Trump backlash shifts voters from Dutton to Albanese: poll

Voters have lifted Labor to a powerful pre-election lead of 53.5 per cent in two-party terms amid signs that some have turned away from the Coalition out of concern at the impact of US President Donald Trump on Australia.

The exclusive findings show that 35 per cent of undecided voters say they are less likely to back Opposition Leader Peter Dutton because of changes wrought by Trump, while only 24 per cent say the same of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

The shift has cut support for the Coalition to just 46.5 per cent in two-party terms – down from 50 per cent less than one month ago – and suggests that Labor is within sight of holding majority government.

Albanese has doubled his lead over Dutton as preferred prime minister, ahead by 46 to 30 per cent, after weeks of argument about competing tax policies and a sudden Coalition retreat last week on its plan to halt working from home in the public service.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in his visit to Boyer paper mill in Tasmania.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

The survey, conducted by Resolve Strategic for this masthead, shows that Labor has increased its primary vote from 29 to 31 per cent in recent weeks, while the Coalition’s has fallen from 37 to 34 per cent.

Core support for the Greens is steady at 13 per cent and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has slipped one point to 6 per cent, while support for independent candidates has risen from 9 to 12 per cent.

Dutton stepped up his warnings about a hung parliament on Monday, saying Albanese was conducting a “charade” by claiming he could form majority government, but the new findings suggest a Labor majority is not impossible.

Resolve director Jim Reed said the latest results added to the shift towards Labor in the Resolve Political Monitor at the end of March, when the government rose from 48 to 51 per cent in two-party terms.

“Voters are reassessing Albanese and Dutton right now,” he said.

“Our last poll showed Labor making gains on policy areas consistent with the budget, but this time the gains are more about political performance.”

Albanese and Dutton have sought to distance themselves from Trump and his policies during the campaign, but Labor has accused the opposition leader of copying the US president with his complaints about “woke” agendas and his decisions to cut public servants.

The dispute over Trump flared again on Saturday when Coalition minister Jacinta Nampijinpa Price echoed the president’s rhetoric by declaring she wanted to “make Australia great again” while speaking alongside Dutton in Perth.

Jacinta Price and Peter Dutton at Mount Pleasant Bowling Club in Perth on Saturday.Credit: James Brickwood

She later said she had not realised she used the phrase.

The latest survey shows that 68 per cent of voters believe Trump’s victory at the US election has been a bad outcome for Australia – up from 60 per cent who said the same two weeks ago, before investors dumped stocks in response to his “liberation day” tariffs on April 2.

The Resolve Political Monitor asked voters whether their view of Trump made them more or less likely to vote for Albanese or Dutton, posing the same question about each leader.

The survey finds that 22 per cent of voters say they are more likely to vote for Albanese, while 21 per cent are less likely to do so because of Trump.

It also finds that 14 per cent are more likely to vote for Dutton and 33 per cent are less likely to vote for him because of Trump.

“Trump equals uncertainty, and that’s really affecting Dutton’s campaign to convince people to take a risk on changing government,” said Reed.

The views are more pronounced among uncommitted voters, with 35 per cent saying they were less likely to vote for Dutton because of Trump, while 24 per cent say the same of Albanese.

The Resolve Political Monitor surveyed 1642 eligible voters from Wednesday to Sunday, generating results with a margin of error of 2.4 percentage points. The Labor lead is greater than this margin of error.

Most of the responses were received before Labor and the Coalition outlined their tax and housing policies on Sunday.

While Labor won power with a primary vote of 32.6 per cent at the last election, the Resolve Political Monitor shows the party languished for much of last year before regaining ground in the past month. Its primary vote of 31 per cent in the new survey is enough to deliver a strong two-party result after preferences from Greens and independent voters.

The Coalition gained a primary vote of 35.7 per cent at the last election and soared as high as 39 per cent in recent months, but its slump to 34 per cent presents a significant challenge with less than three weeks to election day.

Asked about Albanese in the latest survey, 45 per cent of voters said he was doing a good job and 44 per cent said he was doing a poor job, resulting in a net performance rating of one point.

While this is a narrowly positive net rating, Albanese has suffered double-digit negative ratings for more than a year.

Credit: Matt Golding

Asked about Dutton, 35 per cent said he was doing a good job and 53 per cent said he was doing a poor job, producing a negative net rating of minus 18 points. This is a deterioration from two weeks ago, when his net rating was minus 10 points.

“Being preferred leader isn’t everything, but even in our non-presidential system it’s significant,” said Reed.

“And with Albanese now outperforming Labor’s primary vote, he has become a vote winner, whereas Dutton is now a drag on the Coalition’s vote.”

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