We thought Trump was dragging down Peter Dutton. Now we know why

Donald Trump was seen only months ago as a disruptive force who brought huge danger to Anthony Albanese at this election campaign.

But things changed when the US president brought chaos and confusion to world markets and became an economic risk to Australia with his tariff policies.

Now we have hard data on how this is reshaping the election – and hurting Peter Dutton at the halfway point of the campaign.

We have hard data on how the US president is reshaping the Australian election.Credit: James Brickwood

Voters see a risk from Trump for both the prime minister and the opposition leader because the task of leading Australia through these times will get only harder.

The key point is that 33 per cent of all voters are less likely to vote for Dutton because of their views about Trump. Only 21 per cent of all voters say they are less likely to vote for Albanese for the same reason. The net impact is a drag on support for Dutton.

This would be only a minor indicator in the Resolve Political Monitor if everything else was going Dutton’s way. But it is not. Dutton and the Coalition are losing ground on every key measure at the halfway point of this election campaign.

Australians can see how this campaign is going: 54 per cent say they expect Labor to win the election, while 23 per cent tip the Coalition. The sense of a Labor victory has not been this high in the Resolve Political Monitor for almost two years.

Every day, it seems, even more Australians regard Trump as a threat to the country. Only 40 per cent of voters said his election as president was bad for Australia when we asked the question after his victory in November, but that rose to 60 per cent in March and now stands at 68 per cent.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton shake hands before their debate on April 8.Credit: News Corp Australia

This might have helped Dutton if he had responded differently. Early in the Trump presidency, 34 per cent of respondents said the opposition leader was the best leader to deal with Trump, while only 18 per cent said the same for the prime minister.

This was seen at the time as a verdict on Dutton’s strength when he was accusing Albanese of being weak. The Labor theory, however, was that this merely showed that many Australians thought Dutton was more likely to get along with Trump because he was more like Trump.

In other words, what seemed like a positive for Dutton quickly turned into a negative once Trump’s tariffs took effect on the global economy.

There is no cut-and-dried line between conservatives and progressives on these findings. A clear majority of Coalition voters – 58 per cent – say Trump is bad for Australia. The Trump cheer squad is now a very small club.

This explains how the Trump effect drags down Dutton. It extends across political lines because Trump is so deeply unpopular. The Resolve Political Monitor finds that 35 per cent of undecided voters are less likely to vote for Dutton because of Trump, and 36 per cent of voters in marginal seats say the same.

Donald Trump is unpopular even with Coalition voters. Credit: Getty

The impact on Albanese is lower: 24 per cent among uncommitted voters and 23 per cent in marginal seats.

The opposition leader was too reluctant for too long to disagree strongly with Trump. He sent a signal to Australians that he liked some of what he saw in the returning president.

A key moment came on January 25, when Dutton appointed Jacinta Nampijinpa Price as shadow minister for government efficiency – about seven weeks after Trump appointed billionaire Elon Musk to a similar job. There is nothing foreign about the idea of saving money from government departments – and there is an overwhelming case for a tighter budget – but Dutton and his colleagues charged eagerly behind the American crusade to sack staff.

Senator Jacinta Price told an audience on Saturday she wanted to make Australia great again, echoing the MAGA slogan. Credit: James Brickwood

Then, on February 6, Dutton described Trump as a “big thinker” in a radio interview when asked about the president’s plan for American control of Gaza – an idea roundly rejected by most leaders.

Albanese was cautious about Trump as well. He would disagree mildly on some policies and avoid getting personal. But he avoided overt praise.

Trump is not the only factor at work at this election, but his impact on Dutton is now abundantly clear. This election may well be remembered for the way Dutton played with the flames from the White House and burnt his campaign.

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