We don’t yet know who will win the election, but who won the campaign is clear

It is too soon to declare whether Anthony Albanese or Peter Dutton has won the election, but there is no doubt about who has lost the campaign.

The opposition leader has fallen badly behind in the final Resolve Political Monitor before the election, and he has very little time to climb back into contention.

One of the big changes in the campaign has been voters’ attitudes towards the leaders. Credit: Marija Ercegovac

Victory for the Coalition is not impossible, but it will take a bigger miracle than Scott Morrison gained as prime minister at the 2019 election.

Voters thought Dutton and the Coalition were the best choice to lead the country as recently as February, but everything changed when the formal campaign began at the end of March. His lead evaporated when voters focused on the two options.

Dutton was like a new appliance at the homewares store: he seemed like a good choice until buyers took him down from the shelf and read the details on the box. Many of them thought about it, checked the Google reviews, and then decided to stick with what they had.

This does not mean Albanese has triumphed in the battle for hearts and minds. The prime minister has gained a grudging acceptance – at best – from voters after the damage to household finances from inflation over the past three years.

So there is an element of doubt in these results. Labor leads the Coalition by 53 to 47 per cent in two-party terms in this survey, but it does not have a comprehensive lead on all fronts.

Dutton and the Coalition lead by 37 to 29 per cent when voters are asked to name the best side to manage the economy. They lead by 39 to 28 per cent on national security. They lead by 37 to 25 per cent on migration, and by 35 to 23 per cent on managing crime.

Yes, Dutton has made a series of backflips and reversals on working from home and electric vehicles, while also coming up with ideas that disappeared soon after being announced, such as tax breaks for business lunches. Many voters still like what he promises.

The big turnaround for Labor has been on keeping the cost of living low. It is not winning, because voters prefer Dutton and the Coalition by 31 to 28 per cent, but it is only behind by three percentage points. Albanese and Labor were losing badly on this question all last year. They closed the gap before it was too late.

What happened? Albanese pledged $8.5 billion for Medicare at the end of February and $644 million for urgent care clinics in early March. A cyclone struck, so Treasurer Jim Chalmers released a budget on March 25. He included sweeteners like energy bill subsidies and simpler tax deductions.

Most importantly, Labor offered a small personal tax cut to show it was listening to households about their financial pain. And Dutton vowed to scrap it.

The gains for Labor and Albanese in the Resolve Political Monitor have come in the wake of those fateful decisions. In these numbers, and in other polls, Dutton was losing the campaign from the moment it began.

Again, there is a key caveat. Labor only has a slight edge over the Coalition on some key questions. When voters are asked about the tax packages from either side, including the fuel excise relief and one-off tax offset from Dutton, they prefer the Labor package by 37 to 34 per cent.

The government’s lead is also slim on housing: 35 per cent prefer the Labor package and 29 per cent favour the Coalition.

But the personal factors are far more important – and this is where Dutton has suffered most during the campaign. He had a positive net performance rating in February, but things changed in March on the regular question from Resolve about whether he was doing a good or a poor job.

Dutton’s net rating slipped again in the last fortnight – down from minus 18 to minus 24 percentage points.

“We find that voters are primarily focused on issues and the leaders, not detailed policy,” says Resolve director Jim Reed.

“Leadership has been one of the biggest turnarounds of the extended campaign, with Albanese regaining a lead as preferred leader and Dutton descending to his previous low point on net performance.

“It’s quite remarkable what the effect of the campaign blowtorch has had in the context of international uncertainty.”

That last point is important because Albanese has an advantage when voters are asked about US President Donald Trump. A majority of voters think Trump is bad for Australia. When voters are asked whether this makes them more or less likely to vote for Albanese or Dutton, the downside for Dutton is greater. The results were in line with the same question two weeks ago.

The more voters saw of Trump, the more they turned away from Dutton. The victory for Mark Carney in the Canadian election on Tuesday highlighted the way Trump has become a gift for incumbents.

There are several days to go, and anything can happen in an election campaign. There is no such thing as a uniform swing, so the latest Resolve Political Monitor is not a predictor for the outcome in dozens of very different seats on Saturday night. The survey is a snapshot of the national mood over the past five days, and it is subject to statistical error, like all polls. This one has a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points.

Albanese has the upper hand because the Labor lead in two-party terms is greater than this margin of error. Dutton faces an enormous challenge in rebounding from being behind by 47 to 53 per cent.

Morrison gained a miracle victory when the last poll in this masthead before the 2019 election showed he was behind by 49 to 51 per cent. Dutton now needs an even bigger miracle.

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