the internecine warring over Perrottet’s efforts to insert more women into the upper house compounded perceptions of a woman problem.
“Adding to the challenge is the fact there was some degree of public disagreement over the best way to handle gender representation, putting even more attention on the gender issues facing the party even if there were efforts made to boost numbers of women candidates,” Soltis Anderson wrote.
Even on issues traditionally favourable to the Liberal Party, like the economy, Soltis Anderson argued the party’s impersonal, macro-level messaging on the cost of living was outshone by the Labor Party.
“While Liberals maintained an advantage over issues like long-term economic planning, in the immediate term, it was Labor who dominated pocketbook matters,” she found.
Labor’s cost of living narrative was particularly pertinent among young voters, with the party’s plan to ease cost of living the most recognised policy among men and women aged 18 to 34, “with no other policy coming close”.
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