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Victoria’s hot seats LIVE updates: Far-right agitators turn up to pre-poll voting booth in Brighton; Safi’s NDIS business faces watchdog probe

We take an in-depth look at the election campaign and the issues that matter to voters in the key Victorian seats of Wills, Goldstein, Kooyong and Bruce.See all 10 stories.

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Monique Ryan reflects on the campaign drama in ‘sleepy hollow’ Kooyong

In the fading light of the final hour before the Malvern pre-poll booth closed for good, I caught up with Monique Ryan – the Independent MP for Kooyong – to ask what she’s taken away from what’s been a wild campaign in Kooyong.

Half-joking but half-not, I asked her why has Kooyong been the most dramatic electorate in the country?

“I don’t know where it all came from,” she laughed. “Traditionally, it’s sort of a sleepy hollow, but it has been a very strange election campaign – and much of the drama has been unexpected.”

Independent Kooyong MP Monique Ryan in the final hour of pre-polling for the 2025 election in Malvern.

Independent Kooyong MP Monique Ryan in the final hour of pre-polling for the 2025 election in Malvern.Credit: Rachael Dexter

She’s not wrong. From her husband caught on camera stealing opponent Amelia Hamer’s sign, to a surgeon filming himself joking about “burying” her, to controversies over Hamer’s real estate and finances; empty chairs at forums, neo-Nazis and far-right types rocking up to disrupt forums and polling booths (including one being struck in the face by an elderly resident); and, finally, a brouhaha over A-frames that landed in the Supreme Court just yesterday – Kooyong has had a big few weeks.

On the far-right incidents, Ryan said: “I don’t think it’s Kooyong [necessarily]… but I think it’s symptomatic of some concerning trends that we’re going to have to think about and talk about as a society.”

We also spoke about the other saga that’s defined the campaign locally – the corflute arms race.

A council officer removing a Liberal Party sign in Kew on Wednesday morning.

A council officer removing a Liberal Party sign in Kew on Wednesday morning.Credit: Rachael Dexter

Ryan confirmed her team had tried to broker a signage truce with the Liberal Party before pre-polling began, proposing limits on both volunteer numbers and signage volumes.

“There was a sort of balance agreement last time (in 2022),” she said. “A sign limit, a volunteer limit. And we tried to do something like that again.”

But this time, the deal didn’t hold.

“It got pushed,” she said. “This has really been out of control, and I think it frustrates people.”

She acknowledged her own campaign had “a lot of signs out here” – and said the cycle of one-upmanship fuels itself.

Liberal candidate for Kooyong Amelia Hamer hits back after Ryan’s husband Peter Jordan was filmed removing one of her campaign signs.

Liberal candidate for Kooyong Amelia Hamer hits back after Ryan’s husband Peter Jordan was filmed removing one of her campaign signs.

“You think – if they’ve got 50 and I’ve got one, does that matter? They’ve got 50 vollies [volunteers] and I’ve got two, does that matter? You don’t know if it matters or not, but you don’t want to get left behind, just in case it does matter. I think it’s just human nature … but I think we do need to look at it [structurally].”

Ryan also wants broader reform of how we vote – especially around pre-polling.

“If people want to vote early – and clearly they do because they’ve voted with their feet – then we need to have more pre-poll sites and fewer polling places on the day,” she said.

“We don’t need 45 booths tomorrow. Half of Kooyong has already voted.”

She praised the Australian Electoral Commission for doing its best under pressure, but noted that sites like the Kew booth – surrounded by traffic – weren’t ideal.

“They’re underfunded, and they just have to [lease] what they can at short notice. It’s hard.”

And finally: how’s she spending the night before election day?

“Well my son is in a play tonight which I should get to because I probably won’t get there tomorrow,” she laughed. “But I think I’ll probably go home and have a hot bath and watch the footy.”

A socialist veteran makes her third bid in Melbourne’s north

If you vote in the northern suburbs seat of Wills, Sue Bolton may be a familiar face — on Saturday, she’s running again as a socialist candidate, her third consecutive attempt.

Bolton might be dismissed elsewhere as a fringe candidate. But in Wills, where the 64-year-old has served four terms as a Merri-bek councillor and built a reputation through decades of activism, her presence carries weight – especially in a contest where the war in Gaza and cost-of-living pressures are dominating political conversations.

Bolton started her career as a bus driver and public servant – where she says she witnessed firsthand the struggles of the working class.

Wills candidate Sue Bolton in Victoria Street Mall, Coburg.

Wills candidate Sue Bolton in Victoria Street Mall, Coburg.Credit: Justin McManus

That experience sparked years of grassroots activism. Bolton, who lives in Glenroy, is now well known locally for her advocacy.

Bolton says that while COVID overshadowed the last election, this time in Wills the defining issue for many voters she spoke with during pre-poll is the Middle East.

“What we didn’t have in 2022 was the genocide in Gaza,” says Bolton, who always wears the Palestinian keffiyeh as she hands out her Socialist Alliance how-to-vote cards.

“I think as an issue in this seat, it is burning more brightly than any one thing in previous elections I have stood in. It’s like the Vietnam War; people are thinking about why rich nations like Australia are refusing to implement sanctions that might stop it.”

She also says cost of living concerns are being raised more often than during her previous Wills or council campaigns.

The capitalist dream — work hard, get a good job, buy a house — is entirely gone for many, she says.

“People on good incomes here, often they can’t buy a house or find a rental, let alone people on the minimum wage or JobSeeker.”

Asked why she was running despite the odds, Bolton said she still had a chance of winning.

“I might have less of a chance than other candidates, but we don’t feel that other parties standing in this seat represent what’s needed to address any number of crises.”

Safi’s NDIS business faces watchdog probe

The NDIS business of the Liberal candidate for Bruce, Zahid Safi, faces a fresh investigation by the industry watchdog.

The NDIS Quality and Safeguards Commission confirmed it had an active investigation into Willow Support Services, and was “looking into concerns” regarding an “open complaint”, but could not comment further.

The weatherboard house formerly promoted by Willow Support Services as a disability support service location.

The weatherboard house formerly promoted by Willow Support Services as a disability support service location.Credit: Charlotte Grieve

These investigations typically relate to quality of care and business management. Safi, who did not respond to requests for comment about the new probe, is the sole owner and director of Willow.

A commission spokesperson said they could not respond to questions about a specific business, but generally said all participants have “the right to access safe and ethical supports and services”.

“The NDIS Commission can take serious action against providers not fulfilling their duties to NDIS participants,” the spokesperson said.

The move comes after Safi’s company was cleared over separate complaints from a support worker and a parent over the treatment of a man living with autism in its Narre Warren South accommodation.

The Age can reveal one of the unsuccessful complaints was lodged last February with the NDIS Quality and Safeguards Commission, over the man’s treatment.

Another complaint was lodged by the parent with the Victorian Disability Workers Commission in the same year, and was also dismissed.

The parent was told without the involvement of her son, who lives with several disabilities, no action could be taken.

The NDIS commission complaint was authored by independent support worker Cody Stonehouse, and lodged by the client’s mother, who has asked not to be named to protect the privacy of her adult son.

While no action was taken, the mother was told the information would be used in future probes.

The mother said she was contacted by the NDIS Commission on Friday after inquiries by this masthead.

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She was asked to resubmit Stonehouse’s complaint, she said, as the regulator has launched a review of potential conflicts of interest in NDIS providers that offer both property and support services.

The commission’s response to the mother last September also highlighted the regulator was managing a “dramatic increase” in complaints with some languishing for “a long time”.

Stonehouse’s complaint, which was also sent to a co-worker, obtained by this masthead, outlined a string of allegations against Willow including under-staffing, over-charging and poor communication.

“It’s my professional opinion … that WSS is engaging in unethical and potentially fraudulent practices, which in turn, is impacting [the client’s] mental health,” Stonehouse wrote, highlighting an alleged discrepancy between the charged hours and services provided.

“Ultimately, I feel that the property that [the client] was living in was a toxic environment for him and has caused more damage to his mental health than good.”

Jody Turncliffe, who has worked in disability for 30 years, and is familiar with the case replied: “Thank you so much for this thorough chronology of your experience and observations of WSS ... your statements, in my view, constitute a number of breaches and poor practice by WSS as an NDIS Provider.”

In an interview, Stonehouse said “nothing was up to scratch” at Willow Support Services compared to the more than dozen other NDIS providers he has worked with over the past six years. He also resubmitted his complaint to the NDIS Commission on Friday.

“It was pretty awful if I’m going to say the least,” he said.

The man’s mother told this masthead the experience dealing with Safi’s company had been incredibly stressful.

“It was an absolute shitshow. It wasn’t good for [my child], it wasn’t good for us,” she said.

This masthead sent a copy of the NDIS Commission complaint to the Liberal Party and Safi, with questions about quality of care offered. A Liberal Party spokesperson issued a statement defending the company.

“In November of last year, Willow Support Services (WSS) underwent a routine audit by the NDIS Quality and Safeguard Commission and was found to be compliant with NDIS rules and regulations,” the party spokesperson said.

“During [its] time as the support service for the client in question, WSS was committed to providing the highest quality care.”

NDIS Quality and Safeguards Commission’s then-acting commissioner Michael Phelan responded to the joint complaint last September stating no action would be taken, but intelligence would be used in future investigations.

“Since the NDIS Commission started in 2018, we have experienced a dramatic increase in the number of people contacting us to request assistance,” Phelan wrote in an email addressed to the parent.

“This has resulted in us needing to work through many thousands of complaints, some of which have been in our queue for a long time.”

This masthead visited the Narre Warren property last month to find it was no longer being used as NDIS accommodation.

An advertisement for the property marketed as “supported independent living” has since been removed from Willow Support Service’s social media page.

The company continues to offer accommodation services in Melbourne’s south-east, a Liberal source, not authorised to discuss the matter publicly, said.

The company’s website claimed it employed more than “50-plus professionals” although when queried Safi’s spokesman said that included past and present contractors as well as staff.

Other companies previously owned by Safi published fake reviews and used outdated addresses.

Labor senator Jana Stewart referred Safi’s businesses to the NDIS Quality and SafeguardsCommissioner and other regulators for investigation in April, citing concerns with the fake reviews and deregistered companies.

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Who are the minor parties in Wills?

From a candidate in the top 0.05 per cent of Kylie Minogue fans globally (according to Spotify) to pub knitting nights and competitive sailing, the minor party candidates in Wills bring colour as well as conviction.

Their platforms range from legalising cannabis to a universal basic income, and from slashing fuel taxes to defying global institutions.

Some want to cool the planet, others to cool political hatred—but none are content with a two-horse race. Here’s what they stand for, in their own words:

Margee Glover from Legalise Cannabis.

Margee Glover from Legalise Cannabis.Credit: Clay Lucas

Bruce Stevens for One Nation.

Bruce Stevens for One Nation.Credit: Clay Lucas

Rachel Versteegen from Libertarian Party.

Rachel Versteegen from Libertarian Party.Credit: Clay Lucas

Owen Miller from the Fusion Party.

Owen Miller from the Fusion Party.Credit: Clay Lucas

Far-right agitators turn up at pre-poll voting booth in Brighton

By Cara Waters and Sherryn Groch

Far-right agitators have turned up at pre-poll voting centre at St Stephen’s Anglican Church in Brighton, setting up loudspeakers directly across the road from the polling station.

A group of three men, including Matt Trihey, all dressed in black set up speakers and flags, including the Australian flag and Eureka flag.

Matt Trihey of the “National Workers Alliance” at a pre polling booth in Brighton.

Matt Trihey of the “National Workers Alliance” at a pre polling booth in Brighton.Credit: Cara Waters

They had a sign saying “National Workers Alliance” and played loud music before speaking out against Liberal candidate Tim Wilson and incumbent teal MP Zoe Daniel who they said failed to debate them.

Police officers were seen speaking to the men, who packed up after about an hour.

Victoria Police said they responded to reports of a dispute between two groups of people at a pre-polling location in Brighton on Friday, but there were no reported assaults or injuries.

Police speak to men.

Police speak to men.Credit: Cara Waters

“Officers were told that the groups engaged in an argument regarding the use of a megaphone about 4.15pm,” a spokesperson said. “On police arrival the two groups remained separated. Officers remain on scene to ensure there are no breaches of the peace.”

Trihey gatecrashed a Kooyong candidates forum earlier in the campaign, which descended into chaos when Trihey began yelling about immigration.

Trihey disrupted a Kooyong candidates’ forum at Kew library on April 23.

Trihey disrupted a Kooyong candidates’ forum at Kew library on April 23.Credit: Rachael Dexter

Trihey and his self-described “nationalist” group, the National Workers Alliance often hosts events frequented by neo-Nazis, though Trihey has previously denied being a neo-Nazi himself.

It’s the latest in a series of co-ordinated stunts on the campaign trail by far-right agitators and neo-Nazis as they seek to hijack the national debate.

Police are currently investigating neo-Nazis who impersonated the Liberal Party at a Kooyong pre-polling centre on Wednesday, handing out antisemitic campaign pamphlets.

Sunshine, long lines and split votes: Kooyong’s final pre-poll mood

There’s a vibe in the air in Kooyong today as if it’s the final day of school: it’s sunny, the weary volunteers are smiling, and the lines are long. You can feel it – we’re almost there (thank god).

The queues at the Kew pre-polling booth are the longest I’ve seen all fortnight, with some voters waiting more than 40 minutes. There seems to be a kind of false economy going on – many people say they think voting today will save them time tomorrow. However, the number of booths in Kooyong explodes by 40 tomorrow for election day, and voting will probably be quicker, especially for savvy booth-hunters who know how to dodge any chaos. But the sunny weather and the promise that we can all soon move on with our lives have voters already in a noticeably better mood.

Toby the Burmese mountain dog is the star of the show at pre-polling in Malvern.

Toby the Burmese mountain dog is the star of the show at pre-polling in Malvern.Credit: Rachael Dexter

After the dramatic signage saga that played out in the Supreme Court yesterday, things were also notably more orderly at the booth today. Even though the court ruled everyone could have more than one A-frame, today it looks like Monique Ryan’s team has taken the moral high ground and stuck with one, while the Liberals had plenty. But all A-frames have been lined up neatly, and Boroondara’s sign police seem nowhere in sight.

It’s been difficult to get voters to stop and chat in Kooyong during the campaign (I’ve tried not to scare folks off!), but today I’ve managed to nab a few – on the condition of no photos or surnames. The fascinating mix of views and backgrounds I found speaks to why this contest looks like it is going to be so tight. Ryan’s camp believes there could be just 200 votes in it.

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First up was 24-year-old Lachlan and his mum (who didn’t want to give her name or age), a perfect generational contrast.

They voted together, but for opposing candidates. Lachlan voted for independent incumbent Ryan – his second time doing so after the 2022 election – while his mum voted for Amelia Hamer, saying she’s a long-time Liberal supporter. Both had made up their minds before arriving.

Lachlan said his vote was driven by climate concerns and a desire for long-term thinking in policymaking: “I think the most pressing issue right now is the cost-of-living crisis, but also balancing more intergenerational efficiency – looking into the future in terms of what policies are being made now that are going to affect things in the future, like environmental considerations, like sustainability, a lot to do with climate change.”

He added that although independents hold limited formal power, he thinks Ryan has used her voice effectively:“I don’t know if they’re able to do that much as they only have one vote. But the power that she has, I think she’s done a good job in advocating for more government transparency and really promoting climate change.”

There were long queues in Kew.

There were long queues in Kew.Credit: Rachael Dexter

Lachlan’s mum said that as a small business owner, the Liberal Party’s platform remained more relevant to her.

“I believe the Liberal Party is promoting help [to] the small business owners more than the Labor Party. Not that I have anything against the unions, but it’s more relevant to me.”

Soon after, I spoke with a woman in her 60s who didn’t want to give even her first name but told me she was voting for Ryan again after backing her in 2022. She had previously voted Liberal. “Simple – the lack of initiative on climate change from both parties, really.”

Then came Lauren, 33, voting with her 10-month-old daughter strapped to her chest. She described herself as a swinging voter who’d made her decision before arriving at the booth. This time, she went with the Liberals – citing personal and financial concerns.

The queue in Malvern

The queue in Malvern

“This is probably the hardest election that I’ve had to vote in because Labor and Liberal policies aren’t that different. So it was really a matter of prioritising what I need right now.

“Firstly, obviously, I’m a new mum, so I have to look towards what her future is going to look like. Also cost of living and what it means being a new parent and a property owner. It’s been a pretty challenging last 12 months.

“I also have an investment property, so I wanted some protection around that ...”

Lastly, I met a 19-year-old woman voting in her first federal election. She told me she had decided early on to vote Labor – mainly because of her opposition to Peter Dutton.

“Honestly, it was mainly just Dutton. I’d seen a lot of things that he’d been voting against, and I just did not agree with any of them, like abortion, HECS debt and housing costs and things like that.

“Look, a lot of it did come from social media and stuff like that, so it may not always be super-trustworthy, but I did do a bit of research into it, and I just really would hate for him to get elected.”

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Where to vote in Goldstein (and where to find sausages, coffee and even a flu vaccine while you do it)

One of the true joys of voting on election day is, of course, a democracy sausage freshly cooked by the local parents and friends association.

Do not fear, barbecues are being fired up across Goldstein for election day sausage sizzles, and some local schools and community groups are going beyond the standard offering.

Voting is all very well and good, but the democracy sausage is the important bit of the day.

Voting is all very well and good, but the democracy sausage is the important bit of the day.Credit: AAP

At Elsternwick Primary School, voters can pick up a democracy sausage for $4 (there is also a vegan option), cakes, biscuits, jams and chilli oil at the cake stall, or a flu jab at the walk-in immunisation clinic.

The school is hoping to attract voters with the slogan: “This won’t be the most painful thing you do all day.”

At Caulfield South Community House there will be a sausage sizzle with snags for $3.50, a garden stall selling plants, and a bake stall with “amazing cakes, relishes and chutneys, everything homemade”.

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Truth in electoral advertising is often sadly absent, but that did not stop Brighton Beach Primary School’s scrupulous honesty when discussing its election day offerings of a sausage sizzle with $3.50 sausages and a cake stall selling cakes and biscuits.

When asked whether the cakes and biscuits were homemade, the school administrator said, “some are, some are pretending they are homemade”.

Of the polling booths I contacted, the cheapest sausage on offer was $3 at Bentleigh’s Tucker Road Primary School (which will also have a coffee van on site), while the most expensive was the $4 sausage at Elsternwick Primary School.

Here’s a list of some of the most delicious places to vote in Goldstein. Please let me know if I have missed your favourite polling place (and what’s on offer) and I will update this post.

Black Rock Primary School
Sausage sizzle with sausages for $3. Bottled water also for sale.

Beaumaris North Primary School
Sausage sizzle with sausages for $5 for a sausage and a drink.

Brighton Beach Primary School
Sausage sizzle with sausages for $3.50, soft drinks for $3 and a cake stall.

Caulfield South Community House
Sausage sizzle with sausages for $3.50, garden stall selling plants and cake stall with cakes, relishes and chutneys.

Cheltenham Primary School
Sausage sizzle and cake stall. Prices unknown.

Elsternwick Primary School
Sausage sizzle with vegan and beef sausages for $4, a cake stall with cakes, biscuits, jams and chilli oil, and a walk-in immunisation clinic.

Ormond Primary School
Sausage sizzle and cake stall. Prices unknown.

St Michael & All Angels Anglican church, Beaumaris
Sausage sizzle with sausages for $3.50.

Tucker Road Primary School, Bentleigh
Sausage sizzle with sausages for $3.50 and cake stall with cakes from 50c to $3, as well as a coffee van from Breaking Beans.

The full list of all polling locations in Goldstein is available on the AEC website.

For sausage sizzle locations across Victoria check out the Democracy Sausage website, which is truly doing God’s work.

Respect, debate and one no-show mark busy pre-poll in Wills

Brunswick’s pre-poll station was packed on Friday morning, with long queues and all the candidates – except for one – there in a final push to win over voters.

The candidates and Australian Electoral Commission workers said it was proving one of the busiest days so far.

At the Davies Street polling booth, as they have been every day since last Monday, were Labor MP Peter Khalil and Greens candidate Samantha Ratnam.

Over my daily visits to the booth in the last fortnight I have never been here when Khalil and Ratnam have been absent.

Both have worked extremely hard to convince voters to place their trust in them.

While there have been instances of poor behaviour at this polling booth, the candidates themselves have simply stood on the line and presented themselves to voters – and I am not sure what else we could ask for during an election pre-poll.

The pre-polling booth for Wills, in Brunswick’s Davies Street, was busy on Friday morning.

The pre-polling booth for Wills, in Brunswick’s Davies Street, was busy on Friday morning.Credit: Clay Lucas

On Friday, it was striking to see voters directly challenging Khalil on his policies – some quite forcefully.

Socialist candidate Sue Bolton, a veteran of the 2019 and 2022 Wills elections, noted the intensity was new.

When I have quizzed Khalil about this, he has cheerily observed that this is just part of any election and kept on going.

All of the minor candidates – One Nation’s Bruce Stevens, the Fusion Party’s Owen Miller, Libertarian Rachel Versteegen and Legalise Cannabis candidate Margee Glover – were present on Friday.

The only candidate missing on Friday was the Liberal Party’s Jeff Kidney, who has not been seen once this election. He did not answer his phone on Friday morning.

All in the family: Meet Tim’s mum and Zoe’s dad on pre-poll

The pre-poll booths in Goldstein have been getting increasingly hectic, with the number of volunteers handing out how-to-vote cards often outnumbering the number of people actually voting.

Amongst the crowds yesterday at the Hampton pre-poll were a few notable volunteers, Liberal candidate Tim Wilson’s mum and over in Brighton, independent teal MP Zoe Daniel’s dad and son.

It was easy to spot Wilson’s mum, Linda Morriss, as she was wearing a badge saying “I’m Tim’s Mum!” alongside her royal blue Tim Wilson T-shirt.

Tim Wilson’s mum, Linda Morriss.

Tim Wilson’s mum, Linda Morriss.Credit: Cara Waters

Morriss had been handing out how-to-vote cards since 9am and said she had been a regular volunteer on the Hampton booth.

In a video posted to social media, Wilson said one of the most common things people said to him when he walks around Bayside is that people have met his mum at the pre-poll.

“You cannot understand our Armenian determination, our heritage, which comes from my mother’s father and means that we are fighters,” he said.

Over in Brighton, Daniel’s dad, former Essendon footballer Peter Daniel, was wearing a bedazzled teal “Zoes Dad” hat, while her son, Arkie, had one saying “Zoe’s son”.

They were quick to assure me a bedazzled apostrophe had fallen off Daniel’s dad’s hat and there were no grammatical errors in the custom merchandise.

Goldstein MP Zoe Daniel with her dad and son.

Goldstein MP Zoe Daniel with her dad and son.Credit: Cara Waters

Daniel featured even more bling with a bedazzled hat and a custom Haus of Dizzy necklace that says “Welcome to Fabulous Goldstein”, in a tribute to the famous Las Vegas sign.

Collecting pamphlets from various candidates in the queue to vote in Brighton, Sandhya Rewal said she was voting early because she had commitments on Saturday.

The major issues for Rewal this election are cost of living, security and safety.

“I have been on holidays for the last month and I went shopping yesterday, and just to fill the fridge cost $350 and that is the basics,” she said.

Goldstein voter Sandhya Rewal.

Goldstein voter Sandhya Rewal.Credit: Cara Waters

Rewal said she would prefer not to say who she was voting for.

Also in Brighton, Bronwen Behan was voting early as she was working on Saturday.

“Cost of living, rental increases and sustainability,” are the key issues this election for Behan.

“I have basically given up buying meat, I buy meat once a month,” Behan said, when asked how the cost of living crisis was impacting her. “I get vegetables delivered to my door so I don’t have to go searching for the best price.”

Goldstein voter Bronwen Behan.

Goldstein voter Bronwen Behan.Credit: Cara Waters

Behan said she would prefer who she was voting for to remain private.

At the Hampton polling booth Mary Murphy was waiting in line with Kiya Wolde, as both had a busy day on Saturday.

“For me, it is climate,” Murphy said when asked what the key issue is this election. “Environmental factors.”

Murphy said she was going to vote Greens, the same way she voted last election.

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The other key seats to watch in Melbourne on election night

By Debbie Cuthbertson

Branching beyond our four hot seats to Melbourne’s outer suburbs, there are some interesting contests to be had on election day.

In the election-eve edition of The Age’s Inside Politics podcast, chief political correspondent David Crowe and senior economics correspondent Shane Wright had some great insights into some of these potentially key seats in Victoria.

Asked by podcast host and columnist Jacqueline Maley which seats around the country he will be watching most closely on election night, first and foremost Crowe nominated McEwen, now held by Labor, in Melbourne’s outer north.

“[I’ll be watching] a lot of the city fringe electorates because we know that is where [Opposition Leader] Peter Dutton is basically staking his future because his message to the Liberals has been that we can win the outer suburban seats,” Crowe said.

“I’m thinking of places like McEwen on the northern fringes of Melbourne. And one of the big factors here for the Liberal campaign is the cost of living on families in outer suburbs ...

“[S]ome of these seats ... are seen as prime targets by Peter Dutton, especially with his 25¢-a-litre cut to fuel excise. He gets photographed every day at a petrol station for very good reason – that’s his message to those voters.”

Wright said he would also be keeping a close eye on the seat of McEwen, and one suburb in particular.

“The suburb of Doreen, this is mortgage belt central, big homes, people really heavily indebted. It has been swinging consistently to the Liberal party over the last couple of elections, even though Rob Mitchell, the local Labor member, has been able to hold on.”

Wright also name-checked the blue-ribbon Liberal seat of Menzies in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs, where there had been a swing towards Labor in part of the electorate at the previous election, as one to watch.

“We’ve looked at Bulleen as a suburb within the seat of Menzies. There’s a split in that particular suburb where there’s an older Italian-Greek population which swung nine points to Labor at the last election.”

Tight contests in seats like this could come down to swings in particular neighbourhoods, he said.

“[O]ften it can come down to booth by booth, and that’s what we’ve really picked up.”

And one last potential surprise? Wright nominates the Labor-held seat of Scullin, which takes in parts of the Hume and Whittlesea council areas in Melbourne’s outer north, where preferences from minor parties could help the Coalition.

“I think of, say, Andrew Giles’ seat in Scullin, because I lived in that area growing up ... [a] working class neck of the woods ... [where] there was a big lift in the One Nation and Clive Palmer vote at the last election.

“I don’t think we’ll be talking about how low their vote is. I think we’ll be talking about how high – and their preference flows out of One Nation and Clive’s Trumpets.”

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Original URL: https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/victoria-s-hot-seats-live-updates-cost-of-living-in-focus-in-final-week-of-campaigning-20250425-p5lu8k.html